Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Dwam,

I only invest; I don’t trade.

If I was a trader, I’d only do in this U.S, as you’ve stated or I’d trade crypto (legal robbery, it seems).

While the U.S is seemingly in a perpetual bubble these days, I don’t expect it to last forever, and I don’t want to be caught swimming naked when the tide eventually goes out.

An important check for me is asking myself ‘what would I do if this stock falls 20%?’.

With JD, I would top up without a second thought, and I’d celebrate. With Tesla, I’d panic sell. With Nvidia, I’d think ‘this could easily fall another 50%… I’m retreating back to value’.

I can’t mentally detach myself from the underlying asset which I own. I treat it as if I’m buying the entire company at the current market cap.

I’m looking to get rich certainly; not merely attempt to get rich quickly.

I’ve never used Level 2 personally.

Snowie,

Learning from our mistakes is the most important thing in this game imv.

It was the debt which deterred me from this initially (and on reflection, this was a wise decision, but I didn’t foresee such a collapse).

I think the business has been ran poorly, so I think the board are/were more at fault; not anybody who invested here.

With new management, a convincing deleveraging strategy and the sale of a business which doesn’t make much profit AND consumes lots of capex screams inflexion point to me.

You’ve got nerves of steel, and I hope you are rewarded for it.

I’ve also made mistakes (last year mostly, due to Reeves and my own complacency).

FWIW, I see a route to £3 per share here (I wouldn’t cry if I end up with £2 per share), but that’s a 4-5 year time horizon. It all, imo, hinges on management being frugal and aggressively deleveraging to increase earnings, rather than more attempts at over-expansion.

Alsa needs to continue performing also, of course.

Good luck!

Snowie,

I’ve ran my own forecasts/projections and I must say, I’m pretty relaxed holding this.

This sale is pivotal, however, imo. I think the business can survive without it, but my word it will be nerve-racking.

DYOR and leave no stone unturned.

That said, I’m in the green here. I’d been banging my head up the wall if I bought this at £2+, but I’d certainly be holding and averaging down.

That said, the yanks have to tread cautiously with China as they have a near global monopoly on certain rare metals.

Compared to Covid, however, these headwinds are but a gentle breeze imo… a perfect opportunity for the unemotional contrarian investor.

Smokey,

I’m sure I’m preaching to the choir now, but the very impatience that you are witnessing from some posters is the very reason why this doesn’t rally to fair value (for now) imo.

Whether we agree or not, they’re earning a few quid and they’re aware of the fact that they’re running the risk of sitting out on a break-neck rally.

I fortuitously rebalanced my portfolio on Friday, which included trimming my position here back to 15% (my max weighting for anything when I’m feeling sane). The stocks I topped up have held better than this, fortunately.

If JD tanks, I’ll be topping up again to return to that 15%, or exceed it if it gets really silly (the infamous 60’s, for instance).

Tariff fears will be having an impact for sure though; note how China once again is targeted.

China is the main target for these tariffs imo; I wouldn’t want to be too exposed to that supply chain!

Dwam,

In my case, it’s because I invest in the underlying business, not the stock.

I’m an investor who acquires assets; I’m not a share price predictor.

It’s for this reason why my average for JD is around 90p; and why I wasn’t invested here years ago like yourself (not said in a condescending tone, I’m just explaining why I bought in more recently than your good self).

My focus is on filling the gaps in my knowledge; not worrying about gaps filling on share price charts.

Sentiment is always shifting; what is popular today (U.S big tech) might be out of favour tomorrow.

If the S & P 500 sells off aggressively during a crash in the future, what do you think will happen to the big tech stocks? The forced selling from the S & P alone could absolutely obliterate them.

Should this occur, it is then when I will invest heavily into some of the names you have mentioned.

While I appreciate that this has been a frustrating hold for you, the stock doesn’t know that you own it.

What is your valuation of JD Sports, the company? I think that should be your primary concern, personally.

PSN looks bloody cheap though! (I haven’t been watching the housebuilders for a few months)

Wiscos,

I was previously heavy on the housebuilders, but I’m not convinced that those lofty margins from the recent past are going to return anytime soon.

I was holding Redrow when the bid came in, and I was holding BWY for 2-3 years post Covid (often trimming and topping along the way). I think they’re excellent to trade, and the tide will turn eventually (I suspect within the next 12-24 months at the latest).

I think the smart move would on selling up when the market prices in a full recovery ahead of time, should this occur.

I’m holding 2 building materials suppliers, as I see more value there atm, personally.

With Greggs, I’ve always wanted to own it, but it’s never been cheap enough for me to load up on it. It will be interesting to see how their new growth strategy unfolds though. If they can successfully attract a lot of customers during evenings, the earnings growth could be monumental imo (if the execution is done well).

Good luck!

JG,

Agreed, but we can use it to our advantage.

Maverick,

On what grounds, out of curiosity?

If I could make such predictions on SP movements, I’d be a billionaire by now.

Dartron,

I actually think the opposite.

Y-o-y comparisons should be stellar imo.

Most of the profit warnings I’ve seen lately had U.S exposure and/or were contracts businesses, which have suffered due to reduced Capex spend on machinery etc.

I can see big swings occurring in both directions in the market during the coming months, and I think I’ve positioned my portfolio correctly.

Wiscos,

Good man! 😂

I hope you redeploy that capital wisely (as I’m sure you will)

Reevaluated this last night after my prior post.

Was definitely being a bit short-sighted and forgot my medium-term plan with this.

Bought back almost half of what I sold.

I’m sure you’re all aware of why… this turnaround could be monumental.

I’m naturally a hardcore value investor, so a double digit p/e makes me nervous (a habit I need to break); but context is key.

Short-term debt is the only reason I’m not absolutely loading up here.

PI_winner,

I view YouGov in the same vein as yourself.

I did halve my holding today, however, as I am concerned about the short-term liabilities and the potential for an equity raise, or rising interest costs if they refinance etc.

Either way, according to my calculator, they need to do some serious work to balance the books.

Once the short-term debt issue is resolved, I’ll make it a larger position again if the price is right (it was around 12% of my portfolio before I sold half).

From Gemini…

Impact on Nike's Production Costs:

Let's use the estimated production cost of an Air Force 1 sneaker, which is around $18 to produce overseas (including Vietnam).

Calculation:

Cost of shoe: $18

Tariff rate: 20%

Tariff amount per shoe: $18 * 0.20 = $3.60

So, for an Air Force 1 that costs $18 to produce, Nike would now face an additional $3.60 in tariff costs per pair when importing it into the US.

… I think we’ll survive; and this is the worst case scenario!

Can Nike pass that onto the consumer? Can we do the same? I imagine so.

Storm in a tea cup imo.

I expect a nice rally tomorrow if Nike continues on its upwards trend.

I wonder in Apendragon’s high conviction shorts are still open.

Wiscos,

You’re usually a calm head, but you have to do what’s best for you.

I’m not overly concerned about any of the points you’ve raised tbh. I would like us to avoid any further acquisitions for the time-being though.

Bang for buck is my guess.

The stock has been so volatile, that’s there’s no need for them to continue buying aggressively.

Even with no bad news, this could fall; likewise, with no good news, this could rally.

Most buybacks are executed terribly imo… with indiscriminate buying at any price. I’m glad that this buyback is being executed in the optimum manner, by adjusting the size of the purchases with movements in the share price.

To summarise, it’s common sense.

On Vietnam, it’s nice to see that my theory played out of the U.K and Vietnam being two of the first nations to strike deals with the U.S; interesting clause about them shutting the Vietnamese back door to China.

Obviously, we have no idea how the global tariff issue will unfold (if Trump appeals against the court etc), but at least now we know that there’s a one SE country who can supply us and our suppliers with low cost clothing and trainers.

If we see liberation day part 2, we’ll be fine. If the tariffs are overturned, but we’ll be fine.

All just my opinions, DYOR.

I know, I’ve just explained that this is my view.

It will only be taken over when Pentland Group choose to allow/execute it.

It still wouldn’t prevent somebody from testing the waters though.

BuyToHold,

I agree. They are both the gatekeeper and the low ball threat.

Surely they wouldn’t have undertaken a BB though, and would have attempted to take it over at peak fear around 60p?

Nonsense,

It’s also a recovery play for me. I see a clear route to £1.80+ in FY27; hard to believe now, but comfortably achievable when headwinds subside and we get some tailwinds behind us.

As I was explaining to my friend recently, it’s only takeovers, forced selling and changes in sentiment (emotion) which govern share price movements. There can be many catalysts for the latter, with earnings increases being the most reliable imv.

I’d also welcome a bid, but I’d hate for chunky Mike to get involved. He causes more drama than my misses (well, not quite 😂) .