Member Info for LONGWAIT

"I would say that Mr Ashcroft could not have done a better job of putting people off investing in HUR."

I would say Longwait you're doing a pretty good job yourself...

(JAdam)

That's incredible!
The very first words of my post were:
'The article is a rehash of all the by-now-disproved doubts about HUR:'
Yesterday morning, at 11:14, I wrote:
Jamie Ashcroft is in a different category, 'balancing' his warnings about HUR with a few nice things, but his article could not have been much more unfavourable if it had been intended to put everyone off investing in HUR.
You would never guess from reading his article that HUR is on a forward P/E ratio of 2, a P/E ratio of 1 (based on expected production rates in 2022) and at a discount of about 80 percent to Edison's conservative estimate of HUR's risked NAV.

I've sparred with HUR derampers from UKOG and I've actually been accused in the past of being a ramper, because I have stuck up for HUR and its management on this forum for years, having been a member for five and a half years.
I note you have been here for little more than a year.
I suggest you save your put-downs for people who are really trying to put people off investing in HUR.

I tend to disbelieve conspiracy theories, Double, but yours do have merit.
The only thing I didn't get was why, after asserting that Ashcroft is getting paid, you asked 'who's paying whom?'
Presumably, Ashcroft is the whom.
Or maybe you think he's not the only whom.
I also think you have a point about RT being the target just as much as HUR.
Like you, I do think the sequence of events, including the Lemon Fool water cut nonsense, the hysteria on social media about it, the apparent private investor panic, and then - to crown it all (or as your neighbours might say, the 'pièce de résistance') - just after the RNS should have ended the panic, Ashcroft's article about how HUR - on a forward P/E ratio of 2(2020) and 1 (2022/2023) is overvalued and how incredibly risky an investment it is AFTER it has fallen by 66 percent - is too suspicious for words.

In reply to noosking's inquiry, I am taking the liberty of republishing my analysis of Ashcroft's article:

The article is a rehash of all the by-now-disproved doubts about HUR:

First, we don't 'know' whether FB works:

'Just like Sirius, Hurricane is sitting on a project of huge scale and ambition. Similarly, it is based on a partially unproven, or at least, debatable concept.'

Secondly, HUR will 'never' be able to raise the necessary finance:

'like Sirius, the project’s financing requirements are way outside the scope of a company that has only recently emerged out of the ‘small-cap bracket’.'

Thirdly, HUR's production is 'experimental':

'But, Lancaster is producing only from an ‘early production system’ which is essentially a pilot or long-term test production scheme which addresses only a small percentage of the potential.'

Fourthly, after falling by two-thirds in seven months, HUR's market capitalisation is 'obviously' way too high:

'In the market today, with a share price of around 22.68p, Hurricane is worth around to £450mln.

That would appear a handsome valuation for Hurricane merely as a ‘producer’, at least compared to some of the UK’s larger more established peers.'

'It has a big market value based on potential and unaddressed resources in the ground,'

Fifthly, HUR is compared unfavourably with debt-laden PMO and TLW!

Sixthly, HUR is obviously a 'very risky' company in which to invest:

'Setting aside the financing risk, there’s also notable exploration and executive risk.'

I would say that Mr Ashcroft could not have done a better job of putting people off investing in HUR.

I wonder why he did it.

The price could soar on a bid approach, due to speculation about a bidding war or due to an actual bidding war, and also because on being rejected, an initial bid is likely to be raised.

Unwelcome though a low bid might be, and although many shareholders would fear a sharp reversal in the event HUR remained independent, such a process would finally destroy all the attempts to denigrate HUR and convince shareholders that the shares are next to worthless.

Yes - you're right!

Both were for exactly one million shares at 0.65p, which suggests someone accumulating.

Actually, one of them was for 750,000 shares and someone sold 625,000 today.

What we really need is news of a deal in order to sustain any share price recovery.

It is of course appalling that the share price has fallen from 102p to about 1.7 p, although some think it was madness that it ever reached 100p.

As I am sure you have noticed, ps, assuming a NAV of close to 16p per share in the event that the deal goes ahead, the market is valuing SOU at a discount of close to 90 percent to the supposed NAV.

Is that not madness too?

I agree with you, SC, that it is ridiculous.
When I came online here today and saw a price of just above 22p, I went to buy some more and was surprised to be offered some at about 21.6p.
The price was already on its way back down.
God knows where the bottom will be, but the reaction, when it comes, could be violent.

I didn't know that, Tiptop.
Can you refer me to a graph online?
Google's is useless.

I've just seen your last post:

'Longwait, you've come here from the hurricane board why exactly?.. Then just another sad troll I'm afraid.'

You show just how intolerant you are when you ask 'why' I have 'come' from another board.
You really can't tolerate what you see as outsiders.
I've every right to comment, all the more so as I am a UKOG investor.
You've no right to call me derisory names, either.
If you had any sense of decency, you would apologise.

'Depends how you look at it, Potential 10 bagger in 6 months.'

(Steptoes)

All oil shares on AIM are potential ten-baggers, although predicting that it will happen within six months is absurd.
The share price has fallen by about 95 percent from its high.
It has halved since I bought it a few months ago, so a price of about 5.5p, which would have given me a five-bagger, is what you now call a ten-bagger.
The lower the price goes - and it has been making record lows almost daily recently - the more mouthwatering the imagined rises become.
I am hopeful that a good RNS will enable me to recover my losses.
If the shares still look good value, I will hold; if not, I will reinvest elsewhere.

'99% of us know the water issue will be resolved and as previous once 5 plus tankers leave per day then 1.5p to 2p quickly...'

(Tymers)

You don't know any of those things for a fact.
We are all waiting to hear by RNS what the true position is.
Moreover, your claim to represent the views of 99 percent of posters is reminiscent of claims made by leaders of totalitarian regimes, but anyone looking through today's posts can see that what you claim is not true.

'The trolls and the traders on here are bombarding you with negative drivel. AKA lies. As are various 'investment commentary' and blog sites on the web which are only offering click-bait. They are not your friends. Be in no doubt that all this affects the SP to some degree - they wouldn't be doing it otherwise! The main issue of course is the overhang of CLN's and issued shares but, despite many misleading posts here, these could be cleared in a week with some really good news.

What I can definitely tell you is that we aren't going to be needing equity based funding of £25m and more (3b shares Lol), as BackwardsBrailey and his band of numpty followers ludicrously claim. Unless maybe they think we plan to buy out BP?'

You are not in a position to tell other investors or those considering investing what definitely is or is not going to happen.
Nor are you entitled to dismiss anyone who disagrees with you as a 'troll' or 'trader.'
This forum is a place for people to exchange opinions and information, not to ridicule others for having different opinions from your own.

Just to remind you of what ps actually wrote, Ranger:

'The numbers are so eye-watering it is a crying shame that they have so thoroughly screwed-up the farmout process.'

I didn't notice that he questioned validity of the seismic data.

Whatever you say, Sir Cebo, but you may have noticed that the UKOG rampers have stopped - at least for now - posting here and it would seem to be due at least partly to my own efforts in standing up to them.

'......so what stops them then...... apart from a concerted buying spree by Pi's?'

That should stop them.
It may be that today's figures include the big after-hours trades, but today buys outnumber sells by nearly 5:2.
I would estimate that during the last three trading days, since the RNS, buys have outnumbered sells by 2:1.
Yet the SP is just off the bottom.
It seems more buying is required.
I bought some more myself today.

Update: you can no longer see Tymers' dishonest post on UKOG.

I reported it and it was swiftly deleted, together with my reply refuting it.

I think Double may have had a point last night when he suggested that the targeting of HUR may be connected with RT's unusual and remarkable ideas and achievements and certain persons wanting to bring him down.

It is true that PMO has been targeted by shorters, so much so that posters there have described it as nothing but a trader's share, but it was easy to point to real cause for concern, namely the billions of dollars of debt.

In HUR's case, it is more a case of character assassination and downright disinformation about water cuts.

Over on UKOG, they are talking about HUR being heavily in debt and facing bankruptcy, while making UKOG out to be its opposite.
Here's a post there from 25 minutes ago, about UKOG:

'With the sp bottomed out and good news expected more and more buys coming through expect to see daily rises from here on'

In fact, the UKOG share price has made yet another record low today and sells outnumber buys by more than 2-1.
We are dealing with some very nasty people, who are prepared to tell outright lies.
Jamie Ashcroft is in a different category, 'balancing' his warnings about HUR with a few nice things, but his article could not have been much more unfavourable if it had been intended to put everyone off investing in HUR.
You would never guess from reading his article that HUR is on a forward P/E ratio of 2, a P/E ratio of 1 (based on expected production rates in 2022) and at a discount of about 80 percent to Edison's conservative estimate of HUR's risked NAV.

RE: Oil price rebound
Today 00:54

I noticed some comments about the 'after hours' share trades.
I just noticed that the two million shares buy was for 22.61p , the one million buy for 22.92p, and the 3,715,000 buy for 21.64p - all at prices above the closing price - in the first two cases, more than 1p above it.

I noticed some comments about the 'after hours' share trades.
I just noticed that the two million shares buy was for 22.61p , the one million buy for 22.92p, and the 3,715,000 buy for 21.64p - all at prices above the closing price - in the first two cases, more than 1p above it.