Member Info for LorenzoLynch

remaining undervalued stocks left on the market imo. At 90p per share, a return to pre-covid earnings (15p EPS), would leave us with a p/e of 6, which is insane imo, especially when you consider the turnaround potential. Even a half decent performance from the management team should see this bag from here in the near future, and that’s without the dividend or earnings growth. I’m really looking forward to seeing how this company evolves over the next few years. If any of you know of some similar stocks to this on the market (significantly undervalued stocks with a solid brand and some proper moat), I’d really appreciate it if you’d enlighten me as I’m struggling to find opportunities that meet my criteria atm

Is required here imo. While I respect why the recent sell-off occurred, I do think that Novacyt has been oversold. I believe that this is probably due to investors following the momentum of the stock (i.e. I’ll sell now, then buy back in when it’s on the rise back up to fair value again), profit-taking, de-ramping, stop-losses being triggered, fears of catching a falling knife and of course, poor communication from the company. Personally, I’m not panicking at all. If this was still at £7+ per share, I‘d understand the hesitation from the market (I wouldn’t be holding this at a share price of £7+), but at under £4 per share, and with investor sentiment completely in the bin, I can only see us moving upwards from here, albeit I think we’re going to have to wait for a positive catalyst before we see a noticeable improvement in the share price. I suspect that there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for a significant catalyst, and if/when it does arrive, I believe that this will rise just as quickly as it has fallen, as buyers struggle to acquire shares due to there being a lack of sellers. Lastly, why is so much attention being given to daily price movements here? Unless you’re a daytrader, how does it have any importance?

Just more unimportant news imo. Have the fundamentals changed? If not, then neither has my stance. Even a small sell-off will be followed by a rise when those same people who sold (in an arrogant attempt to time the market) later buy back in. Will be putting this stock out of my mind until June, with a few price alerts set so I can take advantage of any potential dips

Is very much in our favour now. I can’t see much, if any, downside from here. If (well, when, imo) Novacyt announce a large contract, this will rise as quickly as it fell. Hopefully everybody has calmed down over the weekend, and will now analyse this company with a rational mind. I don’t think testing is going away anytime soon

Lovelace,

I personally don’t have any fears regarding the refinancing. As RichardKnife has said, I think most people are missing the forest for the trees here, and have been for a while (something I see everyday, on almost every BB I look at). I’ve held a position in CARD since May 2020, if I remember correctly. Ignoring all the noise and trusting my own analysis of the company has served me well so far, so I’m not going to lose sleep over minor hiccups that I probably won’t even remember in a couple of years. I think we’re over the worst now and with Covid deaths (well, deaths within 28 days of a positive test) at near zero, I fail to see any significant foreseeable risks on the horizon

Moon,

I don’t really set price targets tbh, but CARD should be a £1 per share already imo. I’m a patient man though and I’d like to continue cost averaging, so I hope we don’t see that valuation just yet

Of the scaremongering? Or will we hear calls for 30p per share before the day is out?

I personally can’t see any negative catalysts for CARD for the foreseeable future. Only around 40 people are dying per day in the U.K. within 28 days of a positive Covid test (so not necessarily of dying of Covid, but merely testing positive within the past 28 days prior to dying) out of roughly 1,600 daily deaths in the U.K. That data suggests to me that Covid deaths in the U.K. are pretty much zero atm, and there is therefore no plausible justification for delaying the reopening of retail any longer. That said, the government and the masses seem incapable of understanding basic statistical information, so nothing can be categorically ruled out. Everybody loves to talk about cases, but hardly anybody seems to be discussing false positive tests or (the lack of) actual Covid deaths atm. We seem to have shifted from an epidemic, to a casedemic. Anyway, I expect us to move onwards and upwards rather rapidly from here. Recovery appears to be well underway now, as expected. Following the recovery, my attention will shift towards the growth strategy and the performance of the new CEO. As this is the largest position in my portfolio atm, I won’t be adding any shares today, but I would be buying aggressively if I wasn’t so heavily weighted here

Paperhands,

Exactly, hence why it’s pointless trying to time the market. All an intelligent investor can do is work out the intrinsic value, and wait for it be realised. How people are still trying to the market with CARD after getting it drastically wrong last Friday is beyond me. Yes, CARD could fall back to 30p, just like any stock can fall by 50% or more within the hour, but does that mean you should sell your entire holding? It’s a sure fire way to never experience a multi-bagger; that’s the only thing you’re guaranteeing yourself by investing with such a strategy. If you want/need to trim, sure, it’s the smart move, but to sell everything because the share price has gone up is exactly like watering your weeds and cutting your flowers... well, unless your flowers are overvalued stocks with poor fundamentals like TSLA and NIO, in which case, you better cut your flowers before they turn to weeds :D. My only dilemma with CARD atm is working out how much cash I should keep on the side to buy an RI and/or big dip. I think I’m going to wait for around £1 for my next rebalance though as I’ll be too overweight by then, unless the rest of my portfolio keeps up with it

@Da_Matser
I agree. I was joking about this with my pal last night. Why hold CARD through hard times when the share price is depressed, liquidity is in question, the stores are closed, the country is in lockdown and the company has no CEO etc... then sell when those issues are mostly resolved, shops are due to open, the company is set to receive a £6m grant, the app is out and sentiment towards the stock has changed (momentum can send a bankrupt company into the stratosphere, let alone a profitable, undervalued one). Absolute madness imo. I find it easier to comprehend just staying away from CARD full stop. Horrendous timing, and in many cases, from people who were allegedly going to hold this long-term. I didn’t realise how commonplace emotional investing was until joining LSE. Just think, people were selling this in the low 30’s a fortnight ago. Ah well, each to their own. Without panic-sellers and de-rampers, we wouldn’t have been able to pick this up on the cheap. Hopefully we get another opportunity to pick up more shares for peanuts in the future. At the very least, the media will be selling pandemic/lockdown fear for the next decade or so, so I think we’ll have plenty of buying opportunities

@Tank48
Dear Paddy or Pokerchips,
It's nice to see you again. 35p is your 'sell target' for CARD, even though we're sitting at double that? Are you waiting for it to come down so you can sell at a loss? Or are you shorting it? Or are you just trying to bring some comedy to bulletin board? Can you please reveal your calculations, because I can't think of a remotely realistic scenario that would make 35p the fair value for this stock. You expecting a ban on birthdays or an alien invasion? A 35p share price would result in CARD having a P/E ratio of just over 2, based on pre-Covid earnings. Is that realistic? I don't blame people for selling or trimming if they're happy with their profit or unhappy with the management team, or the like, but I've got no respect for the likes of you talking pure nonsense. New account today and you're straight on here de-ramping instead of adding value on the board of a stock that you're invested in... not suspicious at all. Why not share your own research instead of writing 'DYOR'? Btw I don't expect a dividend for a long-term yet and I'm prepared for a placing; such things were known when this was at 30p. I'm such a fool, I should have sold back then when it was even more undervalued. Any advice on what stocks we should all invest into instead please? Criteria: more realistic upside than CARD, and less realistic downside

I agree. Who are CARD alleged to have lost market share to? This company had some serious moat and customer loyalty the last time I checked. I must have imagined the online growth in 2020 (and that was with a poor website)

Just the beginning imo. Will be topping up on any significant dips. The smartest play with CARD since March 2020 has been to hold firm once you have a good average, buy the dips, trim when necessary (in order to rebalance your portfolio), ignore the noise and keep some spare cash on the sides for an RI (should it come). It’s an incredible simple stock to own imo, but some of you treat it like it’s a low cap cryptocurrency. Chill out a bit and know your limits; if Buffett can’t time the market at normal times, I highly doubt that any of us can at such an uncertain time in history

Paddy,

I appreciate that post from you. Now I understand your criteria more clearly, I understand why you are remaining patient on this one. I don't see as much risk for CARD as you do, hence our difference of opinion. Where you see previous poor management and the stores being closed due to Covid as a problems, I see those things as opportunities. I think this is prime time to be involved for the turnaround, but if you don't mind missing out on some of the ride upwards, then I fully understand why you are waiting until the recovery is underway. I'm heavily invested now, but will ensure that I keep enough cash on the side for an RI (if it comes), a dip (if we see the 30's again) or averaging up (if the stock recovers from here). Hopefully Rishi's new grants will help keep us ticking over until the reopening is underway; at the very least, I think this announcement will see CARD's share price hold firm, or even rise, on Monday

Paddy (aka Mr 30p),

I'm as baffled as you are about the selling from alleged long-term holders today. As I said in my post, the sentiment here seems to change with the weather, but to say 'how can you take this board seriously?' when you post on here more frequently than anybody else and you consistently write uninformative, biased posts, is even more perplexing. I'm still waiting for your stock suggestions. Criteria: higher realistic potential upside than CARD, less risk and a better P/E ratio (based on pre-Covid earnings). If you can list 5, I'll sell all my shares on the opening bell on Monday

True, but equally, they might not. I prefer to base my investing decisions on fundamentals, not guesswork. I will, however, remain financially prepared for an RI

Not really any new information today (certainly nothing negative), yet I'm seeing quite a few of you jumping overboard. I completely understand why a swing trader would sell on a day like today (a Friday and there was a consolidation in the share price), but I can't for the life of me understand why a long-term investor would sell their complete holding just because they believe that an RI is going to shock the market into a huge sell-off at some point. The RI is all anybody seems to talk about, so how can the market not possibly have priced it in? Are you relying on greater fool theory and/or future performance perfectly mimicking past performance ? Are any of considering the possibility of a positive catalyst e.g. a takeover? Sentiment towards this stock, both in the market and on this forum, seems to change like the weather (ideal for swing trading, right Paddy?)

I'm not knocking swing trading btw. If that's your cup of tea, fair play, because I'm sure you've made a pretty penny from trading this stock since March 2020. As for fellow investors, now that there is light at the end of the tunnel, I wouldn't be so certain that this will see 30p again. Ironically, the only realistic catalyst that I can think of for such a drop is everybody believing that it's heading for the low 30's again (which could happen, of course).

If I was the CEO of CARD, I'd do an RI, but I wouldn't do it now. Instead, I'd wait until May when the market is optimistic, money is coming in, new management is in place, and the share price is much closer to fair value than it currently is. If they were going to do an RI during the lockdown, don't you think they would have done one by now? That's just my opinion though and I have no idea where the share price is heading in the short-term (and neither do any of you)

PaperHands,

I either keep it simple to get a ballpark (usually for complex situations), like I mentioned below, or I do a discounted cash flow, or I do both. Those valuations have been to be taken with a large pinch of salt though, albeit, I think there’s a huge margin of safety here at the current share price. ROA, ROE, P/B (poor here), net profit margin (I won’t touch low margin companies, as there’s not enough margin of safety) etc are all things that I pay close attention in my initial analysis. I’m a big fan of book value as well, but I’ve seen some very questionable asset valuations recently (most commercial property valuations I’ve seen lately are a joke, but they’ll remain in bubble territory until the BoE stop printing so aggressively)

I hear you TomBeef. Imo, it makes no sense selling something for far less than it’s worth. If I had a £300,000 house that I’d purchased for £75,000, would I sell it to somebody simply because they’d offered me £120,000 for it? Not a chance. I treat the market in the same way

PaperHands,

For me, it will all depend on how well the growth strategy is executed and how well the management team manage the company’s finances in the future. Due to Covid, I’m basing my initial valuation on pre-covid EPS (around 15p per share x a p/e of 10 = £1.50), rather than current earnings. Of course, there’s a fair bit of uncertainty atm, so I will adjust my valuation as the recovery unfolds. With an increasing online presence, new management, increased prices (which the data suggests, will not adversely impact on demand) and new partnerships with retailers like Aldi, I can’t see CARD failing to reach an EPS of 15p+ once they have a full year of regular business. I’ll reassess the situation then. However, if the management fail to perform reasonably well, I’ll sell my holding regardless of the share price. As you can probably tell, I’m an earnings and balance sheet man. Everything else is secondary, or simply noise, to me. What about yourself?

Holding firm as I’m in for the long-term and will be looking to buy any significant dips (40p or below). Timing the market has worked wonders for me a few times (I sold CCIV on Monday for instance... a spec, course), but I’ve also had my fingers burned badly a few times, and I don’t fancy taking the risk with one of my largest holdings. I don’t blame traders for wanting to take some/all their profit off the table today though; it’s very much an ‘each to your own’ situation imo. I think the key over the next couple of months is to add while it’s under 50p (where a psychological resistance evidently exists), because when it does break that resistance, it might find a support above it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the break-out leads to a serious FOMO rally as well, but that’s likely a convo for April/May. Anyway, it’s nice to see honest opinions and a level of calmness return to the BB. All the best