Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Lucan,

Yes, I did imply that in my opinion, JD is worth far more than 70p, and I do personally believe that anybody who sold at 70p or lower, either has very little emotional control or very little understanding of value investing in quality businesses.

It’s now above 72p (when I made that comment), so what’s your point?

Yes, I topped up near the bottom, and I’m pretty sure I stated that on here; a wonderful gift from Mr Market which I’m very grateful for.

Anyway, let’s not continue this fruitless conversation.

Nascan,

Imo, that only tells part of the story.

There could be more customer bankruptcies, more margin squeezing from customers, lower spending from consumers etc.

I couldn’t call it either way, in the short-term or the long-term.

Good luck though, there’s huge upside on offer here if management turn it around (properly this time).

Nascan,

Do you have any evidence for this please? As in, some articles or reports detailing the supply chains of IGR’s competitors.

Onsolidground,

Apologies for the lack of clarity; I was referring to the market in general.

I think CARD can pass on any cost inflation with relative ease.

From memory, we’re expediting a £14m hit, but Darcy explained that mitigation measures will be in place. That equates to a c.2.6% price increase across the board by my reckoning.

I can’t see that scaring off too many customers.

Lordlucan,

With all due respect, I struggle to understand what you’re saying, because you don’t speak in a clear manner.

Oh yes, anybody who sold in the 70’s and bought back in the 60’s did well (and better than me), but I’m not a trader or gambler, so it is of absolutely no concern to me. I don’t recall saying ‘this definitely won’t go below 70p momentarily’ or anything of that nature?

Can such a trader do this consistently, every time? If so, they’ll be richer than Buffett by 2030.

You’re clearly upset about something, and for some reason, you want to take out your frustration on me (a stranger). I can only suggest putting your dummy back in your mouth.

Lordlucan,

Homework on what? If you have a way of predicting share price movements in advance with 100% accuracy, I’m all ears.

I’ve been averaging down at the lows, and I’d be buying a lot more now if I wasn’t already so heavy on JD.

What I was saying yesterday, essentially, is that if JD looks like a sell to anybody at the current share price, I’d like to know what else they’re selling, because those stocks might also be very appealing to me.

I fully agree Pokerchips,

High price target = we want the momentum to continue, so us and our pals can sell into the rally.

Low price target = we’d like to buy in lower from some no-nothing gullible investors.

Lambs to the slaughter.

All imho. Think for yourself.

Anti-venom,

Wind your neck in little fella, your posts are the worst I’ve ever seen on this platform.

Absolutely useless at de-ramping and/or providing anything of any value to anybody. Complete waste of a space.

MrNinja,

You’ve mentioned these trading codes several times now, but I don’t recall you ever being correct.

Who told you about this?

Uallmakeitup,

I’m searching down the back of my sofa for a few quid to thrown in, but to no avail.

I’m remaining 25% cash for the foreseeable future, as I expect certain companies (none of which I own) to be hit by inflation in the coming months in the U.K.

Obviously there’s the NI and MW cost increases as well (much of which is priced in already with most stocks imo), which could cause some surprises.

I also expect some sizeable earnings misses, especially in the U.S, but also with heavily tariff-impacted companies elsewhere.

Lastly, I’ll be amazed if the U.S economy doesn’t shrink this quarter… then the recession fears could start taking hold.

It’s going to be a fun few months ahead. I’m not fearful, but I do feel prepared.

Looks like they’re loading up on red days.

As I’ve said before, if any of you are selling shares of JD, please let me know what else you are selling. Genuinely.

Rats,

Judging by the stability of the share price, I imagine volume has been quite low.

Any negative macro news and they’ll probably mop up on those days (much like some of us).

There are two things which I completely disregard as an investor (and I mean 100% disregard): broker price targets and crypto.

May as well go to a fortune teller for ‘price targets’ imo.

‘74p current share price? Ok, sound, just throw an 80p on it’

Uallmakeitup,

‘The stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient’ - Buffett.

I’ve seen many a man on this very board sell up just before a huge rally.

We’d all like the share price to rally overnight, but it takes as long as it takes (as you know) my friend… nice dividends and top up opportunities in the meantime I think.

I actually want CARD to fall, whilst some of my other holdings rise so I can buy more CARD… with it being around 20% of my portfolio now, I need to chill out however 😅

Pokerchips,

I’m not invested in any U.S stocks, so 90% of what you’ve said there is of very little concern to me tbh.

Also, the neither the U.S, nor China can afford for these tariffs to be imposed. Imo, the U.S just wants to shift some power away from China.

Once companies have started relocating etc, I expect this ‘trade war’ to become a distant memory very quickly.

The tariff pause on technology goods and the general pause has already shown us that IF tariffs will destroy the U.S economy, he’ll bottle it.

A bond market collapse could send the U.S into an economic depression… I can think of many powerful people and organisations who won’t allow that to happen. Moreover, bear in mind how much wealth Trump PERSONALLY has on the line.

There is a huge difference between what Trump can theoretically do, and what he can realistically do; my focus is solely on the latter… anybody can talk the big talk.

Pokerchips,

I’ve seen you post on the bullet boards of several exceptional value stocks down the years, so you’re certainly no mug.

If, theoretically, a company buys back 50% of their shares outstanding, do you think the share price will remain flat? Of course not.

EPS will rise in accordance with the buyback… that should result in some upside.

And if the share price remains low, guess what will happen again next year or in 6 months…

Uallmakeitup,

What is stuck in a rut?

The business or the share price? I focus on the former, personally.

According to ChatGPT…

General:

• Only about 1.5%-2% of U.S GDP is directly tied to imports from China (imagine how much of this relates to Amazon, fast fashion, Apple and raw materials etc).

Fashion:

• 10 years ago, Chinese imports accounted for 40-50% of the U.S clothing market. In 2023 it was around 33% and declining.

• However, if we strip out fast fashion (from Shein, Temu etc), this number falls to 20-25% (and declining).

• It doesn’t end there, however: with good quality sportswear (I gave JD and Hibbett as examples), Chinese imports allowed for 15-20% of the supply back in 2023, and again, this has been declining since.

• As for which products are still being often made in China: it is usually accessories (bags, hats etc) or throw away fashion. High end materials are often exported from China to the likes of Vietnam for final stitching etc, so I imagine the ‘value add’ on these items makes Vietnam’s tariff exposure much more important than China’s.

• Vietnam accounts for roughly 50% of the production for Adidas and Nike footwear.

• Labour costs in Vietnam are approximately 40%-50% lower than in China, so a move out of China, irregardless of tariffs, may well be margin enhancing anyway in the long-term.

The devil (or opportunity) is often found in the detail.

As I’ve been accused of ramping, I should probably explain why I’m posting so frequently on here: the investors who I know well aren’t really engaged atm, so it’s either post on here, talk to my Nan (who understands 50% of what I say) or talk to myself.

I must say though, it’s been incredibly beneficial working away in isolation. I’m hyper-focused on my own investing thesis again. It’s bloody exciting.

Do your own research. I do not have a crystal ball. I’m just showing my hand.

Blah,

In short, their costs will increase this financial year. There will be some benefit from the minimum wage increase however.

It looks a strong business to me, but isn’t anywhere near cheap enough for me to take a serious interest, so I’ll leave it there.

I just cannot get my head around how it would be ‘cheap’ at £7+, when imo, it’s around fair value now.

Https://youtu.be/ppEozb_Wy70

^^^

• First trade deal is very close according to Trump.

• Vietnamese and Taiwanese leaders are in Washington today.

• Deals can be agreed and signed within a 24 hour time frame (non-complex deals aren’t too difficult to iron out imo) according to Trump.

• The U.S want tariff and non-tariff barriers to their exports to be lifted (not hard).

• The U.S are happy to continue importing goods BUT want to diversify away from Chinese imports.

• Primary concern for the U.S is their dependence on China (I agree on this, 100%)

Flash in a pan imv. Do your own research.

Have a good weekend all.