Member Info for LorenzoLynch

FWIW, I also expect this to continue falling tomorrow, and I think we’ll see it break into the 50’s.

I’m happy to sit on my hands for now.

I expect a lot of unaffected companies to be dragged down as sentiment declines, so I’m looking to keep some powder dry for the coming weeks.

I’ve held a concentrated portfolio for a while now for this reason, and because I think the U.S market has been ripe for collapse for a while. My only U.S exposure is through JD.

Got caught out here with a series of unfortunate events in the short-term, just like many of you… could it have actually gone much worse over the past 9 months or so?

As for 20p… 🤣🤣🤣. Genuine had me laughing aloud.

A decade to recover? 🤣.

We’re not in a Great Depression.

Let’s see how the negotiations unfold over the coming months; that’s the key to a recovery.

If every economist and investor on the planet thinks that these tariffs are going to cause economic turmoil, I think it’s highly likely the situation improves dramatically from here.

I’d like to be invested when that change occurs.

Worst case scenario imo, apparel companies will have to move their manufacturing hubs to other cheap locations with lower tariffs. Of course this will take time, but as we don’t manufacture most of our clothes, the capex spend would be relatively small for us imo.

The apparel industry is huge in the U.S… can they afford to let it collapse? I doubt it.

Nonsense,

Can you elaborate on the benefit on the de-minimus closure? Are you referring to the likes of Shein, Amazon and dropshipping companies also being hit?

Also, is anybody aware of any countries which can supply our goods for peanuts with minimal tariff exposure (at the baseline 10%)?

Nonsense,

I understand your point of view. As I’ve said, I don’t think these tariffs will be a permanent fixture, because I don’t think the U.S economy can withstand the impact, so I’m willing to take the risk, especially given the huge potential upside. The SP could fall further though, and I’ll top up if it does.

Moreover, on a geo-political level, it will result in increased trade between other nations and China; again, something which the U.S cannot afford. After the Vietnam war, I can’t see the U.S allowing Vietnam to fall into the hands of China for the sake of some tariffs.

The U.S. cannot afford to isolate itself, and Trump can’t afford to upset the vast majority of business owners in his own country and around the world. That said, I do think the tariffs on the automotive industry will remain, as they give Tesla a huge competitive advantage and Elon’s given the orange man some serious backhanders for the privilege.

I am limiting my exposure to this situation however by refraining from investing in other tariff-exposed stocks (unless some similar bargains to JD arise).

I’m 31, and I’m a contrarian and value investor, so ‘being greedy when others are fearful’ is right up my street. If I was a retired investor, I’d have a smaller stake for sure.

The fair value of JD imo was over £2 not so long ago… I don’t think the fair value of the company has fallen c.66%. Also, I see 200% upside here within 12 months if the tariffs are revoked.

Nonsense,

I don’t think the U.S will be in a rush to negotiate across the board, but I imagine deals will be drawn up fairly swiftly (3-6 months) with its key trading partners.

For example, certain industries (and U.S. companies) will take an absolute battering if he doesn’t reach fairly prompt trade agreements with Vietnam, China, Taiwan etc.

The key term used tonight, and it was used every minute seemingly was ‘reciprocal’ tariffs I.e. tariffs in response to pre-existing tariffs. That suggests to me that the door is open for reductions on tariffs from both parties.

The term ‘reciprocal’ and the proportionality of the tariffs would not be present, if this was not his attitude on the matter.

I don’t see it as positive at all, but I see the opportunities in every negative situation, hence why I didn’t panic during Covid. Remember how the pandemic rally came on the back of some people believing the world was going to end?

A recession in the U.S could force more quantitative easing for example.

There are many different potential outcomes from here and I think things will gradually improve now today’s parade is behind us.

A trade war is the big risk here imo. That’s the major concern that I have.

I don’t n disagree that JD are facing a significant headwind now; as are their competitors. Weaker companies could go under swiftly.

I’m still optimistic on the long-term prospects… I don’t see this continuing long enough for the retail sector to completely fall apart.

Fortunately this is my only stock with tariff exposure… some portfolios could be in for an absolute hammering. Disaster is already priced in here, but it isn’t with many other companies.

Nonsense,

I agree, there’s no avoiding the hit, but I don’t expect these tariffs to all remain in place, because in my opinion:

1) The U.S. will not be able to withstand the inflationary impact.

2) As the U.S stock market tumbles (or at least the share prices of many companies), the U.S economy shrinks and unemployment increases, Trump will be under some serious pressure to lift some of the tariffs.

3) Counties like China, Mexico and Vietnam are so heavily dependant on U.S trade that they will be falling over themselves in an attempt to strike trade deals. If tariffs are removed from both parties, we’ll see an inflexion, and huge shift in market sentiment.

If these tariffs were going to be a permanent measure, I think they’d have been brought in slowly. Lumping huge tariffs on countries only serves two political purposes imv: to create shock/chaos and to act as a strong negotiating tool.

I certainly don’t view the tariffs as good news for JD, but the company doesn’t produce much of its own goods, fortunately. Our competitors could be hit much harder, resulting in market share gains.

It’s going to be a very interesting negotiation with the likes of Nike (who will be hammered with tariffs) moving forward.

If these tariffs persist, I wouldn’t be surprised if JD Sports mostly pivot out of manufacturing their own goods for sale in the U.S. I can’t see U.S manufacturing being any cheaper for us.

As for Hibbett, they don’t produce any of their own goods, so the only real risk there is a general economic one in my opinion.

According to ChatGPT (I don’t have time to go through the RNS’ tonight) approximately 50% of our cost base is COGS, so a $30 pair of trainers imported from China will now cost slightly north of $40. It’s not great, but not the end of the world.

Is psychological*

WishingStar,

You didn’t answer my question regarding your hidden agenda and sheer incompetence in your attempts to deceive.

“Laugh all you want sir. But for you bulls in this chat please explain why this SP is doing so terrible?”.

I’m surprised you’re asking this question, considering you allegedly work at an investment bank. It’s called short-term economic headwinds and negative investor sentiment; the first matter is, well, SHORT-TERM and the second isn’t psychology, and can therefore turn in a moment when there is a positive catalyst.

Anyway, you can put your dummy back in your mouth now little fella.

Lokiloo,

Thank you!

Wishingstar,

This was your first ever post on LSE:

“Hi everyone, I am 25 years old should I invest £20,000 in this share now or wait a few weeks till this has settled down? I’m holding this for 5 years that’s my time horizon”

Shortly after, you told us all that you’re a qualified ACA and you work for an investment bank.

Since then, all you’ve done is criticise JD sports and you’ve actively encouraged people to sell (I didn’t realise that was legal?). You’re now, judging by the tone of your posts, the world leading expert on the subject JD Sports and fashion retail.

Since opening an LSE account, you’ve only posted on JD’s BB.

Are you short, looking for a lower entry point or simply clueless?

I sent CF an email regarding my issue sending cards abroad and received this response:

Hi there,

Thanks for getting in touch with cardfactory!

We’re aware of a small technical glitch preventing our system from accepting overseas postcodes, and we’re working hard to fix it.

In the meantime, we suggest entering the overseas delivery address but using a UK postcode in the postcode field to progress your order. Once placed, just reply to this email with your order number and the correct postcode, and we’ll update it manually.

To ensure we can make the change before dispatch, please place your order and contact us between 9am-5pm Monday to Friday. If ordered overnight, it may ship before we can amend it.

We’re really sorry for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience! Let us know if you need any further help.

Footandmouth,

You have nothing to apologise for; my reasoning was as much for your benefit as everybody else’s. You’re a far better man than those who you’re arguing with.

You’ve put some very helpful posts on here previously. Thank you.

I’ve also engaged with the trolls previously, when I repeatedly asked them to explain why they post on here… they couldn’t answer as there was obviously no noble justifiable explanation.

Anyway, all the best!

Jay,

Good shout. I’ve never filtered anybody before. Can I do it on my phone or does it require a desktop log in?

… you become just as much of an annoyance as them.

Put your big boy pants on and ignore them. They feed off your attention (likely unloved in their personal lives, one might assume).

What they say has no bearing on the success of Predator Oil and Gas; likewise with anybody who argues back.

This BB should be reserved for posts about the company; positive or negative.

Stop embarrassing yourselves.

Johnjo,

Footlocker has been on the decline for years. It didn’t look cheap to me at a p/e of 7; it looked like a value trap.

• Far exclusive deals with manufacturers

• Far greater dependency on Nike

• Awful balance sheet

• Less diversified in every way imaginable

• Far less diversified product mix

• No clear position in the market

• Zero moat and barely any customer loyalty

• Far less desirable brand

• Incredibly reliant on selling trainers (can easily be purchased online… from JD, ASOS or the like).

• Very reliant on US retail; an incredibly competitive space unless you have customer loyalty and moat.

The list goes on. As Footlocker continues to decline, JD should (I hope) increase market share. It’s a weak competitor which could and should be kicked to the curb.

It’s like analysing Nokia’s decline and expecting Apple to collapse in the same manner imo.

JD could experience a decline in the future, I agree, but I think we’re decades away from that, not months or years. The company has held up exceptionally well given the headwinds, and we’re yet to really see the benefit of some of the acquisitions imo.

Johnjo,

What you’ve said is true for every company on the planet; compressed margins do hit the bottom line if growth isn’t sufficient.

Note, JD Sports operates in a somewhat cyclical sector… it’s no surprise that they’re experiencing some difficulties given the cost of living issues in the U.K, the U.S slowdown, rising NLW costs and so on.

If there were no headwinds, I think this would be trading at £2+ per share…. Now I can buy shares for less than 70p. That’s a very attractive risk vs reward imo, let alone the catalysts.

A recovery + those catalysts landing at the same time would be monumental imo.

LittleAston,

Ahh, I see. I used to live on Alderhithe Grove briefly when I was growing up as my mom rented a bungalow there for 3 years.

I have a similar plan, but would ideally like to leave the U.K. when I’ve saved up enough to leave.

TomBeef,

That was it! I also initially invested at 30p, but have since sold the tops and bought the bottoms.

I wasn’t watching my portfolio or the macro news closely at all however prior to the budget (girlfriend was constantly on my case about me not giving her enough attention etc). Anyway, I had my fingers burned, when there wasn’t much immediate upside imo at £1.45 ps… in normal times, I sell when there’s still 10%-15% upside left, which coincidently would have caused my to be exist at £1.40-£1.45.

I did trim some shares before when it was high, but I’ve been topping up at sub-90p and it’s back to being my biggest position.

What I love about CARD is how the company is recession-proof, with predictable earnings, top management (Hubbard was bloody useless), vertically integrated and now there’s a big dividend to keep things ticking over nicely. Barely any debt as well, and a continued deleveraging should continue to enhance margins.

With JD, I hate the clothing sector, but I think this is one of the highest quality companies in the sector as it’s broadly safe from changes in fashion and I love how diversified it is. It’s stated as a pure value play for me at £1.04 before the rise to £1.50, but now I’m looking forward to the catalysts in 2026.

As for The Works, I do question its moat, the quality of their goods (I bought a celotape dispenser and it broken within 10 minutes after a light impact on some thick carpets) and there were carrying a fair bit of debt the last time I looked at them. I think Darcy is opting for overseas expansion (as per the recent U.S acquisition) and tbh, I prefer that approach.

TomBeef,

I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if US bids keep flying in for U.K and international stocks.

I mean, if a U.S president wants to allow his friends to buy companies all over the world on the cheap, tariffs (or the threat of them) is the perfect way to do it.

Since reading Machiavelli quite extensively, no political decision of the past 10 years has shocked me, globally, with the exception of Reeves’ budget. That’s not a joke.

Take the automotive tariffs… coincidentally, they give Tesla a competitive advantage over the other U.S automotive manufacturers, because Tesla use more U.S made components than any of their competitors.

Trump, like every other politician, wants more for himself and his friends, and less for everybody else. Viewed through such a lens, everything looks pretty straightforward to me.

Worst case scenario, JD will have to adapt their supply chain…. As will their competitors. Weaker competitors could go out of business while that occurs, resulting in market share gains.

Very valid point on Pentland btw, thank you. Do you still hold CARD? I recall speaking to you on there a long while ago.