Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Not many businesses can withstand this with such resilience:

Initiatives identified through our continuous 'Simplify and Scale' productivity and efficiency programme will enable us to mitigate the more than £20 million FY26 cost inflation, which includes significant rises in National Living Wage and employer National Insurance contributions, as well as wider inflationary pressures.

I tend to focus on the quality of a business, and the value on offer.

I’ve noticed a pattern in the market lately where stocks are tanking even though they’re trading in line with expectations.

I don’t know what the hell some investors expect.

I read through all of the auditors section of the annual report, as today’s RNS advised, and imo, there was nothing major.

There were some disagreements on the German front with regards to the onerous contract impairments etc, but Deloitte admitted themselves that’s it’s mostly guesswork at this stage.

Deloitte actually approved Mobico’s numbers, so there doesn’t appear to be anything major.

Hopefully PTA situation draws to a positive conclusion in the coming months, in line Mobico’s forecast on the matter.

I’m also amazed that somebody investors are selling on some very odd news.

There could be a very simple explanation as well: simply not agreeing a fee or Deloitte not being happy with the amount of work involved with auditing the German business (I wouldn’t want that headache, unless I was being paid very handsomely for it).

If there was any foul play, I believe the resignation would have been immediate.

Stumpy,

I’m sure I speak for all Yougov holders here: we don’t care.

If you’re so confident, why not keep your mouth shut, remortgage the house and lump every penny you can find on a short position?

If not, then you don’t actually believe that this stock is destined for demise in the very near future.

Moreover, surely you want the share price to rise, so that you can increase your short at an even higher price, no?

Likewise, if JP Morgan know that this is destined for collapse, why not set a high price target, which would enable them (or their pals) to earn even more money from their shorts?

What a turkey.

As always, the context is key imo.

By my reckoning, the net finance expense rose by £43m, which will obviously put margins under pressure, but the company is expecting a return to net cash at year end, so I think the net finance expense will fall in the 2nd half and onwards.

Cash flows remain strong, so D & A has likely risen as well.

Let’s not forget the tariff trade war, instability in the Middle East and economic uncertainty here, in Europe (lots of sectors have struggled in Europe) and the U.S.

Also, rising labour costs in the U.K. due to rising NI and NLW had a negative impact.

The company is weathering an economic storm rather well imo. I expect the market to sell it off though, even though it’s trading in line with expectations.

The market seems to be hyper-focused on the past lately imo… positive things like falling interest rates and rising sales will probably be overlooked, I imagine.

I’m holding, but will top up if it tanks.

Looking forward to the new buyback.

Pantyliners,

Note that this was released by Yougov AFTER FY25 had concluded:

5 August 2025

YouGov plc

 

Full-Year Trading Update

 

FY25 performance expected to be in line with expectations

Improvement in Data Products driven by stable renewal rates and new client wins

 

YouGov, the international research and data analytics group, today issues a trading update for the full year ending 31 July 2025.

 

The Group is on track to realise annualised cost savings of £20 million as part of the cost optimisation plan implemented at the start of the year, with 70% of those savings already delivered this financial year.

 

Looking ahead, the stable performance we have seen in the year and the current visibility into FY26 is encouraging. The Group remains mindful of the volatile market conditions and expects client budgets will continue to face some pressure, which underlines the need for greater focus on delivering high-quality data products and increased innovation to drive medium-term growth.

Dartron,

Sorry I missed your message. I’m in agreement with you and I think this is far too risky to trade.

I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to wake up tomorrow to see a bid offering a 100% premium or the like.

I’d like to top up on the lows, but it’s so illiquid that I can’t even buy shares in my main ISA with 212.

Who are Austin? Can somebody share a link please or shed some more light on it.

There’s lots of head scratching in general about the results.

Personally, I read them very positively.

* Adjusted EBITDA is on the rise.

* EPS and net profit are down due to a one-off tax hit and D & A - importantly, the latter does not impact free cash flow and will not slow down the deleveraging process.

* Finance expenses are falling, thus enhancing profit margins.

* No more overhang from warrants.

I think the one-off tax hit and the analyst downgrades have spooked the market, for now.

EPS should see a nice boost in the next quarter as there won’t be any one-off payments to make (to my knowledge).

Easy hold imo. I expect the share price to make a swift recovery; as it always seems to.

Liarpower,

“They all have inside information”…. About what?

The interim results are already almost 3 months out of date and hardly any of it was a surprise.

What did they know that we all didn’t?

You’re shouting from the rooftops about a short-term share price reaction…

Let’s see how loud you are in 3 years.

There was a clown like you on the JD Sports board… naturally, he went missing after allegedly shorting it the day before it rallied out of sight.

Flowerpower,

Explain to me what I got wrong?

I’m around break-even on Mobico, and I’m an investor, not a trader.

You offer zero insight and zero analysis. You can’t even deramp properly.

Have fun on your demo account, bed wetter.

Polish,

Let’s assume that you’re correct, and the businesses will continue to perform poorly (excluding ALSA).

If you are correct, Mobico can pay off the debts during the next 5-6 years or so, dispose of the smaller businesses for peanuts and sell ALSA for over £1bn, resulting in shareholders making a return of over 400%, no?

Rob,

I increased my holding by 20% yesterday, but I too wouldn’t mind snapping some more shares up if the price gets even more silly (c.20p).

I completely agree with you with regards the information often lacking transparency and clarity in the reporting.

I also think that one of the main reasons this is in the doldrums is due to the lack of clear direction. Management should be saying ‘we’re going to do x, y and z, and we’re going to fund it by doing x, y and z’.

Instead, we get ‘we might do this, or we might do that’ with no further explanation.

I tried to watch the webcast last night, but it wouldn’t work for me. It was completely inaudible.

FWIW, I think the reason they’re being so vague is because they’re unsure about the macro moving forward, and there’s still lots of uncertainty on the Germany front. Once the latter is cleared up, I think they’ll start providing more clarity.

Imo, it couldn’t be more obvious that certain posters are either shorting, or looking for an even cheaper entry.

Still waiting for somebody to explain how this company is heading for bankruptcy or how another disposals is necessary.

News flash: every single company on the planet will consider selling its assets for the right price, especially when some of those assets are performing poorly. It’s hardly confirmation of financial distress.

As for rolling the hybrid bond: while I wouldn’t do this myself, if Mobico allow it to roll, the company could be sitting on £650m-£750m cash by the time the £250m fixed bond is due, even if no further disposals are made.

Moreover, there’s a big difference between rolling a bond… and rolling a bond indefinitely. They might just roll it until the 2027 fixed bond is cleared or until the German Rail situation has been resolved, to be on the safe side.

In fact, imo they could pay off the hybrid bond without having to touch the RCF at all, theoretically, and still have around £50m cash left in the bank…

KGinvest,

With all due respect, just about everything you said is incorrect.

I didn’t say they should use the RCF to pay it off. I said that they should use a combination of the RCF and cash.

At year end, there should be at least £550m cash on the balance sheet (you’re acting like the company doesn’t have a penny in the bank).

There is £600m in the RCF, but half of this realistically needs to be retained.

That’s over £850m of liquidity at year end, so how can they not afford to pay off the hybrid bond?

As for why would they do it, well, you answered your own question: it would enhance earnings by c.£42m per annum and it would attract new investors, who are currently deterred by 1) the high level of debt, 2) the hybrid bond uncertainty and 3) managements general lack of clarity on the deleveraging strategy.

In just 5 years, the money the company would save is greater than the current market cap! It’s a no-brainer imv, and I’ve clearly mapped out how they can afford to do it with relative ease (imv) in my earlier post.

Ista,

Thank you for the information, I’ll check out the webcast.

I think they’re absolutely insane if they roll it… unless a very respectable interest rate can be agreed.

PaddyTheBaddy,

From today’s RNS:

“The Hybrid Bond's call window expires in February 2026 and the Group will make a decision on its options, including whether to call or roll the bond, prior to this date”.

Calling the bond = paying it off the last time I checked?

If they don’t pay it off, it will be one of the worst decisions I’ve witnessed from a management team. In fact, it would be number 1.

Paddy,

You might be right, but the company is under new management.

Can you provide a reference for where the new management team has explicitly stated that they won’t pay off the hybrid loan. I thought that all options were on the table?

CraigJD and Goodbloke,

Craig, good point my friend, but I hadn’t forgotten. I’ve been ultra-Conservative as I want to stress test the company to assess the bankruptcy risk. Also, there’s no guarantee that those targets will be met, but judging by its performance this HY, I imagine those targets will be.

Goodbloke, I don’t believe the credit rating has any relevance atm, as long as we don’t have to refinance. However, with a better credit rating, there wouldn’t be such a high level of importance on paying off the hybrid loan.

I expect the credit rating to improve significantly over the next couple of years, which would enable the company to refinance, if the management team decide to do so. At the very least, it will give them optionality.

I think the worst for the company and the share price is behind us.

Obviously, there are many things to consider with Mobico, but I tend to focus on what I believe to be the most important: the deleveraging.

According to my calculations, being very conservative, I expect there to be between £550m-£600m cash on the balance sheet at year end. Let’s call it £550m.

There is also a £600m RCF (of which it is prudent to keep 50% stored away for a rainy day imv and this satisfies the banks).

I would use £150m of the RCF and £350m of the cash to pay off the hybrid bond.

Note: this would result in an extra c.£42m free cash flow per annum.

That’s 2026 taken care of.

In 2027, the first tranche of the private placement (£399m) needs to be paid. I need to dig into the reports to establish how much this will be, but as the tranches are spread over 5 years, I’m expecting c.£80m per annum.

By 2027, I’d expect another c.£150m cash on the balance sheet (guessing here, I haven’t checked this thoroughly), which would result in our liquidity being £350m cash and £450m in the RCF, which = £800m.

An £80m tranche payment reduces that to £720m.

To reduce finance costs, I’d also pay off around half of the RCF (no net impact on liquidity).

That’s 2027 taken care of.

In 2028, I believe that £330m will be due (£80m for the private placement and £250m for the fixed bond).

Again, another, say, £150m cash should be generated that year which would boost liquid up to £870m.

£870m - £330m = £540m liquidity.

That’s 2028 taken care of.

At this stage, the total amount of debt which would have been cleared is around £850m (with £60m theoretically still owed on the RCF).

Earnings should have increased dramatically, as interest payments will have fallen significantly.

This is of course without taking refinancing into account, any uplift in earnings from deleveraging, a Germany revival, a U.K. turnaround or a sale of any part of the group.

My numbers are rough, but as none of us can predict what will happen next quarter, I prefer to keep my calculations as broad conservative estimates.

The key here isn’t how much they owe imo… it’s when those payments are due and liquidity.

Or maybe all of the above is nonsense, and the shorts know everything, and the business is going bust, and the sky is falling, and the bond holders are going to egg our houses.

Happy to be proven wrong, genuinely, but don’t nit pick one assumed number and expect a response. I haven’t got all day to predict earnings to the dime.

If I am wrong, please write out your own forecasts to demonstrate your point.