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As of Friday:
2,553,108 shares purchased in approx one week
£556,763.69 spent (18.56% of £3m)
£0.21807 average price paid
SP has dropped a little, still plenty to go to prop it up.
At this rate the £3m buyback should be complete in around 5 weeks from commencement - Friday 17th May.
Makes no sence, being dragged by poor macro sentiment I guess. May buy more.
Must be time for some news on Paraguay soon. That should get this motoring and will be exciting to move into the construction phase, with more visibility of first revenue timeframe.
I’m surprised the SP hasn’t gone down more to reflect the likely reduction in cash in the business. I guess there’s uncertainty over the uptake of the tender offer, and some larger holders may decline to take part to increase their holdings after shares are cancelled.
I believe they’re due to announce tender results tomorrow, so we may see an ‘XD’ style adjustment then.
I’m hoping for a price of well under 20p (as low as possible obs), and will start buying again if that happens.
Sorry, this was the IQE link I meant to post, from last week - https://www.iqep.com/media/press-releases/2024/iqe-enhances-ai-connectivity-for-data-communications-with-advanced-high-speed-portfolio-expansion/
LOAM invested and had a board seat for a time at Nanoco, and are IQE's largest shareholder.
I'm not sure if there's a QD related connection here and don;t understand the science, but could this be a different application and market for CFQDs - https://www.iqep.com/media/press-releases/2014/iqe-s-large-scale-mbe-technology-paves-the-way-for-next-generation-silicon-photonics/
The record date for the tender offer is 6pm on 9th April, results of the tender are 11th April, there's something else on 12th April and shares transferred/monies settled on 25th April.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/nanoco/news/rns/story/rgggzvr
Does this mean the 9th April (6pm) is the record date, after which the SP will likely make some sort of adjustment, but as the 'Accouncement of the results of the Tender Offer' is 11th April, will there be voltility due to the uncertainty?
BT saying that some (I'm guessing large) shareholders didn't want a return of capital, thay're likely to not take part in the tender offer and hold their shares.
We've discussed HOW the SP may react, but WHEN do people think it will happen, bearing in mind the small gap between the record date on 9th and results date on 11th?
Should be an interesting week.
I think 441 is a long term high, maybe 10 years or more. Fingers crossed we break that this week. All the forecasts are for copper to be just beginning a long term bull run.
Crow2 - I'm not trying to de-ramp here, but if you intend to take up the tender why not sell 100% today at 21p.
Here are a couple of illustrations based on the sale price:
100% of your shares @ 21p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 19.122p
Or if you can sell for 21.5p over the next couple days:
100% of your shares @ 21.5p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 19.935p
Or if you can sell for 21.75p over the next couple days:
100% of your shares @ 21p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 20.3415p
This way, you're sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy back in if the price drops post tender.
There’s currently about net £56m in cash in the business (after debt repayment) with 324,430,950 shares in issue, and a market cap of £68,950,000. That’s 17.26p per share for cash plus £12,950,000 for the business (4p per share).
Post tender and buy back, there should be around 212,000,000 (approx.) shares in issue, and £23m in cash in the business, which is 11p per share. Assume the same £13m ish value for the business that’s another 6p per share, so 17p total.
The main risk is if the share price rises immediately post tender, but assuming there are no further announcements, is that likely to happen? My feeling is it will be somewhere between 11p and 20p, can’t see it being higher (without further news).
Or if you can sell for 21.5p over the next couple days:
100% of your shares @ 21.5p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 19.935p
Or if you can sell for 21.75p over the next couple days:
100% of your shares @ 21p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 20.3415p
This way, you're sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy back in if the price drops post tender.
Trouble, when the SP was close to 16p with £30-40m being returned, that was a no brainer for me and I was buying (shame it was at the lower end and not a dividend).
I struggle to see the SP holding up after the tender unless there's more deal news (may be wrong of course).
This way I have cash ready to go if it drops below 20p (because I still believe).
Maybe high risk, but I don't think (hope) so. I sold out at just over 21p.
If the post tender price drops below 20p I'll be able to buy back for less and be better off (38.5% at 24p + 61.5% at 20p = similar to 100% at 21.1p ish now).
The risk of the price dropping into the teens post tender isn't nice, either way I don't like the uncertainty.
Good luck to everyone, I still very much believe in this medium term and hope to see you all again.
Bit of a brain dump having listened to the analyst call.
It's good to see some media coverage, Sky News and articles, and the analyst presentation sounds the most upbeat I can remember. They talk of further work packages this year, called out the benefits of CFQDs and the IP moat well, and mentioned mass adoption in mobiles in 2026 more than once. They're clearly working to develop a strong ongoing pipeline of new and better materials and mention that they'll apply for further patents around them.
But I still find it very difficult to see the share price going above 24p post tender offer, unless they have news in the pipeline or have an indication that major shareholders will buy more when the share capital is reduced to prop up/drive the SP. This leaves the lowly PI in a difficult position, and presents risk either way.
I was buying to average down as low as 15.69 late last year, and my average is now 27.5p. I've need invested for years and would have much preferred a divident because it levels the playing field between large and small investors.
My calcs suggest cash value of 12p after the buy back and there will clearly be some value added to for teh business on top of this, the recent 'media blitz' seems like a campaign to prop the SP up post tender. But on the call, the questions seemed to come from te hhouse brokers, I didn;t hear any big names on the call, but that doesn't mean big institutions aren't starting to look at this.
At the moment I'm thinking I'll take up the tender offer to bring down my holding and see what happens. I'll likely wait until next week though to see if anything happens before, possibly after the Investor call on Tues.