Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Nonsense,

You raise some valid points, as always.

If there is a tariff impact, I expect it to be short-lived (nothing more than an opportunity to top up on yet another dip).

In relation to your post this not being a takeover target:

• Look at Foot Locker’s recent takeover.

• Taking over retailers when they’re on their knees is a Mike Ashley kind of thing, but it’s not universal imo.

• The share price currently (in relation to earnings) is on its knees imo.

• Retailers are often taken over during distress, because the acquirer just wants the brand. JD is a strong brand, but it’s not the crown in the jewel; it’s operations and ability to cater to a wide range of consumer desired are imo. It sells choice/selection imo.

I’m not necessarily expecting a takeover, but I wouldn’t be remotely surprised. I think the traders here could find themselves in a world of regret, should a bid occur.

Personally, I think the only reason we haven’t received a bid is because of Pentland Group. I imagine discussions have taken place, but they’re not willing to sell it on the cheap (only retail investors and retiring CEO’s with huge stakes seem to accept low ball offers).

While the share price is sub-90p, for any acquirer, they’re probably being quoted £2+ imo. At such a price, it obviously has far less appeal.

Some on this board have mentioned a £1.20 bid… imo, such a bid would be rejected out of hand. If there was a slither of a chance of such a low bid being accepted, I think we’d have been in a bidding war months ago.

To summarise, I think vultures are lurking around JD, but they’re being given the middle finger behind closed doors.

If Pentland receive £1.50 per share from a sale, what will they do l with that money? Where will they get more bang for their buck, whilst remaining within their circle of competence? Their resolve may be tested publicly, nonetheless.

Nonsense,

If huge tariffs were going to be imposed on many countries, it would have been done by now imo.

Trump, imv, does not have the power (realistically, legally or otherwise) to implement them.

Tariffs against China will continue to an extent imo, as it’s imperative that the U.S weaken their main rivals. China hold an ace with their rare metals though, so U.S.A’s leverage has its own limitations.

An absolutely vital point here (something I’d overlooked until studying Israel’s political influence over the U.S.A) relates to lobbying.

IF huge tariffs are imposed on countries, those counties will ‘lobby’/bribe congress so that they are voted out imv. A cynic might argue that attracting such ‘lobbies’ was always part of the plan.

Take a look at Israel’s lobbying to the U.S for further reading.

One might also argue that Israel has a different type of leverage over Trump and some other high ranking officials though… remember that island?

Certain people were on that visiting list. Is there incriminating evidence?

Sounds farfetched, but the owner of that island was actually a business partner of the former PM and Defence Minister of Israel… the type of company? Surveillance.

As for his unfortunate end: the CCTV cameras malfunctioned, the security guards fell asleep and the none of his injuries were consistent with his cause of ‘departure’.

To summarise, in geopolitics, it’s NEVER straightforward. I think it’s best to ignore the noise and prepare for any eventuality. Leverage and money is everything.

Apologies for going down the rabbit hole 😅

Apendragon - “And so, in anticipation of CRAP Nike financials, opened a new short at here and and NIKE”

🤣🤣🤣

In only a few hours, he lost almost all of the 12% he was bragging about making on his recent short on one trade.

Takes some skill that does, seriously. Imagine losing 10% or so on a trade WHILE THE MARKET IS CLOSED. Quite an achievement that.

Little dragon, what else are you shorting at the moment? I’d like to back the other side of the trade.

Matthew Friend, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Nike, added that the fourth quarter “reflected the largest financial impact from our Win Now actions, and we expect the headwinds to moderate from here.”

With a new CEO at the helm, new strategy in place, Club World Cup, FIFA World Cup and with management expecting headwinds to now moderate, I expect a nice recovery from Nike (and more importantly, JD) moving forward over the next 14 months or so.

With the market usually being forward-looking, how long it take for the SP of these companies to rally?

Tick tock.

Lots of U.K. institutions are on their backside atm.

Surely they’ve been forced to sell shares in their holdings due to capital outflows?

You can read their RNS’ for full details.

When inflows return to those institutions, I expect the likes of CARD to really rally.

For example, LionTrust Asset Management is down 55% in just over a year. Their assets under management have also fallen significantly. Can they afford to invest into stocks like CF atm? It wouldn’t be easy with high capital outflows imo.

Should this be higher? Definitely imo, but the market believes that there are sexier opportunities elsewhere, for the time-being.

Also, the market remembers how this tanked at the interims last year (even though it was trading in line).

Furthermore, the market will be weary of how CARD handle the NI and NLW increases.

Do any of the above reasons phase me and most of you? Not at all, but not all investors think like us and see opportunities like us, hence why most investors can’t even beat the market.

When the crowd eventually arrive, that’ll be the time to sell for me.

For now, I think it’s time for either being patient or topping up.

None of this should come as a surprise to any of you… we‘ve seen this trading at even more ridiculous valuations than this in recent times (imv)!

All it takes is an upgrade forecasted earnings from a broker or two; or another catalyst imo….

Beo,

Top observation.

Flatliner will surely be adding to his short position, as this is destined for the 30’s according to him 😉.

Naturally, the mighty MAGA lemon-slaying XXL super-dragon will say that he was stopped out automatically (another genius move of the Lord himself, may I add), so he had no hand in closing the short.

On any future dips, I’m sure he’ll be back to tell us that he saw it coming and has made millions from the trade.

DACO… Dragon always chickens out.

It’s down 1%… relax ladies.

MoonPig results are tomorrow and MoonPig was down almost 5% today the last time I checked.

There’s always some read across from the market for some reason.

I will add that I believe it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, to some extent.

I watched an interesting interview this morning of some ‘expert’ claiming that the U.S market is massively driven by TA atm. CNBC or the like.

The technicals look good > investors pile in > technicals looks good > investors pile in. Something like this.

Naturally, when the technicals eventually collapse, there will be a reversion to fundamentals, no?

It would be interesting to see how this strategy performs: follow TA in a rally, then a quick shift out of those stocks as the technicals weaken, prior to a gradual shift into undervalued stocks as the technicals continue to break down.

I don’t use technical analysis (possibly to my detriment), although I do like to see a bowl forming as I think this usually reliable (within the context of the fundamentals of course).

What are the best books to read on this subject?

My main criticism of it, is that if it was so useful, why aren’t technical analysts all multimillionaires? Surely they could compound their wealth at over 100% per annum, no?

I’m surprised this hasn’t sold off today prior to results and the presentation tomorrow.

I expected the traders to be jumping ship, especially as many holders are nicely in the green, so I was ready to top up (at sub 35p).

I expect another big swing tomorrow. I’m prepared for any eventuality, and I’ll be a happy man if it really shifts in either direction.

Hoss,

Over 3 million shares repurchased today (on a day where buying volume must have been exceptionally high), so it aligns with your theory.

I set aside a (comparatively) small amount of money, so that I could increase my holding by around 10% if it drifted into the lower 60’s… can’t say I’ll shed too many tears if a bid comes in, as I’d love to redeploy that capital elsewhere, while opportunities are aplenty.

£1.50 leaves plenty of medium and long-term upside for any buyer, and it would enable us to exit without being completely robbed imo.

Analysts are forecasting 13.3p EPS for FY27 x 15 = £1.99p (or £2 if rounded up). I think that’s easily achievable if we don’t receive a takeover bid.

Many a dragon will be kicking themselves in the not-so-distant future imo; one way or another.

Correction: Far less potential downside here imo (than with GMS)*

Excellent banter on here today fellas, I love to see it 🤣

Glad I topped up yesterday with a 10% increase in my holding (back into over-exposed territory).

I did trim GMS quite aggressively though (banking some profit), which has bounced today, so it’s swings and roundabouts.

More upside here, and far less potential upside, and less risk imo, especially considering the geopolitical tensions.

Hopefully the club World Cup gains more traction in the knockout stages. Importantly, it looks like the major clubs will mostly qualify.

PR,

That won’t have helped, but I noticed that oil was down around 7% (in sync with this) yesterday after my post.

I wasn’t expecting that, given the rising tensions in the Middle East.

It looks like it’s all been put to bed… for now.

Johnjo,

As I said, will this not result in market share gains?

Will the tightening of monetary policy never subside?

Will employment not increase in the future?

If the economy collapses, will interest rates not fall in order to stimulate it?

As I said, forest through the trees.

You’re looking at the current macro situation and extrapolating it into perpetuity. The economy ebbs and flows, does it not?

Flatliners,

According to you, this will be in 30’s by Christmas 🤣

Seems to be in free fall today.

With oil prices on the rise, surely that’s good for business, albeit destabilisation in the Middle East is an issue.

Why such a strong market reaction?

Tell a lie… I once traded BooHoo in my early days over a very short time horizon after the working conditions/pay scandal.

Made a quick buck and swiftly moved on.

Johnjo,

You’ve laid out one particular scenario, which involves JD’s margins declining every single year moving forwards.

On what grounds have you arrived at this conclusion?

Will all of the fashion industry suffer this same fate?

Will the tide never turn?

Can’t see the forest for the trees imo.

Or maybe we’ll all be naked or wearing rags in the future, right?

IF this industry goes through some sort of dark age (as you’re alluding to), I expect JD Sports to be one of the last companies standing. The market share gains would be phenomenal.

There are MANY clothing retailers of whom are actually struggling and many have terrible balance sheets; some can’t even turn a profit! ASOS could be regarded as one such example (imagine how we’d benefit from them going under).

If/when our competitors go bust, will we not see market share gains AND increasing margins, due to less competition being left in the market place?

The industry is become increasingly concentrated… just look at all the acquisitions and bankruptcies in the past few years.

JD imo, is one of the best in class.

I’ve never owned another clothing retailer… so why is this my biggest position, when I clearly have no appetite for the industry?

Feel free to sell up if you don’t believe in the prospects of the company, and invest your money elsewhere if you wish to do so.

LWHL,

I watched a video last night on U.S stock market performance following invasions or attacks on foreign nations.

Surprisingly, the market performed well almost every time, but this was one video, so do your own research of course.

BME sounds a good shout to me. I noticed that much of their debt is just lease liabilities, so the balance sheet is a bit stronger than it looks at a glance.

It’s one of many stocks that don’t quite make the cut for me, but would be ushered in if I sell one of my current holdings on a sharp rise. Other such stocks in this category for me are the likes of Yu Group, Keller and On the beach, albeit there’s something which I dislike about each of their business models.