Member Info for LorenzoLynch

Simes,

71 posts. 100% of them about Card Factory. Why?

Simes,

Good question. It's called a growth strategy mate; most companies have them. Find out more in CF's most recent presentation.

Pokerchips,

I forgot to add that I do think oil could reach a ridiculous price in the short-term (over $150), but it takes a rather vivid imagination to believe that such a high price will be sustained. What's your verdict on RCH atm?

LPD,

Unlike some, I don't comment on these boards to pump or de-ramp; I try to remain objective. FWIW I also think this is a great buying opportunity.

Latpulldown,

I don't know why you think that Card Factory is completely insulated from oil and gas prices. We feel the impact via:

- Increased distribution costs
- Increased freight costs
- The cost of some raw materials might increase
- The last time I checked, the main source of electricity in the U.K was natural gas. Obviously we use electricity for production purposes and in our stores
- Consumers will have less disposable income (yes, I know, this could actually benefit a budget retailer like ourselves)

Just off the top of my head

Pokerchips,

They're saying $150, so they have buyers for their options/futures. Russia exports 7 million bpd (half of this goes into Europe via direct pipeline). If Russia fail to sell one single drop of oil in the future, oil prices will rise to $120-£130 a barrel, theoretically. That's worst case scenario and doesn't take any mitigating factors into consideration. For example:

- Oil demand within Ukraine has fallen drastically and will remain low, for obvious reasons.
- Russian oil demand (3 million bpd) is expected to fall (a deflationary pressure IF they can find a buyer for their oil... and I'm 99% sure they will, at the right price).
- It's estimated that oil demand could fall by 1 million bpd per day due to the Ukrainian 'war' (I wouldn't call it that).
- Iran have over 100 million barrels in storage and can produce c. 1 million bpd. Light or not, it's a further deflationary pressure.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE can, and will, increase production. I expect Venezuela to do the same.

When the market releases this and the media decides to sell another type of fear, the market will rebound imo.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Turns-Lower-On-Rumors-Of-Imminent-Iran-Nuclear-Deal.html

^ Consequently, I expect some of the inflationary pressure and fear to subside. Venezuela are also hoping to do the same.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Turns-Lower-On-Rumors-Of-Imminent-Iran-Nuclear-Deal.html

Oil inflation danger averted, hopefully. Venezuela hoping to do the same, according to many sources

Cheers pal, I appreciate that. BILN looks interesting at a quick glance.

Laughton,

What else did he recommend? I’m not a subscriber you see.

Cheers

Do Card Factory have one, or are we expected to guess the dates based on previous announcements?

Cheers Ian B,

He views the company in a similar light to myself

Ian B,

Can you list some other stocks that meet that criteria please mate?

Stevebt,

Even Berkshire have had made some terrible decisions in recent years, so I’m not losing any sleep over Lombard’s short. Pretty much I’m reading lately is positive regarding both CARD, Covid-19 and the U.K. economy. Moreover, if CARD was a such great opportunity for a short, surely there would be several funds with large short positions. If I remember correctly, there was a 1.91% short open on RCH at c.50p per share in August 2020 (for a company with underlying earnings of c.30p per annum). Around a year later, it was trading at £4 per share, and still had a relatively low p/e at around 11. What qualifications do you need to work at one of these funds? A pass in BTEC healthcare and beauty? If I failed to my back myself against Luxor, I’d be a poorer man for it today. Whether you top up or not is your business though. I don’t have a crystal ball; I’m just saying that I wouldn’t personally hold fire due a short being outstanding

Stevebt,

If they do announce further restrictions, then I think it's imperative that those of us who aren't willing to live on our knees, take to the streets in protest, as by being so mild in terms of severity, whilst being so highly infectious, Omicron truly is nature's cure for Covid-19. Imagine if we had a govt that actually 'followed the science': free vitamin D, zinc and K2 supplements for everybody, non-symptomatic doctors and nurses working on Covid wards, an adequately funded NHS and a national advertising campaign for strengthening the immune system. Alternatively, we can get jabbed every 3 months for the rest of our lives (Pfizer's Plan A, presumably), let our immune systems fall into disarray (making us even more reliant on the highly-profitable benevolence of big pharma for our survival) and destroy our mental, physical and financial wellbeing, whilst we hide from new variants under our beds with our metaverse goggles on until we decompose. Ah well, at least we'll be able to send xmas and birthday cards to our fellow invertebrates through the CF's website and app. As you've probably gathered mate, I'm not keen on the idea of more pointless restrictions... even if I won't be following them lol

...To most of you :D

I'm overjoyed that we've got to Christmas without another lockdown. That was the only short-term risk that I was concerned about. Onwards and upwards in 2022, especially if Omicron leads to herd immunity. If it doesn't, we'll have another year of topping up on the cheap. Winner-winner, Turkey dinner

Simes20,

What stocks are you holding mate? I've asked you this many times, but to no avail. It's almost like you're here with the sole intention of de-ramping CARD

Brown-nose Bogle,

Why is that private information? I asked you that, because I believe that you're insincere. The 'hail Simes20' was a bit of a giveaway. Why were you looking at CF's staff vacancies? Are you invested in the company? Are you shorting it? Are you unemployed? I agree that it doesn't look like a great company to work for, but neither does anywhere in the retail sector imo. Does that alone make CF a poor investment? I didn't realise that I needed to include staff satisfaction in my DCF calculations

Jackbogle aka Simes20,

I just scanned through those vacancies and the majority of those that I saw were for 'SEASONAL sales assistants' that were being posted from as far back as September. Imagine that... a high street store employing additional members of staff for Christmas; it's busiest time of the year by a mile! Big, big shock. Thank you for enlightening us pal. What value stocks do you hold in your portfolio?

I picked up my Xmas cards and wrapping paper from my local Card Factory store yesterday and while I was there, I had a little chat with the woman who was working there (yes, only one member of staff on the floor, but all shelves were fully stacked and it was around 17:00). She’s been working for card factory for 8 years (quite a long stint considering she’s allegedly far more overworked than other retail employees and she’s on a zero/low hours contract). Anyway, she said that the store’s been very busy, but they haven’t had as many visits as they were having pre-Covid, which ties in with the recent RNS (refer to the part about number of transactions being lower, but spend per transaction being significantly higher). It looks like customers are purchasing in bulk this year, as opposed to making lots of different visits, which is of course a negative for spontaneous purchases, but positive in terms of putting less of a burden on staff (thus allowing them to keep the shelves stacked and reducing the need for overtime). An additional benefit, is that customers who would rather avoid crowded shops will be more willing to shop at card factory than they would if transactions were at normal levels.

I didn’t enquire further, but she still told me about Card Factory website and was surprised when I said that I was aware of it. 10/10 customer service, although I must say the staff have always been very good in my local CF.

I also did a rough price comparison yesterday between CF’s and Morrison’s cards. For the quality of card I like to send, I’d be paying approx £2.50 a card in Morrisons. In Card Factory, it was more like £1.70 a card. I buy at least 30 cards per annum, so that’s a saving of £25+ per year. On minimum wage, that’s what? 3 hours or so of labour? That’s just on cards alone. There’s no competition on pricing in my experience.

All of the above is of course irrelevant though. Let’s get back to splitting hairs over important matters like ‘ass managers’ and guessing what contracts CF staff are most likely to be on