Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Here a post from a few days back as we’re likely to get more new investor eyes on here:
Here’s what’s compelling with Nanoco:
- Won/secured a settlement for patent infringement against the giant Samsung, earning Nanoco pre-tax $90m ($15 from a first payment, $75 due next month from a final payment).
- 10-12pps will be returned to shareholders in March 2024, exact method TBC but likely in whole or part a special dividend and/or buyback
- During Samsung litigation, Nanoco has some core patents challenged, tested and upheld at PTAB, confirming validity of patents around Nanoco's volume QD seeding process.
- Nanoco have deep partnerships with 2 global device component/chemical manufacturers partners (one is ST Micro and the other an Asian customer. Both of these have thousands of OEM customers.
- Nanoco's big opportunities are in QD Sensors and display. QD sensors have significant performance and safety benefits, see website presentations for more detail.
- Nanoco are uncovering and engaging with other possible patent infringers, which could result in additional settlements or licence partnerships.
- Nanoco's competition (QD manufacturers) are not profitable and some may have infringed Nanoco's patents. Following Nanoco's patent validation, many will now struggle to raise additional PE funding, one Nanosys were recently sold.
- Nanoco have cash for 4-5 years (after return to shareholders) but say they will be cash positive from 2025, possibly sooner, so there will be no further dilution.
- It's rumoured (and many announcements coincide/suggest) that Nanoco's QDs are present in sensors in the Apple Vision Pro, which is a significant because it's a huge validation of their tech and will likely result in a huge scaling revenue stream over time and increases the likelihood of Nanoco's tech getting into future iPhone models, which will be massive.
- Other than Samsung who were accused of partnering with and then stealing Nanoco's methods and knowhow (resulting in the $150m settlement and validation of Nanoco's IP at PTAB), QD adoption in devices has not really started to happen. This appears to now be changing, with actual devices in production using QDs. This should snowball significantly over coming months/years.
- Nanoco recently strengthened it's board with two incredibly experienced advisors with extensive contacts in this space, and experience scaling and selling tech businesses.
- Nanoco are completing build of a device lab, enabling them to actually show and demonstrate the tech to customers, instead of talking theoretically, which will de-risk and accelerate adoption.
- Nanoco is pretty much valued at cash or less than cash, with no value priced in for the core and fully funded business, in the early stages of a new technology adoption across a very wide range of use cases, including sensing, display, lighting, solar panels, medical devices and more.
- And finally, Directors are now buying (16.01
I wonder if it's too low profile right now. They did a great job with their comms to woo PIs last year, lots of presnetations, Q&As.
There's so much potential here with the leadership (eg Peter Levine who took Imperial Enery from 25p to an acquisition exit at £12.50 - a 5000% return), directors buying in huge amounts (Oliver Muscat buying £750k at just over £1 in March 2023), and their proposition (making Green Amonia/CAN, for a consistently low price and immediately selling it into a $multi-billion global market, a huge part of which is on their doorstep in S.America).
The problem is that it's a leap of faith until the economics are clear. This will all change when we can model revenue, break even and ROI, which we'll be able to do when they publish the FID and possible Offtake Agreements (which was obviously due in Q42023, and therefore will drop any day).
Until that happens, it's a leap of faith with feels like it's just you and me in the room kld1. Let's hope we both get rich.
I agree @kld1.
And this is what gives me more confidence, in March 2023:
"Olivier Mussat has today purchased 720,000 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a purchase price corresponding to the Company's most recent placing price of £1.062 per Ordinary Share off-market from Alpha Energies Invest GmbH ("Alpha"), a company owned wholly and beneficially by ATOME Chairman, Peter Levine. The purchased Ordinary Shares represent 2% of the issued share capital of the Company."
Always good when Directors put significant skin in the game, and my average is way lower.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/atome/news/rns/story/w03l88w
This was expected in Q42023, is overdue, should drop any day:
"NEXT STEPS (Paraguay | Phase 1 | Villeta Development - Latin America’s largest green ammonia-to-fertiliser facility by 2025
- FEED completion and Environmental Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) in Q4 2023
- Final Investment Decision by Q4 2023
- EPC contractor packages identified and tendered, construction to commence by the end of 2023"
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://wp-atome-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/09/23-10-11-ATOM-Investor-Presentation-vfin7-1.pdf
If they pay a dividend (I suspect they will) there will be an XD adjustment for sure, but I don't think they'll be valued at cash for much longer. We could see some volativity when the method of the return is announced and leading up to the event, but it will be newsflow over coming months that will drive the SP higher.
This is ridiculously cheap for a fully funded share that will be cash positive very soon, and could announce significant further deals.
This is a very exciting paragraph from Edison:
"Management has said that an order for around 100m sensor units could generate around £20m in revenue, which would equate to deployment across a high-volume handset range, especially if multiple sensors are included in the device. By way of context, the CMOS image sensor market is estimated to be worth $21.2bn growing to $30bn by 2030 (by Yole Research), with applications across almost any market involving image capture mobile devices, automotive, industrial, surveying, security and agriculture."
https://www.edisongroup.com/equity/nanoco-group/
"Nanoco’s current market cap of £61.6m remains broadly similar to the planned £33–40m shareholder return (mechanism to be determined) plus the £20m expected to be retained. This implies the market is assigning almost no value to Nanoco’s commercial opportunities, which have taken a meaningful step forward with last Friday’s announcement, its expanded manufacturing capability and its proven intellectual property in an important domain."
We're at a new 9 months high, and likely to climb further with the return to shareholder announcement in the next 4 weeks and further news re commercial orders, development work packages and possible news/speculation re Apple Vision Pro.
Looking forward to seeing the impact the new non-Execs make this year and next too.
It's been a long time coming. I've personally held this stock to some degree for 7-8 years. At last the commercialisation of QDs in sensors & displays seems to be about to take off. The more products use QDs (particularly high profile products like the Vision Pro), the more if will be trusted and the value demonstrated. Nanoco are the leaders in this field with tested and proven IP following the Samsung litigation. They have cash for 4-5 years, but will be cash positive by 2025 latest.
GLA, this should be a big year, but it's a long term hold for me (unless we're acquired of course).
All of their business will be long term supply deals to hardware/device manufacturers, with predictable revenue. Nanoco could be throwing off cash within 2-3 years, what do people think about them becoming divident paying within that timeframe?
Also...
- Other than Samsung who were accused of partnering with and then stealing Nanoco's methods and knowhow (resulting in the $150m settlement and validation of Nanoco's IP at PTAB), QD adoption in devices has not really started to happen. This appears to now be changing, with actual devices in production using QDs. This should snowball significantly over coming months/years.
- Nanoco recently strengthened it's board with two incredibly experienced advisors with extensive contacts in this space, and experience scaling and selling tech businesses.
- Nanoco are completing build of a device lab, enabling them to actually show and demonstrate the tech to customers, instead of talking theoretically, which will derisk and accelerate adoption.
- And the big one, Nanoco is pretty much valued at cash or less than cash, with no value priced in for the core and fully funded business, in the early stages of a new technology adoption across a very wide range of use cases, including sensing, display, lighting, solar panels, medical devices and more.
Very nice. Nanoco will get increasing amounts of coverage this year, particularly when the retur to shareholders is announced.
For any new investors, the compelling aspects re Nanoco are (please add if I miss anything):
- Won/secured a settlement tfor patent infringement against the giant Samsung, earning Nanoco pre-tax $90m ($15 from a first payment, $75 due next month from a final payment).
- 10-12pps will be returned to shareholders in March 2024, exact method TBC but likely in whole or part a special dividend and/or buyback
- During Samsung litigation, Nanoco has some core patents challenged, tested and upheld at PTAB, confirming validity of patents around Nanoco's volume QD seeding process.
- Nanoco have deep partnerships with 2 global device component/chemical manufacturers partners (one is ST Micro and the other an Asian customer. Both of these have thousands of OEM customers.
- Nanoco's big opportunities are in QD Sensors and display. QD sensors have significant performance and safety benefits, see website presentations for more detail.
- Nanoco are uncovering and engaging with other possible patent infringers, which could result in additional settlements or licence partnerships.
- Nanoco's competition (QD manufacturers) are not profitable and some may have infringed Nanoco's patents. Following Nanoco's patent validation, many will now struggle to raise additional PE funding, one Nanosys were recently sold.
- Nanoco expect to be cash positive from 2025, possibly sooner, so there will be no further dilution.
- It's rumoured (and many announcements coincide/suggest) that Nanoco's QDs are present in sensors in the Apple Vision Pro, whch is a significant because it's a huge validation of their tech and will likely result in a huge scaling revenue stream over time and increases the likelihood of Nanoco's tech getting into future iPhone models, which will be massive.
Did I miss anything?
They said they were expecting the FID by year end 2023, and during trading updates said interest was high and they were super confident based on discussions. News should drop any day now which should be a game changer and start the journey upwards to production/revenue by end of 2025 and beyond.
Suspect this will get a lot of intreest when the FID is announced.
I've been following this for a while now, I bought in because the proposition/model is compelling and makes a lot of sense.
Actually manufacturing an 'oven ready' CAN product with huge demand on the doorstep, where existing fertiliser has a significant carbon footprint and price volativity (Russia/Ukraine) is very compelling. Plus the Directors bought in in very large amounts at over £1. Plus they have a larger project to scale up further in the pipeline too.
It's a gamble because the economics are unclear. We have no idea of the finace & production costs.
This should all change if they announce a FID and offtake agreement where we can see payback periods, are reassured there will be little/no dilution and can model earnings.
Until this happens it remains a very speculative buy, but the price should turbo with positive announcements.
My hope is that this will pay back big time later this year, but with the potential scale up this will be a very long term hold for me.
I'm tempted to buy more at this price.
An 8 month high, no doubt driven by:
- return to shareholders of 10-12pps in March
- strong likelihood their QDs are in the Apple Vision Pro (and therefore likely to feature in future iPhone models
- sensor products from ST Micro using their QDs are finally being manufactured and evaluated for a wide range of applications by hundreds of OEMs
- company fully funded for years and soon to be profitable (likely 2025), so no risk of dilution.
Buckle up, this should be quite a year for Nanoco holders.
For any new shareholders, there’s a lot of nonsense on this board by if you read back over time you’ll find lots of useful research and background to support what an incredible investment this is.
Great find @amerloque. There are a few news releases which flag mass production in Q12024.
This is particularly exciting as likely contains Nanoco’s QDs - “STMicro VD55G1 is sampling now, but it’s still at the “preview” stage and pricing is not available. We won’t have to wait that long before seeing it integrated into modules and products as mass production is scheduled to start in March 2024.” Dec 12th 2023
https://www.cnx-software.com/2023/12/12/stmicro-vd55g1-small-low-power-global-shutter-i3c-camera-sensor-for-computer-vision/
https://www.vision-systems.com/cameras-accessories/image-sensors/article/14303051/stmicroelectronics-launching-new-global-shutter-sensor
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stmicroelectronics-reveals-global-shutter-image-140000542.html
So what newsflow are we expecting in Q1 as they've delivered on all 2023 objectives - first commercial order, appointment of an NED (actually hired two)?
Obviously how they intend to return 10-12PPS to shareholders in March should be announced in Jan/early Feb (personally hoping for a 12p dividend / 65% yield at todays price). This could spark an immediate spike and get more eyes on Nanoco.
Could we have details of more commercial orders and development work packages?
Having the ability to produce their own demonstration products as announced mid year will help to proove the technology and accelerate adoption.
QD Sensors have likely been evaluated over the past months and we could start to see more rapid adoption.
Hoping we'll end 2024 on a multiple of todays price.