Member Info for LorenzoLynch

LWHL,

As somebody who was half way through researching RNO prior to the takeover… sometimes it pays to commit, and worry about the minor details after.

I rarely see blatant bargains fail to re-rate.

That said, it was the pension situation which had me procrastinating. I made a similar mistake with SFR after the last RNS, which addressed most of the issues which they bombarded the market with in the prior RNS… would have been a very quick and easy 40%-45% gain.

I don’t think too much is required to move the dial here personally. At £2.80, I’d definitely have a top up.

I fully agree with all 3 of you.

With regards to a buyback vs dividend, I think that needs to be contingent on the share price at the appropriate time.

Either way, it’ll be nice to see free cash returned to shareholders, instead of to our lenders.

Bazza,

Apologies, I was talking out of my backside there.

I don’t pay much attention to exports, as I don’t own any stocks which export goods, and I don’t expect the 10% blanket tariff to remain in place, so in my mind had already removed it. I (for some reason) regarded the issue as small for the U.K, because it’s a small issue for me.

If the 10% blanket tariff remains in place, then it is a serious issue for us imv.

As I’m sure you know, the E.U. is our biggest export destination by quite some margin, but yes, it’s obviously not single nation.

The obese narcissistic orange fella could making a rod for his own back by imposing such high tariffs on the E.U.

No wealthy man with half a brain in the U.S would opt for American cars, foods, wines, watches etc over European imports, so I expect some serious resistance from the upper class yanks.

As for the U.K; he certainly had our pants down, but fortunately we’re not overly reliant on trade with the U.S. (because we barely produce anything of world class quality anymore).

As for JD, I do wonder where our (and Nike’s) production is going to move to. Which countries actually has a strong hand to negotiate with, aside from some European nations?

I think the Germans would have struck a quick deal out of desperation, but how any deal can appease all of the European nations whilst benefiting Trump is unfathomable to me.

Could be some nice European bargains on offer soon though… Giz a shout if you find anything please!

Runthoseprofits,

I’m glad the matter has been resolved now.

I think the management team have done an excellent job on all fronts for the past few years, personally.

Value is being unlocked here through deleveraging, and I want that to continue. Dividend obsessed investors can invest in the likes of LGEN, can’t they?

Poker,

The flip side, Nike aren’t going to engage in a price war with JD. That’s the main takeaway for me.

There will be lots of selling today from the likes of ‘AimMaster’ as traders and investors who bought the real dip lock in profits.

I think much of the selling is actually due to an expectation that the market would reactive negatively, as opposed to their own actual views.

I can’t say I’m surprised. Personally, my focus remains on the longer-term prospects of the company.

It’s not quite as a level where I fancy loading up though.

Tommy/Ben,

Context is important.

Look at Shoe Zone’s earnings (or lack of) today… pretty sizeable losses!!

I reduced my holding about a week ago as I was massively overweight, so I’ll be topping up if we do hit 80p… or ‘the 50’s’

Diving deeper into the numbers, the U.S earnings have been poor in this new financial year, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given the tariff situation (could have easily been a disaster; as the market was expecting it to be when the share price was around 60p).

Trading in line with expectations given the headwinds is very reassuring to me, personally, and they’re diversifying the supply chain to protect themselves against these issues moving forward (and rightly so).

Hopefully there’s some pent up demand in the U.S, which could materialise as consumer confidence is restored.

Those are my views anyway.

Results aren’t ’brilliant’ imv, but they’re very respectable given the circumstances imo.

Nascan,

I think £1 is a bit lofty, but as I've explained previously, I don't apply a high earnings multiple to company's like this.

I can see a fairly clear runway to 60p+ though.

Next year*

Burgese,

Great info, thank you.

I personally expect this to be just under £5 new year, but longer-term my forecasts are showing a route to £16, and I've been pretty conservative.

Risk remains, but the potential upside is ridiculous imo.

PJ,

I started using Stockopedia a few months ago, and now I can't imagine investing without it. If I used it previously, I'd have found some absolute gems which I'd have profited from greatly, and I've also noticed that it would have rescued me from some poorer decisions that I'd made (due to how it displays the data and the return ons etc).

It's also excellent for saving time. On your phone you can often rule out a stock in about 30 seconds, by simply looking at the metrics. You also get brief reports on the updates of each company which has released results or a material RNS (at least in the U.K), so you remain very informed. Likewise, they tell you which updates are due in the following week, so you can put the interesting updates in your calendar etc.

For example, I found CTA through the app recently and bought in just before the rally. I also manage my nan's portfolio and managed to get her an average price of 25p (mine is 28.5p); in that one purchase alone it's more than paid for itself several times over.

It's useful to all types of investors. I'm a very active investor, and I ignore the stockranks to a degree (albeit I've never found a good stock with a low stockrank), but passive investors can set their own personal parameters where they only invest in high stockrank stocks etc.

You can get a 2 week free trial atm I believe.

Courdelion,

It’s not a major issue or anything like that, I just noticed a pattern of FCF generally underperforming EPS.

It’s just something I’d keep an eye on in the future if I was a holder.

On the contrary, I noticed the TTM FCF number today of around 23.5p per share, which is almost double the EPS over the same period… the numbers might lack accuracy on all fronts.

It’s a good company overall imo, and I was personally impressed with the results.

I’ll continue watching with interest.

Nascan,

I can’t recall my view on IGR’s NAV now, but I had to make some heavy adjustments to their balance sheet to get to what I felt was a true NAV for the company.

I don’t treat receivables or inventory etc like they’re cash.

I fully understand your view on this and SFR. It hasn’t been easy sitting on my hands looking at these opportunities, but I prefer to own exceptionally strong businesses, especially while they’re also cheap. In the words of Buffett ‘I like a sure bet’, and I don’t have to swing at every ball thrown in my direction.

So I’m a value investor, but with a huge focus on quality. I’d rather invest in a great company while it’s cheap, than a mediocre company while it’s bargain. I’ve had my fingers burnt with the latter with IGR (albeit I sold most of my shares before the crash) and with CRL (did the same, but took a loss there on my 2nd term of owning it after owning it from around 50p up to £1.25 previously).

JD is over 20% of my portfolio atm, but ideally, I’d like it to be 15%. It’s far too cheap for me to trim atm though.

I don’t own any ETFs, and tbh, I never will.

My condolences for the Argentex loss. I personally avoid those types of companies as I see them as much higher risk than most investors do.

FWIW (not a lot), I think a lot of investors will be wanting to buy JD, but are feeling a bit reluctant to, because others have just picked up their shares in the 60’s. Moreover, others will have sold at the lows and now believe that they’ll get their fingers burnt again on a re-entry.

At some stage, I expect the reality to sink in that such an opportunity is extremely unlikely to occur again for the foreseeable future, followed by a FOMO rally.

I think market confidence in JD is growing by the day as the share price continues to stabilise, and I think the profit takers should have filled their boots by now (if not, I think they will do soon), resulting in low volume on the sell side.

Aside from any negative news, I think we’ll continue to see a steady climb from here…. On any positive news, I think we could see a double digit green day.

Personally, I think we’ll see a 14p-15p EPS during the World Cup year, and I think we might be flavour of the month around that time for traders and investors looking to ride the tailwinds.

Onwards and upwards.

Still not a holder, and I’ve decided against an entry for the foreseeable future, but I thought the results were very positive.

One thing I’d keep an eye on is FCF however, unless stockopedia’s FCF ps numbers are incorrect.

Bazza,

If you think that this is fairly valued, I won't argue with you.

Good luck.

Very sensible strategy Alnwick.

If the share price of a stock you like declines for no valid reason, it’s a gift imo.

I didn’t top up today, but I will do if the slide continues.

A rare occasion where British investors have an opportunity to load up while the yanks are still in bed.

90 day tariff pause has been agreed between China and the U.S. It’s all starting to look like a flash in the pan. Hopefully a U.S recession is avoided now (Q2 numbers should improve because of the huge amount of imports during Q1 anyway, as imports are deducted from GDP I believe).