Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Walp - high inflation has certainly impacted growth stocks disproportionately. And with hindsight, tech sector valuations got ahead of themselves during the pandemic. So it may take some time to revisit SMT's Nov 21 peaks. Assuming we ever do, of course! Whilst DorsetLSE is right that things never return to normal, that's mainly because they evolve. They're not CONSTANTLY getting worse! Personally, I wouldn't read too much into "tech fund managers defending (buying) innovative concerns in their conviction that things will turn." They're bound to say that. And in many cases, even after years of promising jam tomorrow whilst constantly under-performing, Fund Managers have an uncanny survival mechanism. Which is why I always like to see them investing plenty of their own money in the funds they manage. DorsetLSE - thanks for the Fundsmith link. I'm an investor there too, so will now plough my way through his dictionary of reasons (/excuses?) for 2022 under-performance!

oleric - bit early for an April fool?

Anyone know if anything specific (e.g. share tip) has prompted IQE's 10%+ rise in the past 5 days? Or is it based on the hope that January's TU & outlook statement will be positive?

maidit308 - I've never gone by any other name but lordloadsoflolly on ADVFN or LSE. If you're going to criticise, at least get your facts right.

skid35 - I'm not sure I agree about SOH's integrity, as I think he may genuinely feel Opti will eventually come good. But even if he believed all the sales forecasts he spouted, he's been far too slow at adjusting investors' expectations when it first became obvious they weren't going to materialise. And unfortunately that creates a longer term credibility issue. His latest podcast felt quite amateurish to me and at times sounded like a business for dummies course. Most of us already know what overheads are - and that they need to be tightly controlled, particularly with a start up. I also sensed he may now be rowing back on Holland & Barrett type deals - despite them being heralded as a major breakthrough at the time. I think the bottom line is he's been overstretched and hasn't achieved many of the company's objectives as a result. On the plus side, he has at least admitted this and restructured to address it. Time will tell whether things improve as a result.

maidit308 - one could equally ask "what's the point in constantly posting positive comments on a stock that, for now, consistently trends lower?" Sure, just as a stopped clock is right twice a day, you may eventually get a bounce and feel you can then say "told you so". But unless you ignored all your own buy recommendations on the way down, it probably won't have done you much good.

Within the next couple of weeks, we should hear how H&T’s been faring recently. I’m not expecting any major surprises, but the share price reaction is harder to call. It’s already risen a bit in anticipation of good times ahead. I sold a small portion of my holding at 503p, intending to buy back if the price fell below 450p. It hasn’t yet & I’m undecided whether to buy back now or hold fire & await the update. I’ll probably wait & see, which may mean I miss the opportunity to buy back lower. But I’ll still have a decent amount here and can’t help thinking current stock market buoyancy may not last, so am happy to hold slightly more in cash.

Sucafoods - phew! For a minute there, I thought you were actually trying to defend Tim McDim's track record.

elrico - IMHO that's being over-charitable to SOH. Sure, O'Hara can't control the speed with which partners develop & launch new products. But he will have been fully aware of delays creeping in and should have adjusted investors' expectations accordingly. I also think he misled investors about the potential many of these partners offered. None has come anywhere near generating the level of sales he forecast for the top tier. And many must have pretty much sold diddly squat to date, given Opti's lamentable turnover over all.

Brighty1 - true. But H1 22 operating LOSS was £7.4m (v. £1.9m previous year) and even after IQE's famous annual "adjustments", the reported loss after tax was over three times higher than in H1 21. I agree with you that Lemos at least seems to have a plan for growth. There again, so did Liz Truss! Seriously though, over the past 5 years, IQE has at best stood still and at worst gone backwards, particularly in profit terms. So it's high time they stopped the rot. I sense there's a slightly better chance they'll do this within the next year or two. But I certainly won't be putting another penny their way - regardless of how appealing the share price might appear - given the company's serial ability to disappoint.

Agneissearner - the words "integrity" & "the IMM Board" (notably Tim McC) don't belong in the same sentence. Allegedly.

I guess the two Tims will manage to struggle on with their £80-£90K honey-I-shrank-the-salaries. At least the new options are set well above IMM's current share price. But haven't they got shedloads of options already? In which case this is probably just meaningless window-dressing. And either way, should they be awarding themselves ANY more options after such a dire company performance this year?

Dontshootme - Well, all I can say is better to be starting that January '23, than January '22! I know £ cost averaging smooths the peaks & troughs to some extent. But it still helps if you first get in at a time when prices are low. Luckily I did that by investing most heavily back in 2016 when the share price was at the low £3 level. Of course, as Dorset LSE pointed out earlier today, SMT could still go (and stay) lower than its current level. But given your 20 year investment horizon, I'd be pretty surprised if it proved a disastrous decision long term.

DorsetLSE - you have a great Christmas. And try not to worry quite so much in 2023 - the darkest hour is just before the dawn!

DorsetLSE - there's a fundamental difference between BT & SMT (several in fact, but let's just concentrate on perhaps the most important one). BT is a single share. SMT is a broad basket of shares in multiple company sectors with vast geographical spread. That makes a HUGE difference to long term risk. I hear what you're saying about sticking with any investment that's already dropped significantly in price. And there are certainly dangers in emotional attachment & a belief that recent highs will soon be revisited. But ANY analogy between BT & SMT is deeply flawed IMHO. As for Tesla, you seem to have a real thing about them! Have you been to the US West Coast recently and seen which car brands are most common on the roads? Or visited Tesla HQ and seen for yourself their waiting list time for a new car? That might have you re-thinking. Sure, Tesla is highly valued still P/E-wise, despite its significant fall this year following Musk's ill-conceived foray into social media. And it's also true that the big established car brands are probably catching up and will almost certainly gain market share in that space. However, as Cassandra29 rightly says, "BG were very very early investors in (Tesla) long before all the dumb money piled in. What's more they took huge profits on their stake a couple of years ago."

Giancotti - I think you make some very valid points. IPOs sound great, yet TEK’s share price has plummeted this past 18 months. And you can’t blame all of that on falling global markets. Management needs to create shareholder value & have a clearer endgame on special divi distributions.. Otherwise they may as well morph into a charity. And I speak as a holder still (not a de-ramper!) because I still believe this is more likely than not to come good. Eventually,

CaptainPicard - maybe. Maybe not. Your guess is as good (or bad) as mine. Paultokyo29 - true. As is the flipside “over £8 if the buying trend starts & continues for a while”.

There were inflationary pressures building up pre-Ukraine, that's true. But the war there has made things FAR worse. Energy price inflation has been THE most significant driver of overall inflation rates. Particularly in Europe (notably Germany) which relied so heavily on Russian imports. That's had a huge knock on effect in the UK too. We've almost no gas storage facilities and rely heavily on imported gas (not so much from Russia, but global prices have soared because of Russia's actions).

Tom78 - I disagree. Ukraine is the main reason for high inflation & interest rates. They’re inextricably linked! DorsetLSE - like a lot of old wives’ tales, that adage simply doesn’t stack up in this instance. Had investors ploughed into pretty much any market this February, they’d be sitting on significant losses by now. And unless there’s a major rally sometime between now & when the conflict in Ukraine ends, they’ll still be down.

Ubik_Fresh - yup, though that's the thing with Ukraine. No-one sees things improving there. Until one day they do. At which point the markets will react very quickly - & very positively. So the key is to invest when everything looks at its most hopeless. Easier said than done of course. But my guess is you could do a lot worse than dip a toe in sometime between now & end Feb.