Member Info for Lottohopes

So 16.23 high at BTC 69k give or take. Halving since, which means we should expect 16.23 at 69*2 (138k). By that simple number, today’s BTC of 98k is 71% of that. 71% of 16.23 is 11.5. So slightly below at moment given 100k barrier. Thoughts? MSTR is 10.5%, will they rebalance?

Just a quick message to fellow investors: it is incredibly painful and devastating when losses accumulate, so please look after yourself, each other. I lost huge amounts in the crypto bear market and elsewhere. Cliched as it sounds, one’s health, family and friends matter most. Everything else is recoverable or irrelevant when you zoom out. All the best 🙏🏽

Mara has chosen equity because it’s a swap of a depreciating asset (fiat) for an appreciating asset (BTC). CORZ chose debt over equity and didn’t anticipate capital markets swinging. Impossible to account for a covid or a war etc. Huge cash reserve, and ATM being tapped from Feb 24 onwards as per that quarterly release. Previous years $750m got them the GC acquisition and machines. Plenty of growth in pipeline. Main concern should be efficiency (name plate EH vs operating), which they have identified as area for improvement. Time will tell but we may see more acquisitions at compelling prices after halving.

Chaebol: thank you for sharing numbers. 19.5m shares raised $248m: that’s $12.70 give or take. The rest made up $502m which must be at $20 ie completed the full raise of 2023. Is that 222m+19.5m+25m= 267m shares?

404: thank you. Just found this which gives some clarity on why it isn’t popular.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/17/sec-frets-over-bitcoin-etfs-but-swedes-figured-it-out-years-ago.html

Just wondered what people’s thoughts are on XBT BTC. IMO it was one of the first BTC ETFs around (2015). It’s got over $8b in BTC now. I m curious why it isn’t mentioned anywhere? I know it’s no longer available to PIs in the UK. Thank you for any responses

BTC price rising exponentially (if it does) makes marginal miners come back into the game. It’s like gold prices making marginal mines/assets profitable again. Except a gold mine takes months to years to restart from moth balled phase. Whilst BTC miners just find space, energy and plug in more or less. Second difference: the amount of gold in marginal mines is huge, if gold rose to say 4K. The BTC is still finite. Which means if price of BTC spikes, the miners with no additional machines to plug in, sink as businesses faster.

@Herdie and other old timers from last cycle, hello! I am well myself 🙏🏽😊

ARB has no expansion of hashrate in pipeline. Significant debts. BTC rising into a rising network hashrate annd difficulty. Even if hashrate is untouched, halving in April 24 will reduce BTC produced here from 4 coin per day av to 2 coin per day. Being bullish on an asset is NOT the reason to buy a miner, without understanding its fundamentals. I made this error with BTC miners, copper miners etc. This lesson is a very painful one which I guess one sometimes learns themselves rather than through advice from random strangers on chat forums. The listed miners are businesses and run by people. Incompetence, bad judgement, crookedness, luck comes into play. Please do your research. There’s money to be made if you are trading even in underdogs. Good luck all

It’s too early for me with all these numbers. Hex: why would any miner keep their machine switched on, if it was producing coin at loss? They simply wouldn’t imo.

Every possible example being used to create FUD. Tulips :)) hilarious. If one is uncertain about the use case for bitcoin (the network and the token), then they shouldn’t be touching a miner. Fear is contagious, so is greed. Wait patiently and the pendulum always swings back. Good luck all

Hex: honestly I have no clue but would guess yes the immersion is not factored in. I m not from a technical background. But bitcoin mining ve exahash (as in plate capacity) is a simple calculation and MoM, the numbers have been less than satisfactory (not just here, some others too). So if the existing 1.6EH itself functions as it should (with 5% failure for ex) we should see better numbers. This is a new chapter and is exciting.

TBC first para about epic is my musings.

Hex: from todays FinnCap research note (note last sentence).

We have kept wondering what EPIC is upto. They have recently tweeted their partnership with TSMC. So they aren’t helping us with customising the Intel chips presumably. More to come from EPIC, I like the pedigree team there. Good luck all patient holders, we had a rocky 21.

? Its September 2021 order of 20k Bitmain Antminer S19J Pro machines are scheduled to be delivered and installed in batches between May to October 22. When these machines are installed, they will deliver an additional 2.0 EH/s of mining capacity. ? Its fleet swap with Core will see new Bitmain Antminer S19J Pro machines with c1.0 EH/s of nameplate capacity arrive at its Helios facility between May-July 2022. In exchange for delivery of the new machines, Argo will assign to Core the existing machines that Core hosts in its facilities for Argo with a nameplate capacity of c1.0 EH/s. It is a highly attractive deal for both sides, and it will mean that Argo will have strategic control of its entire fleet, as it will no longer have any machines hosted in third-party facilities. ? Its supply agreement with Intel for its next-gen Blockscale ASIC chips is expected to deliver an increase of 1.8 EH/s from Q4. Argo is working with a third party to design and manufacture custom mining rigs for use with the advanced immersion cooling system within its new facility. As Argo’s mining capacity scales from 1.6 EH/s at the start of FY22 to 5.5 EH/s by the end of FY22, we conservatively expect its average hash rate will be 2.8 EH/s through FY22 (from 3.2 EH/s). In our new FY23 forecast, we then expect full utilisation of the 200 MW facility will deliver an average mining capacity of 5.5 EH/s. We note that we include a limited impact of the differentiated technology that Argo is using within the facility to enhance efficiency.

Expansion was planned from 1EH to 1.6EH, the expansion plan changed on 2 occasions/got delayed with zero expansion in hash rate for nine months (Feb-Sept 21), and over £128m in dilution, via 3 raises, over the same period. Imo, this was a significant shift in strategy from hosted mining to self mining model. The poor figures in efficiency (coin/EH ratio) additionally are on account of issues in hosting plus older machines (one of the Bitmain Antminers had a 35% failure rate). It was incredibly bold (or stupid) to make this switch in the midst of a bull market and market has punished us for it. Whether it was the correct move or not, depends on how it’s executed ie the rest of this year. These are just my musings.

MARA is the worst of the lot imo. Numbers are rubbish, more importantly poor execution. They have had over 60k machines sitting unplugged since Jan 22. That’s over 35m revenue bled out monthly. If only they knew someone who has facilities with space for miners….kidding. I don’t want ARB associating with MARA.

There are plenty of share holders unhappy with aspects of execution so far. I am one of them. I didn’t just moan here and pull down sentiment. I diversified into other miners to spread risk. However I do still hold a good chunk here. Why am I still here? Because this is heavily discounted now (the time to exit has gone for me Atleast) and I still believe they will turn it around. Look at the chart in the tweet link to see how many bitcoin per EH each co produces. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. This is a numbers game. I mean that in every sense, from the miner purchased to the bitcoin produced to the cents paid per KWhr. Not squeezing every efficiency possible, hurts our profit line. I know this is the reason we are moving from hosted model to self mined. I feel the worst is behind us. Good luck all.

https://twitter.com/cazenove_uk/status/1512077316523917312?s=20&t=dh3T4XJPUjSloSWUcgcPSw

28jaczar: thank you for pointing this out. Looks like they withdrew from Pluto. I prefer this given things were getting too incestuous for objectivity. (Co founders of ARB on NFT side, ARB invested in Pluto etc).

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/nft_investments/news/rns/story/r75qn1w

Ricardo: your numbers are correct. This is beginning to generate serious cash. The issue was scaling to the point where costs drop. Sadly they haven’t scaled to 4kt yet. The grade has also started improving which tells me they are getting to the better parts of mineralisation. Look at the grades drilled last year at Minto North. Of course we will hear from bears, I don’t care much. I hold and wait.

This is an interesting deal with Core, a “win win”. In effect the older machines have been valued (minus depreciation) against the newer ones? I m thinking it actually releases capital for Argo which can be deployed elsewhere as they deem fit? But designed cleverly to avoid down time for both parties. Second question: can they overclock brand new machines? I thought the warranty was void if they did?