Member Info for Lottohopes

Good progress. Regardless of initial numbers, it’s clear that many revenue threads are being pursued to get masks to bigger numbers. I still believe licensing will get these masks in sizeable numbers, to public here and in EU. The appointment of the advisor and manager to oversee production was long over due and a very positive development. Things should move faster now. Patience pays. Well done all holders. Good luck all :)

In today’s interview, PW confirmed the thinking I had put forward in this thread. Essentially the mining difficulty has lagged the march of the machines in terms of efficiency/speed. Peter confirmed also that the mining difficulty (which is adjusted every two weeks or 2016 blocks) is due to fall, for next two weeks.

So all things considered, having a lower difficulty level bodes well for miners getting their capacity upped in H1, ie ARB. Going into H2, there will be a huge number of machines coming online from various listed miners, and therefore anticipation is of difficulty level rising significantly. Of course a meteoric bitcoin price rise might neutralise the drop in profitability %. For now a stable bitcoin price at 45-50k, and difficulty level staying here suits our HODL ambitions perfectly. All imho only. Please feel free to correct me on my logic.

Solid numbers. Remember the newest machines were operational by mid Feb so we didn’t get a full month’s bump up. Going into quarter 2, we will get further machines as others have mentioned. Market tends to factor in the negative stuff as soon as it is announced. So the dilution to raise cash for Texas, the effect of options/warrants dilution is factored in. We have had derampers jumping on it, ****ging off the CEO etc. This RNS shuts them up firmly. Casting aspersions is easy, walking the walk is what this Co is doing.

As I said previously, for a co that HODLs, day to day bitcoin price is irrelevant. It makes a market because some like to trade it and market makers exploit psychology of fear and greed. But the real money is in holding patiently for next few years, not trading, imho only. New buyers may well get spiked today too, they too will see growth over next weeks and months. Good luck all

Just as a disclaimer, at this stage, bitcoin is behaving more as store of value, ie asset bit like property or gold (as Kevin says in the video I posted). So it’s NOT a currency yet. It may never become a currency and it doesn’t bother me. Its a bit like asking what can you do with a rare coin or a stamp (didn’t want Pearls to sulk). Nothing, you just hoard it and it increases in value.

What gets more interesting is how we can leverage the bitcoin we hold? Interest rates on it? Like Fiat. Or more use cases such as proof of stake etc. Plenty to read and the most important uses may not even have emerged yet. Until then its just our digital gold brick ;)

Sma11Time: forgot to add-this is 900 NEW coins added every day. There is of course transaction fees that is paid in bitcoin, which is a considerable proportion of miner profits. You can track this on various websites and going forwards, I expect ARB annual report will comment on this in some form. So fast forwards to the time where new coin mined is negligible, the network stays intact, because the miners collective incentive is no longer predominantly new coins but the fees for maintaining the network. I may be wrong, but it could be loosely compared to say a Visa network “interchange fee”. Note the manner in which Visa/banks screw over everyone. The retailer pays, the owner of the credit card pays a hefty fee. Eliminating these greedy middle merchants and decentralising this whole transaction could make the bitcoin network (or something else that comes in place of current system) the “go-to” for cash movement frictionlessly and minus all the exchange rate/regulatory hurdles currently facing money movement. Again just my novice thoughts, I m sure plenty here have a deeper understanding and I m happy to be corrected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interchange_fee

Sma11Time: 900 coins are mined every day between May 2020 (last halving) and next one in May 2024. Thereafter the reward halves to 450 coins per day for next four years etc

I think as we add newer machines, become part of a bigger “pool” and make the whole process more efficient (see Luxor’s work in terms of hash rate pooling), the probability of us cracking the solution and getting that bitcoin increases. So we can expect to have a higher likelihood of getting that bitcoin versus an older/less organised miner I suppose.

I read this interesting article that mentioned that managing a bitcoin mining business is a bit like managing a portfolio of investments. There are so many variables that each needs to be considered in relation to each other and the whole. So Peter may well be trading the coin, selling a slice when it heats up and buying back on dips for ex. This may also explain the exahash capacity varying, machines being shut down/optimised, coins mined varying month to month (obviously also related to Zcash pricing as report monthly is bitcoin equivalent).

So here’s a question to ponder: taking the ethical coin argument, could the chinese be selling their coins aggressively given lack of a market for them amongst institutions which tend to be US leaning? Anyways just my thoughts, probably mostly conjecture. “With time and patience, the mulberry leaf turns to satin.” We are paid to sit on our hands mostly. Good luck all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyukWwn9PqM&feature=youtu.be

Firstly apologies for starting a new thread. Some may recall my post few days ago-about ethical bitcoin (a bit like ethical cobalt) and the issues around bitcoin mining. Where its mined, what energy is used, the regulatory environment, the JOURNEY its taken etc. Kevin in the interview above speaks exactly about this, was somewhat humbling to see that he refers to the issues I considered independently. IMHO institutions will cherry pick where they invest in bitcoin. The beauty of bitcoin is that its entire history, its journey is recorded digitally. Who can say that about fiat?

Again, ARB comes up a winner. A transparent solid management team with operational excellence. Mining in a well regulated environment (North America). Energy sources increasingly green. And top efficiency in terms of publicly listed miners. The secret ingredient is the proprietary tweaking that the tech team does, on their machines and the input from Luxor (imho).

RC: I was reading your post earlier today and about to respond-about mining difficulty and hash rate, and the coins mined. This is my rough understanding-happy to be corrected and make no bones about the fact I m learning every day here. The three variables are in some sort of equilibrium: hash rate/difficulty, bitcoin pricing and profitability. Essentially, every miner understands that they have to keep increasing hash rate to keep up with each other. As price goes north (or even if it stays at this superb level of say 45-50k) the hash rate and difficulty will adjust as more and more miners join the fray. The amount of bitcoin mined is the same everyday ie 900 coins, but if we don’t keep raising our capacity, we fall behind and someone else gets a higher likelihood of getting that coin. For H1 21, most people agree that the mining difficulty is not set to rise to that extent that it balances out the price rise. In other words, the miners who add capacity in H1 will profit to a larger extent than H2, where difficulty will rise faster I read somewhere. Adding the newest machines means we will stay at a “technical advantage” even as difficulty rises continuously. As each miner keeps adding huge capacity, the amount of bitcoin mined per exahash has to logically REDUCE (ie we cannot just extrapolate coins mined in past and multiply). The variable that will make profitability still good enough is the rising price. In other words, if bitcoin flies to 100k, huge number of old-marginal miners come back online, huge competition for same coin, hash rate rises faster and difficulty adjusts upwards to keep block rate the same.

So what’s my conclusion for ARB? The bitcoin price staying here is good for us given our HODL policy, instead of rising too fast. Why? Because difficulty stays here, and we mine more coin given we are one of few expanding in H1. Plus we don’t sell the coin, so who cares what the price is right now?

Remember the interview: they can literally see the grid from their window on site. The location is strategic for sure and somehow don’t feel it’s merely to tap into the electricity. Let’s see how it shapes out. Its going to be an interesting year ahead. Bitcoin mining seems the most predictable part now :)

Kev: I agree there was a legal spat, but I reckon he was on to something big? He did have a billionaire’s backing initially. (not saying rich people cannot be stupid, they often are). Energy distribution, juggling supply/demand/storage seems a good space for decentralising/block chain to come in. Found this review on the topic (link below) for anyone interested. I m trying to understand the idea behind us getting 320 acres of land in Texas. I m not convinced its just to build out hundreds and thousands of ASIC miners and merely mine bitcoin, lucrative as it might be. We have already seen one piece of the the jigsaw-EPIC will have a research and development facility to work with us. This is about wider block chain application and it intrigues me. Sorry it could be nothing, hope there is no harm in conjecture whilst every second post is about bitcoin pricing lol

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032118307184?via%3Dihub

I ve been wondering whether we will acquire any other miners. I found Layer 1 in Texas...this is Alex CEO of the firm. Interesting concept of managing the power grid and acting as insurance underwriter for the energy grid (his words not mine); getting free juice in return. Not saying there is any connection, just thought it’s creative twist to the usual moaning about bitcoin being energy intensive..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEnU6iI5L0

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-hitchhikers-guide-to-bitcoin-mining-in-north-america-2021-01-20
A bit about the mining pools and other classes (I don’t know much about these, more reading needed). Interesting bit about regulatory issues with using miners based in other countries, “black listed wallets” and importance of miners participating in a pool being based in regulated environments, going forwards.

https://titan.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Titan_WhitepaperV0_9.pdf?x29728

The importance of hash rate and how this is getting tokenised has cross over reading with Luxor (hash rate management/optimisation/financial instruments such as derivatives). We have invested seed capital in this firm and I see significant growth in the future. Mostly conjecture at this stage, so please DYOR.

The % of mining done via China, Russia, Iran and Kazakh and secondly the hardware mainly supplied from China, is a concern for bitcoin imho. The dominance of Chinese cos, including Bitmain is now ready to be challenged. Argo is visionary and has chosen to partner with a North American ASIC maker. (EPIC) There were previous reports of a back door entry (AntBleed I think), creating vulnerability in Bitmain machines.

https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/us-plans-to-take-on-china-in-bitcoin-mining/

Note the partner for the Enterprise grade mining pool emerging in the US: Core Scientific. And Argo has been forging partnerships with all the key players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us participating in this pool. We already got our first machines leased/hosted by Core Scientific, with COMMUNITY funding via Celsius Network. True bitcoiners ARB are. ASIC miner EPIC based in N America (and with services/research onsite at our new Texas facility) will offer priority supplies and services to us. Long term, a wider distribution of mining across the world rather than just China/communist block would be more equitable/safer for the network. And I see ARB leading the charge in the North American operations. Just my conclusions. Please DYOR.

Very interesting CC. Apologies for cross over chat-but I have considered this idea for a mask (in RMS). A chip that gathers data apart from usual stock taking/supply chain, its use could easily help epidemiological research on mask use, prevalence of the virus etc. I think data and AI to sift through that data to give it meaning, is a big sector going forwards.

Autonomy: very true. I hadn’t heard of this co till early Jan. The day I heard of it and read up, within hours, I loaded over £50k. It was that simple. A no brainer. And I have kept buying at various prices. I had already been buying small amounts monthly of bitcoin (via XBT BTC an ETF) since 2019. It never occurred to me that there were listed bitcoin miners. (Or i would be retired by now). Unfortunately the FCA decided to ban crypto related investing such as ETFs for retail investors from Jan 2021. HL decided to go one step better and banned it from Oct end 2020. My bank HSBC aced that: it blocked every transaction of mine (and my debit card!) when I tried buying bitcoin on coinbase. The concerted efforts being made by institutions to keep retail investors “out”of the story, to make it harder for us to participate, is incredible. Unfortunately the majority are missing the picture. Until you get Bitcoin, you don’t lol. Short term volatility is irrelevant. One needs to understand money supply, what is happening demographically and why there is a potential case for bitcoin. It may be one grand experiment, but I m thrilled to be an early participant, regardless of outcome.

Twenty years from now, we could be looking at ARB being one of the big four crypto “bank” type institutions. Imagine being a part of that innovation journey from early on-I find it mind blowing and for just that reason, being invested here (and in bitcoin) has been one of THE most exciting aspects of investing life for me. Thank you to the many knowledgeable posters here. Happy to be corrected on any thing I have misinterpreted/mistaken. Good luck all

The share price will rise as the weeks go by, even if bitcoin hovers at 40-45k. Indeed imho I see this at £10 by year end, even if bitcoin stays here. Argo is building a vertically integrated business, with partners in every link. EPIC for the world’s most formidable ASIC miners, custom built and optimised especially for us; Luxor who manages hash rates/links with derivatives in hash rate; Celsius Network on the finance side, leveraging bitcoin like fiat.

Our share price is currently a function of bitcoin price. This is creating a lot of nervous trading and insecure holders. Over time our HODL number of bitcoin will rise. I fully expect Argo to leverage this holding, be it earning interest (like HUT8 does with Genesis) or using it for Proof of Stake, or DeFi use. As our capacity to mine bitcoin keeps rising (as it has this week), it partly offsets the volatile bitcoin price. This is why we didn’t see the sub £2 today which some were expecting/hoping for.

Secondly our value driver currently is mostly bitcoin led. My expectation is for Zcash to start rising mid year, given it lags bitcoin by 2 cycles and 6 months (last halving November 2020). So going forwards this will be a greater contributor than it has, last twelve months.

Thirdly our 25% stake in Pluto digital assets is I imagine completely overlooked by market in terms of attributing value. Pluto has stakes in various projects including YOP and as these mature, as well as Pluto lists (expecting a circa 50m raise and listing in Q3 21), its value will come through to our valuation. DeFi is a key area for ARB and I imagine will drive value when the space grows over the next 1-2 years.

Fourthly, Luxor recently finished a $725k pre seed capital raise including ARB contributing. Its partners are Routemaster, Bitnomial etc. Luxor’s proprietary “Switch” technology is being used to optimise Equihash mining (Zcash) by ARB-we beta tested it through 2020 and it produced “outsized returns” as per Luxor. Now Luxor intends to foray into SHA256 ie bitcoin mining. Again it has ARB as partner who imho will beta test tech. (Might already be doing this). Going forwards, the unpredictability of hash rate, difficulty and rewards will mean hash rate management will become increasingly important. Luxor intends to list eventually, so again there will be a value driver directly feeding into our value.

What I like especially about this company is that the team is visionary. Peter has already spoken about the life cycle of our machines, about preparing for the next halving (which is May 2024!). Peter has also spoken about ARB being a block chain innovation company. So we can expect other projects that demonstrate breadth of value.

Peter genuinely believes in community and in building solid relationships. This is apparent in the comms from the company, the way investors feel about this company. It is also apparent in the manner in which deals are being made.

Whatsoccurring: Morning :) Frankly I don’t care about your opinion or anyone else’s. There was a collective opinion and I was part of a group that actually led to change. I have as much credibility as any other holder, no more no less. I don’t post to have my ego massaged. Investing, if it does nothing else teaches one humility. I have held patiently like many others. Good luck all

What’soccurring: Your comment has no valid basis. “Poke an AIM bod and suffer the fall out”. Did share holder actions lead to the company messing up commissioning? Commissioning was in the pipe line from October 2020. Did warrants being blocked lead to cash flow issues?

There was a board in place which had no focussed energy in bringing this machine to actual production. The commissioning should have been smoother and we just don’t know why it hasn’t been. Has the Spanish company reneged on its promise of production levels, or the machine turned out to be faulty? What legal protection have we got, in terms of compensation for loss of production/revenue/reputation?

Pre production status suited the old RMS, to ramp and deramp, and to cash in on either side of the roller coaster. What we are seeing now are the fall outs of the lack of organisation as a business, the poor coherence in news flow. To blame it on share holders who actually acted in unison to block a 20% dilution is quite ridiculous imho. I take no comfort in the fact that we are here at 1.4p, whilst the ex directors have sold out at much higher points. There is such a thing as karma and after all the money in the world has been made and lost, it catches up with all of us :)

Barry: amazing to see you offer your depth of experience and expertise in the area. My last top up was Friday between 1.6-1.85. As others have pointed out, this share has bounced back before on news and it is capable of recovering, at least that is my expectation. I think the board is being circumspect and unwilling to announce any updates unless full diligence/legal aspects are signed off. Apart from the painful journey of the last few months for those that have held rather than traded, the opportunity to deliver this product and make a difference, is melting away before our very eyes. I still re-read the last RNS and take reassurance in the fact that A. More material (melt Blown fabric) was secured-indicating there is appetite and our masks are actually going to market in quantity B. Alex was paid for securing contracts (he certainly didn’t earn his coin for commissioning the machine successfully in my eyes!) C. If Volz was written off as a partner, they would have had to announce it, given its material info. I m disappointed with the progress in terms of the website, the update on the machine being so patchy and overall communication with share holders. I hope there is a comprehensive update and clear path to revenue, ahead for all patient holders. I m certainly counting on it. Good luck all