Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Bladey: as per my rough estimates, nearly 50% is in sticky hands, disregarding us PIs. There were HNW individuals who participated in raises on two occasions.
Mullins: it’s not on AIM. Good to see signs of life. Plenty of news ahead.
If say machine installation has progressed to 1.5EH by end of Nov, it’s not something PW can say casually in a YouTube interview. It’s price sensitive hence he politely stated, it’s going as per plan.
Jay bike: this is one explanation for the difference in coins mined and total HODL last month. We looked at the possibilities: 1. They bought some bitcoin using raised funds 2. They trade bitcoin 3. They swap bitcoin for alt coins and make some profits. I like the third option. They must be accumulating to participate in PoS. Just my conjecture
Some excellent comments on the PW interview and immersion cooling. I wonder if people noted the comment about holding bitcoin or “bitcoin equivalent”. I know we used to hold a bit of ETH. Now given PW brought our attention (albeit gently) to this fact, I wonder if we have been swapping bitcoin for other coins, and this would explain the discrepancy in bitcoin HODL number last month. In other words, if we are gearing up for staking in various coins, then it makes sense to swap out. Peter’s comment was made in the discussion about proof of stake and diversifying. Given previous knowledge of how capital rotates between bitcoin and alts, they might be achieving higher returns by rotating than passive bitcoin HODL. Just a thought.
Monkeytom: HL
To add to above: the HODL which works FOR in a bull market will work against miners in a bear. Cash flow narrows, HODL value drops, collateral loans demand coin gets sold, that could trigger further glut for coins and damage sentiment etc. So every miner needs to consider a point at which to sell coins, rather then merely accumulate. UNLESS other revenue keeps it afloat and allows that HODL to continue during lean times.
Canetoad: this is a painful realisation that Argo too has arrived at, but much earlier in this cycle imho. Hence the quest to build out a scalable data centre. Something that we can add to periodically with power and land on tap. Data centres can be used flexibly for computing, be that AI, scientific computing, machine learning etc. It’s not going to be just about bitcoin and thank God for that. Our revenue base and model HAS to be wider than mere coin mining and HODL. Otherwise there is no incentive to hold any miner shares in a bear market. In effect most miners will get dumped cyclically. Same as traditional mining stocks I guess. The next bear market is less than a year away according to most folks, even those who see 450-500k in this cycle. Who will be left holding the baby is the question. There is only a finite number of investors looking at bitcoin miners. Their money will swiftly rotate either OUT or into more diversified crypto plays. ARGO ticks that box and hence the continued gentle steady accumulation by institutions. Take a look at SLNH for the very same reasons. DYOR.
Troajan: the additional value drivers are:
1. Mine life which will see further extension
2. Near mine exploration yielding new orebodies and/or extensions to known mineralisation
3. Drilling in additional land package
4. Production going higher (It’s currently 8.5-10ktpa, we should hit capacity of 20ktpa over next 12 months)
5. Re-negotiation of gold stream with Wheaton to yield meaningful revenue from the gold we mill (we did a re-negotiation in 2019-20).
All in all Minto is significantly undervalued even at 187m CAD. It has over 3B USD in copper content. This is an integrated explorer producer and developer, gearing up. Some of above are my opinions, please DYOR folks.
CT: Find me on Twitter if you have any questions @lottohopes
Canetoad: have you looked at Soluna Holdings (SLNH on Nasdaq)? I won’t mention anything more, as it risks being construed as cross ramping.
MacF1: good point. There is a product that already reflects bitcoin price cleanly XBT BTC. They also have XBT ETH. Unfortunately the FCA restricted ordinary investors from buying in, starting Oct end 2020. They wanted to protect millions of hard working investors from the devastating implications of life changing gains such as freedom to work as they want to, reduce debt, early retirement etc. Pure co incidence I m certain that bitcoin took off from that point :)
Amanensia: I don’t understand the first thing about MMs but do understand a bit around how the psychology works. Fear, greed and boredom somewhere in between, simple levers. And market makers exploit these fully. Because the price being volatile helps trading volumes and therefore their commissions. Price being static/stable doesn’t.
Amanensia: I don’t see why you are wasting your time. Saylor sounds like a bitcoin maxi. I happen to agree with others who think the ecosystem is wide enough to accommodate more than bitcoin and consequently unwilling to put all eggs in one (bitcoin) basket. It’s about risk management, I risk being wrong but the likes of Saylor are not going to convince me otherwise.
Monkeytom: I wouldn’t be sure of that ;) it is possible there’s a collaboration still on the cards with DMG (I may be wrong but didn’t we consider a collaboration previously and change our minds on it?)
Anyways I always believed that a think tank of PIs is greater than individuals. We often find angles that escape institutions and there has always been good debate on these boards, if one ignores the noise and does ones own research. Good luck all
Monkeytom: I was wondering if the “vertical integration” includes greater autonomy over the mining pool as well as the other aspects already discussed here.
https://twitter.com/hashrateindex/status/1457801302147166210?s=20
Note how wattage per TH is coming down. Given the way technology is developing higher efficiency, the same wattage can be expected to produce more hash rate. This is as per Saylor’s views that the key advancements for miners will be technological not sheer brute force . The energy argument in FUD is going to get dismantled for various reasons. Higher efficiency. Use of stranded energy sources, mostly renewable (but could also be coal for ex) etc.
Cheers for pointing that out Kev, I stand corrected :)
Oh well, it’s churning out cash, just a matter of time imho
Kev: depends on your point of view. Regardless of delays/timeframe in listing. they are proceeding with mining, drilling nearby zones. Part of the cash is already available and being deployed. I d like to see the capacity reach the full 20ktpa by next year and copper to stay in 4s or higher. We are at barely 8.5ktpa currently.
Monkfish: plenty of us here share your frustration. We missed a golden opportunity to mine more when the China FUD dropped difficulty AND network hashrate. There are strategy errors but it’s all hindsight. I m more interested in whether there’s a coherent plan going forwards, and secondly managements capabilities in executing it in a timely manner. As things stand, ARB looks undervalued and hence an opportunity imho. I think Argo has struggled with the transition from a community like interaction with stakeholders to a more corporate set up (inevitable when co grows). Just my two pence.
At 1.6EH capacity, assuming total network hashrate grows to 175EH (it’s 165 currently), that’s about 245 coins mined a month. At 65k a coin, that’s over $190m revenue a year. Remember PlanB stated the “average” price of bitcoin should be $100k for this full 4 year cycle. But price has been well below for 18 months. In other words, IF PlanB is correct, then the rest of this cycle sees much higher prices to create a 100k cycle average. Big IF. Regardless of above optimism, we are the most prepared miner for a crypto winter. Just look at our performance in early 2020. DYOR.