Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

FINALLY received the following confirmation from Halifax Share Dealing re: March's ProBiotix Health dividend in specie distribution/ OIt's only taken Halifax 6 months!

OPTIBIOTIX HEALTH - Important Information
Dividend in Specie.

0.554673 of a New ProBiotix Health plc (ProBiotix) Ordinary share for each Existing OptiBiotix Health plc (OptiBiotix) share held on 24th March 2022.

Important Information & Other Key Dates:

On 17th March 2022, OptiBiotix announced its intention to distribute ProBiotix ordinary shares via a distribution in specie to the Company's shareholders.

The New ProBiotix shares were transferred to Global Prime Nominees Ltd on 13th June 2022, to be held in trust on behalf of shareholders for a period of 9 months from 31st March 2022 (Lock-up Period).

During the Lock-up Period, OptiBiotix Shareholders are not be permitted to transfer the legal or beneficial ownership of their New ProBiotix shares.

The New Probiotix shares are expected to be distributed to shareholders in the form of share certificates within 28 days from the end of the Lock-up Period, being 31st December 2022.

On receipt of the share certificate, we will take the necessary steps to deposit the certificate into the UK Settlement System (CREST). We do not know how long this process will take, however your account will be updated accordingly once this process is completed.

We will notify you in due course upon receipt of any further information from the Company.

Should you wish to find more information about the Dividend in Specie, please visit the OptiBiotix website, https://www.OptiBiotixdiagnostics.com

agricore - agreed - in fact I made that same point myself a while ago! Trouble is, TEK's destiny is now locked in much longer with that of Lucyd and the other companies it holds. Since these companies were, in effect, created by TEK, why on earth didn't it build a partial exit clause into any IPO agreement? In other words, say it would sell half its shareholding on IPO/trade sale, retaining the other half as a vote of confidence (and a way to hedge its bets in case any of the companies exceeded expectations long term). By not doing this, it has made any exit strategy far less transparent, far longer term and far riskier.

It’s often hard to know which are buys and which are sells. They are frequently misreported by the exchange. Ultimately the share price direction is all that counts.

dallo - I think the critical thing in today’s RNS was the repeated use of the term “SIGNIFICANT guidance.” To me “significant” is the most significant word here, implying MAJOR protocol changes being recommended by the FDA. As others have said, that may not be a bad thing longer term, as it could improve the chances of eventual Phase 3 success. But it implies significant delay & uncertainty in the interim. Which is why initial market reaction was negative (but not disastrously so - at least not yet!)

dallo - Judging by market reaction & RNS wording, I think that’s PRECISELY what the FDA signalled - i.e. process is dead in the water without significant changes to the protocols.

Goggles - don’t suppose you & Tim McCarthy are one & the same person? It’s just that you both have an uncanny knack of spinning the facts to suit your alternative reality.

Where's Goggles gone? Yes, that's right, the same Goggles who told us just two weeks ago: "nailed on! FDA approval is certain. There’s not a single reason to object to the trial." I did warn everyone at the time that he was talking out of his derriere, as nothing's ever nailed on. And now, it would seem, his nails have gone rusty & he has disappeared in a puff of smoke..

TopCatz - Hope you're right, but I can't agree with your last point "once these companies are IPO'd, if they make strides we are rewarded directly pro rata". That simply isn't true. TEK could simply trade at a greater discount to NAV, rather than reflecting the increased intrinsic value of its holdings. This happens all the time with other investment trusts, which oscillate between trading at a premium and a discount to NAV.

Thordon - nobody knows the odds. However knowledgeable they may seem, it’s all just guesswork. The loss it would represent if the FDA decision were negative depends entirely on the proportion of anyone’s investments that are in IMM.

We’re in danger of going round in circles here. I’ve made my point. Let’s see what happens. Here’s hoping TEK doesn’t turn out to be another Allied Minds.

Well yes that's one version of it. Unfortunately, there's more than one potential press release. So we'll just have to wait & see.

NOLUPUS - yes, always a good idea to keep a degree of balance on these boards. DJM1 - if anyone believed Tim right now, the share price wouldn't be stuck below 7p. £100K is chicken feed to these guys, given their inflated salaries. They probably felt their show of unity was a necessary evil in order to persuade anyone else to buy in. Not sure who you're implying is bitter? I for one am not and added recently just around the 6p mark. But despite the significant sum involved (by my standards) I still regard it as nothing more than a flutter.

Unfortunately the sectors it's in make volatility inevitable. At the moment this is largely working against holders. But the opposite was true a couple of years ago.

It's not doom & gloom. Just a hypothesis.

A fair bit of recent market pain has resulted from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So I think a fair bit of how markets look in 6-12 months' time will be down to how this war pans out (& hopefully ends). Just recently, Ukraine appears to have seized momentum somewhat. And global markets have reacted positively. But that could still all change again of course.

Fair enough if you think things are only going to get worse. Although in your case by doing that at current prices you're crystallising losses. So no chance of recovery. Unless you plan to wait & see if those rocky times materialise, buying back in lower down if they do?

cuvio & dallo - the scenario I envisaged is obviously hypothetical at this stage and is - I suspect - less than likely. But if the FDA were to impose conditions, Avion's investment in IMM would tank WHATEVER they did next. I'm not so sure Avion would simply write it off & walk away. That depends on how onerous any FDA conditions were. But given they're currently bankrolling IMM, they might decide to pull the plug on further bungs to IMM. That IMHO would lead to IMM rapidly running out of cash & going into liquidation. Its other drugs are too early stage still to be cash-generative any time soon. Yes, Avion would lose a bit of momentum with Lupozor. But not for long, given that IMM's already on life support (courtesy of Avion). And let's face it, if there are further bumps along the road, it's unlikely any other pharma companies would be interested in picking up the pieces with Lupozor. They weren't exactly falling over themselves to do so before Avion came to the rescue.

djm1 - depends how onerous any conditions might be. If any were imposed & sounded severe, Avion could take the view that IMM wouldn’t survive long enough at its current funding level. In which case, they might just want to walk away temporarily, wait a while, then pick up its assets on the cheap when it liquidated. Not saying this will happen (hope it doesn’t, given my investment here!). But if I were in Avion’s shoes, it would cross my mind.

McCarthy's "rubber stamp" FDA interpretation puzzles me too. Not that I pay much attention to him. Interesting to know what he'd do if the FDA turned this down (or - more likely in my book - imposed further conditions). Will he bring pressure to bear, in the hope Avion ploughs on regardless? I think not.

dallo - very charitable to say McCarthy has a credibility issue. Bit like Dominic Cummings’ eyesight issue?