Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Goodbloke,

No worries at all, and thank you the comment.

I just share my views and I try to bring some reason to the board, like several others.

I love topping up on the cheap, as I did today, so I’m actually working against my interests 😅

Just a few things to consider:

• “Mobico to sell Alsa to a friend for £5m” - if such a low bid came in, shareholders obviously wouldn’t vote for it and management hold a lot of shares, so why would they let somebody rob them of their wealth and jobs? Your comment is absolute idiocy, as always, Flatliners.

• “Same old excuses” - it’s a turnaround company under new management. Historic issues don’t vanish overnight and the report was up to June only. The issue here is debt… debt takes a while to pay off, unless you, you know, sell a barely profitable business for a few hundred million to help you along.

• Lease debt isn’t debt until you can’t repay it. The business is trading in line with expectations and is profitable, so at present, the lease debt is an operating cost.

• What happens to profit before and after tax when a company reduces its debts? Last time I checked, it meant that more of the operating profit (earnings before INTEREST and tax) made its way to the bottom line. Reducing debt = increasing profit; and it’s a self-reinforcing cycle, as the increased profits are used to further reduce debt, this enhancing profits even further.

Is Mobico firing on all cylinders? No, imo….

But it’s just sold a small part of the group for a value greater than the market cap, debt is being reduced and it’s trading at around 1x operating profit.

To those of you who are actually invested here or are seriously considering it, I implore you to put together some forecasts which show how the value could be unlocked here if the deleveraging is successful…. I nearly fell off my chair when I did.

Jed,

The market (for the most part) doesn’t understand this company or its debt situation imo, so I think the volatility is inevitable. Moreover, the operational performance is still quite choppy.

I think it’s prudent to always let your emotions settle before making a decision and for me personally, I’ve only ever had my fingers burnt by stocks when I’ve had doubts and lacked conviction.

If a 20% decline in a day will cause you to panic sell a stock, I think it’s better to shift your attention elsewhere, personally.

A test I use is ‘if this stock falls by x% on no news or a mediocre update, would I buy more without hesitation?’.

That test hasn’t failed me yet… albeit I’ve occasionally failed to follow it.

Smokey,

According to your posts, you:

1) Closed your short at 28.46p

2) Expect the share price to fall to 20p.

Didn’t fancy the extra gain on your short, no?

Watch and learn from Smokey everybody, we’ve got a Micheal Burry on the board!

John,

The hybrid doesn’t have to be paid off within a given timeframe.

My understanding is the company has 5 options:

1) If the business is stable when the hybrid is due, the money for the fixed bond due in 2027 can be ring-fenced, and remaining cash on the balance sheet can be used to pay off the hybrid loan.

2) The hybrid loan is kept on the books and the interest charges on it increase significantly - would be a stupid move imo.

3) Refinance in order to pay off the hybrid loan.

4) A placing - which makes zero sense while the share price is so low, and tbh, it wouldn’t make sense even if the share price was £1+. I don’t see any realistic chance of this happening.

5) Sell one of the poorly performing businesses or WeDriveU to pay off the hybrid.

I think option 1 is the preferred option, while 3 will be considered (if an attractive interest rate can be locked in - the reduced covenant gearing may open a door here).

While 4 is an option, I think it’s incredibly unlikely.

Option 5 would depend on the attractiveness of any offer.

I invested in this company as my forecasts indicated that option 1 would be feasible if the North American Bus sale was completed. Without it, some of the less appealing options would have been more likely imo.

While the RNS states that all options are on the table, I don’t believe that they are, realistically.

Jed,

I fully agree mate.

I’m very much looking forward to the year end results, and particularly the y-o-y comparisons in the balance sheet.

My average is 28p though after my top up today, so I’m far more relaxed than most holders.

Imagine, some investors saw this as a buy when it was £3 in 2021 (it looked like a car crash to me back then, if you ask me), but a sell now in the mid 20’s 🤣….

Must be on the white lightening or tenants super.

What does concern me is that if these results were poor, what would have happened then? Imagine the reaction if there was a profit warning!

JG,

The results were to JUNE… JUNE!! The company has since received the money from the North American Bus sale (received in JULY).

This might come as a surprise to the market and yourself, but such a sale tends to reduce leverage and debt.

The hybrid was mentioned…. An announcement will be received later in the year.

Why does the company need to commit to paying off the hybrid now? For what purpose? To wipe bums and comfort the market?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some director buys in the coming days. I’ve just topped up quite aggressively.

Paddy,

They can chip away all they like imv. Shorts never bother me, because I know what I own.

Note, that they might also have long positions.

My focus remains solely on the turnaround of the business, the deleveraging (which will transfer the value from the lenders to shareholders) and the value of the underlying business.

Imo, ALSA alone is worth around 5 times the market cap. Deleveraging will unlock that value in the long-term imo.

If we see a turnaround in the other businesses, well… I can see a clear pathway to around £3 per share in a few years.

If the share price was currently £1, I’d take on board the negative comments to some extent, but at such a laughably low share price, what were some posters expecting? A net cash position of £10bn and net profit up 1,000%?

Value is all that matters to me.

Lastly, note how the negative posts have offered zero context and zero insight…

All they’ve said is ‘going to the 20’s’ or ‘poor results’ 🤣.

Couldn’t even justify it with a couple of sentences.

I’ve never once called anybody out for shorting on this platform, but I’m 99.99% sure that the negative posters today are shorting the stock.

All just my opinions, so do your own research and READ THE BLOODY REPORT.

I’d love to know what planet some of you are on.

Have you actually read the full report?

These results were to June only. It’s September now!

• The outlook for the full year is unchanged - strongly implies that trading has significantly improved post period end.

• Company is trading in line with expectations

• North American Bus sale occurred AFTER the reporting period, so while the NON-CASH write downs were included in the results, the CASH was not received or accounted for.

• Covenant gearing will be 2.5x at year end.

• Debt maturities moving forward are accounted for, thus removing bankruptcy risk.

• Lower capex costs moving forward due to North American Bus business disposal.

As for the bad:

• WeDriveU issues were temporary

• Progress being made in Germany

• ALSA’s benefits from the 18-30 discounts will have occurred after period end. Importantly, revenue was up.

• UK business will now somewhat merge with ALSA driving COST REDUCTIONS and improving operational performance.

But yeah, sure, let’s just say ‘not great’ and ignore all the context….

No wonder why U.K. companies are constantly being nicked on the cheap by the yanks.

Flowerpower,

firepower1

Posted in: MCG

Posts: 97

Price: 25.82

No Opinion

RE: Rebound19 Jun 2025 13:18

Shorts are increasing,, when do they ever get it wrong,

If I was holding here,,, I would be very very worried,,

Why not sell,, and buy in when much lower

….

Do you remember posting this at under 26p? The share price rallied shortly afterwards (the shorts therefore got it wrong straight after your comment, no?)

I’m yet to see you post anything of any value. All you ever say is words to the effect of ‘it’s being shorted, so the company is doomed’.

Listen, if there really was this information leak that you keep speaking of, wouldn’t the short float be 50% or more? Also, consider that some/all of these shorts may also hold long positions in Mobico.

Good luck buying in ‘much lower’ than 25.8p pal 🤣🤣🤣

Carrot,

‘I wouldn’t want to be out of this next year and it’s simply a case of taking opportunities to buy dips and a bit of trading to avoid boredom. Even an idiot will make 50% over 12 months buying at £1 and closing their eyes’….

^ I think you inadvertently explained the reason for the rise today here.

Quite a few long term holders seem to have trimmed today (like yourself - and there’s no harm in that. I’ve also done this on occasion, but not recently), so there must be plenty of new holders.

I think the market is viewing this as something to hold for a year (at least) as the company is due some strong tailwinds next year and the new buyback should keep the share price steady.

Falling interest rates in the U.S should benefit us nicely. The near term future looks bright imv.

It was an interesting comment regarding potential market share gains as well… a competitor or two might be under pressure atm.

Last year, JD benefited from the Euro 2024 tournament, so this makes the comparatives look poor.

This is clearly stated in the RNS.

As for the modest forecasts, the above reason forms part of this, and secondly, JD will not want a repeat of last year (with the profit warnings), so I think they’ve set a fairly low bar.

A key takeaway: the company is trading IN LINE with expectations. I don’t see that as ‘negative’, when a quieter year was anticipated.

As for the SP movement - these ‘negative’ results were obviously priced in. I don’t think this point could be any more obvious tbh to any man who owns a calculator.

It might be worth considering what will happen to the comparatives next year - interest rates in the U.S. could/should be coming down and there’s a little competition called the World Cup.

I’d say the results were mediocre, personally.

Why the huge drop today? 10% is absolute madness considering there’s been no RNS imo.

The short squeeze is going to be biblical (imo)…

I could understand shorting this a couple of years ago, but now? It’s incomprehensible to me.

It’s taking a while for the market to readjust here.

It’s been chronically undervalued for a while now imo, but I think the news is slowly breaking.

Buybacks should help prop the SP up when it settles imv and a nice dividend these days, without the minority interest.

I largely concur with your valuations.

I only own one other stock with U.S tariff exposure, and it actually has less exposure than JD.

Today, it’s up just over 10% on the China tariff news, while this is down…

Interesting timing on the (imo) low ball price target 🤔.

Falling production = rising prices and increased margins imv. Suits me just fine.

Great article, thank you.

I agree, today’s results are absolutely outstanding imo.

Flatliners,

Are you actually short or are you just waffling?

If you’re shorting this with a target of £2, you’re an incredibly brave and/or stupid man imo.