Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Paddyboy,

I’m one of the new entrants (average is 29p), and believe me, I have no interest in accepting anything less than £1.50 within the next year, and I have a 4 year target of around £3.

I have assumed that the board remain laser focused on deleveraging, with growth capex, buybacks and dividends being kept on the back burner until all bonds are paid off (or refinanced at the very least).

I agree with you though… I think plenty of shareholders would allow themselves to be lowballed.

Nonsense,

The comment about no debt maturities is a bit of fib (imo).

I know you’re no idiot, so when you crunch the numbers (you’ll have to dig pretty deep into the financials and notes in several reports), it’ll all become clear… when you gain the full picture, keep it to yourself please as I’d like to continue topping up as I earn more money 😂.

In short, the ‘fixed debt maturities’ comment relates to a fixed bond, but there are lots of current liabilities to content with in the meantime.

According to my calculator, it was either sell the NA bus business or a conduct a highly dilutive raise.

Remember, they still have adhere to bank covenants, and they have to keep £300m in the RCF at all times. They’d have been sailing very, very close to the wind without the sale (pardon the pun).

From memory, a perpetual/non-fixed bond matures next year, but it doesn’t have to be paid next year… that said, if it isn’t, interest payments will rise on it, so it would be prudent for them to do so imv, and this should be comfortably achievable imo.

The management team simply need to not f*ck things up along the way, and we obviously need to avoid a severe black swan event.

Nonsense,

It wasn’t sold off cheaply imo. I can’t believe how much they paid for it!

As Paddy said, it was barely profitable and is capex intensive (the two things I really hope to avoid in any business).

I think it bodes well for the valuations of the retained parts of our business.

My primary concern here is being taken out on the cheap (70p-80p would be likely imo; but a robbery if you ask me)

Isdeer,

Which RNS did you pull this information from on the Jersey cost savings?

I agree with you both, but I think it’s too early to fully pass judgment on the acquisitions.

It’s certainly about time that we saw some positive contributions though!

The priority this year, imo, is mitigating the cost increases, with CF once again demonstrating its resilience and pricing power. If this is done successfully, I would expect everything else to fall into place nicely.

And to echo Adam, a doubling of sales isn’t required to double earnings.

Alessandro,

It wasn’t me who mentioned sales and earnings doubling in 10 years, it was another poster.

I’m looking to exit within 1-2 years, personally (if the price is right), as I always sell at near fair value while the sun is shining.

As for earnings being poor for the past couple of years, I think it would be prudent to put this into context and ask yourself exactly why.

• Nike’s de-stocking issues

• Higher interest rates than previously

• NLW increases

• Oil price shocks due to global conflicts

• Economic uncertainty weakening consumer sentiment

• Mild winters

And so on.

Conversely, what catalysts are on the horizon now? I can think of two significant ones which should occur within the next year.

KeithOz,

You didn’t come across as harsh at all.

I’m not a sensitive man. I enjoy learning and I’m here to make money.

I used to take a keen interest in learning about our operations, but PG has back-peddled that many times, that for a while now, I’ve completely disregarded most of what has been said, and I prefer to ignore the speculation.

The people who have made the most money from PRD to date (aside from management) have been the traders; those who have bought after placings, and then sold into speculative rallies.

As I don’t have the technical knowledge, I focus on the few key details, like so:

• MOU-1 - nice asset, but hasn’t flowed and I’m unclear as to why, and the probability of success. No immediate plans to flow test (to my knowledge). Disregarded, for now.

• MOU-2 - continued drilling could have resulted in the loss of the drill.

• Ireland - Rams Head was a waste of time and money, but was one of the main reasons I invested initially.

• MOU-3 - Gas samples taken, significant pressure build up (‘nearly lost the well’), flow could be stimulated from the lower sands if/when draw-down pressure is increased and the A-sands, while small, are ‘over-pressured’. Looks by far the likeliest to flow to uneducated mind like mine.

- MOU-5 - lots of uncertainty and lots of carrot dangling.

I tend to focus solely on what is right in front of me, rather than get too excited about the what ifs, as too much focus on the latter tends to result in shareholders being diluted via placings.

I bought back some of the shares which I’d sold today, following yours and GRH’s posts over the weekend. I’m not interested in the A-sands, but immediate testing of the deeper MOU-3 sands following results is an opportunity I can’t afford to miss.

Even GRH sold down shares after the MOU-5 drill, so it seems to me like it’s incredibly difficult for anybody to make a truly informed judgment with the information available (for now).

Is there a possibility that the A-sands are linked to other reservoirs? My main issue is that I have no idea how reliable much of the data is (for example, I didn’t foresee the salt in MOU-5).

Dwam,

Here’s a weird concept for you to think about: metric expansion.

What if, somehow, by the grace of God, the P/E multiple increases… it might not take 10 years for the share price to double, if that occurs.

If earnings roughly double, to say, 25p per share and the company trades at a p/e of say, 15 at that time = £3.75… and that’s without any earnings uplift from acquisitions, or any dividends, or any buybacks, or a NYSE listing.

Try to stay awake mate.

Wiscos,

I haven’t heard anything about bad trading (and I always ask casually when I’m in store).

However, I did hear rumours about staff being laid off (due to the NI and NLW increases). It wouldn’t surprise me, as I’ve never walked into a branch where I’ve left thinking that the staff seemed overworked 😄

I recall Darcy mentioning mitigation in one of the more recent updates, so I would imagine that lay offs form part of this strategy.

The above is pure speculation, of course.

KeithOz,

Thank you for shedding light on all of those points, that was a really informative post.

My comment about PG was tongue in cheek, but I don’t believe he’s taken the best course of action on several fronts.

My knowledge in this field is incredibly limited.

I’ve been reading posts from the likes of GRH, Jimmy, BRV and your good self etc, and of course the RNS’, but my understanding is that it would take me years of extensive research to have anything like a reasonable understanding of this sector, and I simply don’t have the time for that. Then there are the political implications here, which no doubt play a huge role.

This is the only O & G exploration company that has ever gained my interest (due to the huge potential upside, absence of debt and diversification across 3 regions).

I remain a shareholder (I’ve been invested for 4 years now) and the MOU-3 reservoirs remain the assets which I’m most optimistic about, by some margin.

I hope PRD finally rewards our patience.

Thank you for your contributions down the years. I respect your evidence-based approach and calm demeanour.

Dave,

Research can only be as useful as the data provided.

There are many industry experts on here who have failed to forecast almost anything correctly, so what chance do I have?

I, unlike most, know and accept my limitations.

This is a probabilities game, and it’s absolutely full of disingenuous individuals.

Most posters can’t even see the placings coming, let alone predict what quantities hydrocarbons are likely to flow.

If Dr Tingas is so great, why didn’t he advise Paul of the salt in MOU-5?… or which mud to use with MOU-2?… PG also nearly lost MOU-1 and MOU-3.

I think we all to do more research, especially PG.

Welloilbefooked,

I recall lots of posters on here speculating about a takeover recently, and Paul himself effectively said that he would be willing to sell his shares in a recent interview, if I remember correctly?

My point was/is, if the A-sands have a 100% chance of success, simply because Tingas said that it will flow, why didn’t anybody bid for the company?

I’ve never heard of a 100% COS in this game, so this is all news to me.

Seems to me like a lot of posters are trying to ramp up the speculation, so they can reduce their holdings as others buy in.

Personally, I have no idea what the outcome is going to be.

On the plus side, the helium potential for MOU-3 is exciting, and FWIW, I do think it is going to flow.

I also think the deeper sands in MOU-3 could flow in the future.

I don’t have much optimism for the other MOU wells, however, and I don’t trust PG (or most posters on here) in the slightest.

Look at the share price movements… everyone’s talking a big game now, but nothing has fundamentally changed imo since this was 2p. I think it’s reasonable to assume that many of the rampers were selling on the way down.

I’m no expert in this field, and by the looks of it, neither are many other posters.

I remain cautiously invested.

Dave,

MOU-5 had an alleged internal COS of 50%, and we know how that turned out (salt doesn’t have a high flow rate).

If Dr Tingas is 100% sure that it will flow, why wasn’t it tested a couple of year ago to prevent the SH dilution?

Also, why wasn’t PRD acquired at 2p per share a few months ago?

We nearly lost the well when it was drilled, but now there are no concerns at all when it’s going to be flow tested?

I take it you’ve invested 100% of your net worth in PRD then?

Irreducible risk remains - that is an actual fact.

Madman-Rob,

It would prove that we have a small amount of flowing gas.

Everything else would remain as pure speculation.

We already know that there is gas there, but if it doesn’t flow, what use is it to anybody?

FWIW, I do think the MOU-3 deeper sands could flow, but I’m not holding my breath with the other alleged assets.

Cannot get my head around the ramping/speculation on here of late.

We’ve been hearing the same stuff for several years now, but every flow test to date has failed.

My understanding is that PRD are only targeting a mere 20(ish) BCF…

What is that actually worth? Success seems to be priced in to me.

More than happy to be proven wrong.

With MOU-5 it was all about the ‘over 100 people on site’.

With MOU-1 and MOU-3 previously, sand-jet was going to save the day.

I hate to sound like Little Nige, but I think a placing is en route, personally… just like the 3 which were done in the run up to MOU-5 being drilled.

With more Trinidad costs around the corner, if this flow test fails, where is the capital coming from to keep the company going?

My understanding is that there’s a 46% chance of success with this flow test… so worse odds than a coin toss.

Again, happy to be proven wrong.

I’ve been a shareholder for several years btw.

Taverham,

I imagine we’re not attracting a premium for our international diversification, because the U.S, U.K and Europe are on their arses atm, for differing reasons.

Conversely, I expect a nice rally when macro improves in any of those areas, particularly the U.S and U.K. The World Cup will obviously be an excellent catalyst, across the board imv.

Hopefully U.K inflation, the tariff situation and poor economic growth all around will be behind us come next summer. Lower interest rates in all areas would also be hugely beneficial imo.

Regardless of what the SP does in the short-term (I’m not remotely excited by the little rally, personally), the true value will be unlocked here as the company deleverages imo.

For me, everything hinges on how consistently and how quickly the management team can do this.

With the turnarounds seemingly underway in Germany and the U.K, the new management team changes and with the cost cutting programme, I’m highly optimistic that the deleveraging plan will be successful.

Timing is everything with stocks imv… I see this period as the perfect entry point.

Garonne,

Your points are valid, but let’s not forget about the wage increases which have partially fuelled this inflation…. Many a customer will be better off financially.

Little dragon,

Have you opened a new short? If so, please declare it so we can all laugh at you again in the near future.

You bring a lot of entertainment value to this board. Top comedian, although you are a bit of a creep.