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Bonker: the difference in thinking and approach towards growth was clear b/w a Mara and ARB. The biggest hitter to enter the space will be Core Scientific, and they believe in full vertical integration. Mara’s growth is focussed on mining machines and hash rate and feels somewhat myopic to me. Time will tell which approach is better.

Bonker: thank you, appreciate your chart work. It made me a decent chunk on IRR many moons ago.

The financial system as it stands relies on folks working their whole lives, paying high taxes, retirement kicked into the long grass. Whilst the super rich avoid tax. Get access to wealth generation schemes that have barriers for ordinary folks.

Now imagine younger generations not buying into that dream. Not wanting long hours. Arguing EWTD, work life balance etc. Add whole sale automation resulting in job losses. Not wanting a flat for £500,000!! Rejecting debt. Nightmare for those living off the peasants, because suddenly this whole debt enslavement mechanism collapses. It already has, because demographics in the west has changed and the only route to keep ample working age people is/was migration. But general sentiment is anti migration. All in all the riskier assets are going to attract more capital. Because the young aren’t foolish enough to keep buying the overinflated assets that made older generations wealthy. None of this is my observation. It’s general discussions from people like Raoul Pal etc

Exactly Flowerpot! It’s a rare opportunity, and the risk was/is asymmetric. Which other asset lures with the promise of 10/50/100x over a 10 year horizon? (Before people jump on my comment, the 10/50/100 x was from a 5k baseline. It may head into the millions but that will be 1-2 cycles). It’s like buying a Solgold at 3p or a GGP at .35p. It was super risky but so the upside was super good (my six year old uses the term super good :)). I like the notion of bitcoin and the crypto space being the great leveller, karmic balance being restored. Now there’s generations of folks smug about their property purchases, over the last 20/30 years and looking at youngsters who can’t afford even a flat with a mixture of sympathy and indifference….. That is a moat that only bank of mum and dad can cross. Or taking on huge debt. Salaries aren’t going to inflate. Now the same younger folk are forced to seek the next bubble which is crypto. And the moat is the inflexible thinking that many of the sadly institutionalised old timers have. Karmic balance.

The key point is that the first bitcoin ETF opens the gateway for other products to follow. So it’s just a matter of time before there is a suite of “regulated” products directly tracking bitcoin movement. Again these products will remain reserved for the well heeled so called HNW or sophisticated investor. After all the old boys don’t want to flatten the wealth inequality curve ;) Bloody joke that you can gamble in Vegas or on footie results but can’t buy into an ETF. So for ordinary folks, the miners are a great opportunity IF time horizon is long enough.

Caddor: my understanding based on what Plan B and few others with big follower numbers/credibility: a bear market is a correction in the region of 80-85%. But that’s from the blow off top. And that correction figure is deducted by some Chartists to be 47-60k. In other words the absolute bottom is 47-60k for this entire cycle. Plan B also says the AVERAGE for this entire cycle is circa 100k. We have had May 20-Oct 21 so far, much below 100k. So the rest of the cycle has to be spectacular (IF Plan B is to be believed). Can cycle still play out if front run and people have awareness etc? Who knows. Based on adoption expectations and network effects, all irrelevant. Patient hold for 2028 and beyond.

I think when miners communicate firm plans with numbers, the market reacts positively, eventually. Argo or more specifically PW has played a bit of poker and it remains to be seen whether that’s conscious nimble strategy or few missteps. I suspect a combination of both. Market hates uncertainty and previous track record of slipped timelines/change of plans have been punished. Delivering on time is now the most important step. Mid Quarter 4 is mid Nov for that 1.7EH. After all the talking, it’s now time to walk the walk. Imho only.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/10/15/jacobi-asset-management-wins-bitcoin-etf-approval-in-guernsey/

Apologies if already posted. As usual only open to sophisticated investors and minimum 1 bitcoin investment ($100,000 lol)

600T: 71MW gives 1.7EH. But we expect the Texas facility to deliver higher clock rates. And our rough maths on hash rate vs coin generated has been consistently mismatched (on lower side) because of the rather high failure rate (35%!) of the Antminers purchased in 2020. I think those machines were Bitmain f ups. Note also that we bought into GPU-One (10% equity stake now), so the general model is full integration to capture maximum value. This will prove itself over the long term imho. Right now it’s a competition of whose is bigger ;)

“While deliveries of miners may continue to fluctuate in the near-term, based on current estimates, the Company still anticipates all previously purchased miners to be delivered by mid-2022. At that time, the Company’s mining fleet is expected to consist of approximately 133,000 miners, generating approximately 13.3 EH/s.” So Mara expects 13.3EH by mid 2022 IF things go to plan.

200mw is about 6EH as PW guesstimated in Saylorspaces interview.

The real fun starts after bitcoin crosses ATH. And secondly when it crosses 100k. Psychological barriers. Plenty are on sidelines eyeing ARB but unsure about bitcoin trajectory. I always wonder why people invest in any bitcoin miner if their conviction about bitcoin’s long term future is shaky.

MacF1: the draft prospectus described that the underwriters were allowed to “stabilise” the price of the shares, using all means possible including “naked shorting” (they used those words). Because we don’t understand it fully doesn’t mean it’s not happening. I m not saying all market makers are scheming, but just that psychology is being exploited, with a bit of unfair advantage.

Is this an error because of the confusion between ADRs and ADSs? One ADR is a bundle of 10 shares. Some May recollect this was used interchangeably in parts of the prospectus (erroneously imho, but what do I know, Barclays and Jeffries suits are paid to know this)

HarChris: 100k is just the start. I don’t see Dec as the top, nor do I see a sustained bear market leading into mid 2024. Time will tell but long time preference and indifference for the noise in between, is my outlook. The pain LTHs here have experienced is temporary imho. Good luck all.

Longinvestor: I m not paid to promote Argo, I m a humble PI. I m invested in ARB, so read and re-read every bit of information available, to see how the story feels. Especially important when share price and sentiment are where they are.

Caddor: on the share register, impossible to say but for sure it’s not 95% PIs. Directors, employees participated in the raise, institutions are all below 3% (apart from Blok) so not obliged to reveal their positions. The prospectus stated 29% was held by American investors PRE IPO. Also a bit of a binary thinking that institutions will hold, whilst fickle PIs sell. The seed investors who sold down H1 21 were institutions.

I think it is this exact point because of which Argo is deviating from being a bitcoin mining pure play. It’s near impossible to keep growing market cap AND share price when one has to keep buying new machines and expanding, just to stand still in terms of % of hashrate.
Especially when one cannot fathom what other miners might do in terms of plans.

What value could we extract from proprietary software that runs mining better? Could Perry work with Navier to design an immersion cooling system or a building itself that’s better than what’s out there?

I’ve been listening to Henry Quans interview with Peter, from few months ago. His energy, his passion and of-course his genius shines through. Jim Seto oversaw 6 BILLION ASICs being shipped. He was VP of procurement at Qualcomm. Yes there are chip shortages globally but if anyone can find a supply, it’s these guys. I think people are underestimating what Henry achieved previously and the scale of ambition here. It’s to disrupt blockchain computing not just bitcoin mining and challenge the status quo of Chinese dominance as far as manufacturing goes. North America desperately needs a home grown ASIC maker and ePIC is it. Could we then envisage patents, IP that is developed jointly by ePIC and ourselves?

We are focussing on innovation and creative thinking instead of brute force and sheer size. Unfortunately the yardstick at the moment is Exahash and number of machines, number of coins mined etc. And the register is getting institutionalised as PIs sell in frustration. Partly I see the issue as Peter not fully articulating his vision of growth to the market, yet. I see July 2021 as a key inflection point. Just in June the AGM mentioned all board members getting re-elected. Then the entire board got replaced in July. We need to know how resource will be allocated, and what the other threads bring us. Things will get clearer in the coming weeks and months imho.

On mining margin, there is room to squeeze more juice out. Core scientific for ex boasts 91-93% margins via a fully integrated mining outfit. I think our aspiration is similar if not even better. (I don’t think Core ops are immersion)

Loosely yes. Recollect miners earning roughly 1000 coins a day, out of which 900 coins are virgin. But the fees are not distributed evenly. The bigger pools get bigger proportion from what little I understand. I concede I don’t “get” it all. But bitcoin and crypto is an area where lack of understanding should not translate into avoiding investing. How many investors understand a porphyry or how gold is extracted?

Add Core Scientific to those investing in Texas. It’s only valued at $4.3b pre IPO ;)

https://investors.corescientific.com/news/news-details/2021/North-American-Blockchain-Infrastructure-Leader-Core-Scientific-to-Expand-Current-Capacity-With-New-300MW-Denton-Texas-Data-Center/default.aspx

HarChris: Sorry you may already know this; a proportion of bitcoin earned (not mint bitcoin) is existing coin paid as fees for transactions. This fee may form a good chunk of total coin earned (it has been as high as double digits 10-15%). Going forwards these fees may become more significant, as the participants on the network change, and based on whether the network supports monetary transactions, trading etc. Really these fees are key to incentivise maintaining the network as mint bitcoin supply dries up. Tbh no one is clear how the network will shape up in 10/20/30 years. But recent events such as Chinese ban have demonstrated its sheer resilience.