Member Info for LONGWAIT

Correction:

'... leaving HUR shares on a P/E ratio of 0.9'

The shares would be at a discount of 70 percent to cash (assuming it hasn't been used).
Imagine what the discount to NAV would be in 2023, bearing in mind that it is currently 83 percent (before news of the LC delay)!

'HUR get the whole 40k bpd from 2022 Q1.'

(Genghis)

I wasn't sure whether that would include Lincoln, but it seems it wouldn't and that the 40k is for Lancaster alone.
Is that correct?

If it happens in the first quarter of 2022 and we reach perhaps 30k bopd some time next year, then I estimate something like 65p per share in cumulative earnings by the end of 2023, leaving HUR shares on a P/E ratio of less than 0.3.

Some people have been saying that we should be on a P/E ratio of 25, but I can't see the MMs allowing a SP of 1625p in 2023.

The funny thing is that someone always retorts that HUR is considered an explorer, not a producer, and is therefore not entitled to a producer's rating, yet Ashcroft says HUR was overvalued as a producer at 22.68p!

It's amazing how justifications for HUR's apparently ever-decreasing share price can be found.

If you think this is bad, take a look at HUR, which is now a producer on a prospective P/E of less than two (and a P/E ratio of less than one, based on estimated production figures for 2022) and the price has fallen 73 percent SINCE it started producing!

I am intending to buy more JOG shares and top slice when it gets back to 240p, leaving me with something like my present holding but at a much lower average.

Wish I had done something like that with HUR!

Well, Albi, whether the price manipulation involves shorting or not, I am saying that this slump has not been orchestrated by the likes of Marshall Wace.
The registered shorts total 1.73 percent, and looking at the shorting history - someone kindly provided the link

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B580MF54/

- I couldn't see a correlation between the sizes of the total shorts and the share price movements.
The MMs obviously have the means to do it and they are therefore the prime suspects.
I mentioned JOG because although it's much clearer there what is causing the gyrations, as with HUR while Griffiths has been buying and selling, the company's assets haven't gone anywhere.
In answer to Suresh's inquiry, I don't give investment advice and with my losses, I'm possibly not the best person to give advice on how to make money.
What I can say is that this share is seriously undervalued.
I bought some more a few minutes ago at just under 18p.
I never imagined price would ever go this low after First Oil, but I'm still learning about AIM.

I had a horrible premonition just before the HUR page appeared on my screen today that the price would be down 4p at 17p
And it was.
When I saw there had been an RNS, my first thought was: can it really be that the doomsters were right and that the management has withheld something from us?
Could it be that the planned production increase wouldn't happen after all, or that the water cut had increased dramatically, or the AM had vanished without trace?
When I read that it is about a problem with LC, I was disappointed.
On reflection, however, I could see that it is possible that LC will contribute to production eventually and, even if it doesn't, production from Lancaster is unaffected by the news.
My investment in HUR really has turned into a nightmare, as it is by far my biggest investment and position, and I notice the presence of some posters, gloating over the misfortune of those of us who bought into the HUR story.
I am planning to buy more because the shares are now on a prospective P/E ratio of one point something and there is every reason to expect earnings to rise still further.
It seems that Richard Griffiths is still reducing his holding in JOG, where he had taken a 9.4 percent stake, helping to drive the price up from 57p to 240p.
His selling has helped drive the price back down to 105p.
Like HUR, it's very cheap, but isn't yet producing oil.
I don't believe the HUR share price slump has been orchestrated by shorters.
I believe it is the MMs who are behind it.
I have no idea when or at what level this slump will end, but then one never does.
I know only that this share is massively-undervalued and that the more undervalued it becomes, the more we shall see derogatory comments about the company.

Thanks, Double, but I don't think it was I who posted the link to the Rodgers article.

I agree with you that it is wholly inappropriate to make a comparison between HUR and any failed or failing company.
I also agree with you that this whole mysterious affair seems to be just as much about RT, or possibly even more so, as about HUR.
I imagine that if an oil-oriented Martian were to arrive and get up-to-date on HUR, he would be puzzled as to why it is that the doubts about FB and HUR seem to have intensified the more RT and HUR have achieved.
He might also wonder why the hysteria about (alleged) increasing water cuts seems to increase in proportion to the increase in oil production.
Unfortunately, as the share prices of companies that fail collapse with them, many people think that a slumping share price means a company must be failing and, consequently, they are receptive to any explanation, especially if accompanied by scientific-looking diagrams and written by an 'expert.'
There is not much we can do, other than sit - or sweat - this out.
The doomsters will always be able to scare people by saying that the oil is about to run out, but even Mr Rodgers may soon have to admit that HUR actually IS a profitable company.

I think you've underestimated the value to PVR, ps: it would be about 105p per share!

But, if the same again were discovered at deeper levels, and could be extracted, then you can double that figure to 210p per share.

I agree with you that the important thing is to get a deal done, but even if a major would really like to do a deal, but would like to take advantage of PVR's desperate circumstances, I doubt that they would demand 90 percent.

You called me a liar in your post timed at 17:46 yesterday on LSE UKOG, Tymers.

I reported your post and it has been removed.

If you intend to post comments here in future, I suggest you exercise some self-control.

'How will the share price react on the next milestone of 20k bopd and the 30k ?'

I'm glad you asked that, because the rise to 20k bopd is a 50 percent increase and to 30k bopd a 100 percent increase.
So far, the 50 percent increase has been greeted by a five percent increase in the share price.

I actually suggested keeping 25 percent in a deal, which would give a major half as much again as APEC were offered.

If they could then get 346 mmboe out, then assuming CAPEX of $30 pb (off the top of my head) and current depressed oil prices, that would be worth about 260p per share before tax to PVR, provided it retained its interest.

Returning to the subject of 'after-hours' trades, so far today they total more than two million buys and not a single 'sell.'

Someone mentioned the excitement at SOU, which has risen 50 percent since lunchtime.
Of course, that's not so difficult when a share price has fallen by 98 percent!
I'm NOT making any comparison, but strange things happen when the 'market' becomes convinced that a share is done for and will never rally.
I won't be surprised if one of these days, HUR rises 50 percent in one day.

I agree with you that the fact that I have been here far longer than you does not automatically mean I am right, and also that any argument should be judged on its merits.

But the fact that I have been here for five and a half years does mean that people by now know what I think about this company!

Ja, Dunkler Ritter zwanzig zwanzig!

I was responding to Genghis' review of Rodgers' article 18 minutes before mine, which he ended with the following comment:

'Despite the positive headline, it seems like another knocking article to me.'

My response began:

'My favourite section of the article is:'
followed by a quotation from Rodgers' article.

I then gave my opinion of what he had written:
'He gives the impression that HUR has been wasting shareholders' money, has been keeping them waiting unduly long, is being closely watched to see whether it is capable of making a profit, and is the kind of share you would buy as an alternative to a lottery ticket.

Jamie Ashcroft must be envious of Rodgers' way with words.'

It is not in my nature to make a frontal assault on someone or someone's words.
Sarcasm and ridicule are, I believe, more effective.

If a person says, ''He gives the impression that HUR has been wasting shareholders' money...'
it should be obvious that that person does not think that HUR has been doing anything of the kind.

When I said it was my 'favourite' section of the article, I was being sarcastic.
Since I had already criticised Ashcroft's article, it should be obvious that when I wrote, 'Jamie Ashcroft must be envious of Rodgers' way with words' I meant that I disapproved of Rodgers' article, as I did of Ashcroft's.

I am really amazed that my use of irony has caused so much fuss.

'IMO you are either playing both sides or you need to re-read, rethink or reword before posting, either that or admit you sold and want back in cheaper.'
(JAdam)

A poster on UKOG yesterday accused me of being a liar and claimed I had misrepresented what he had written - which I had not.
I reported his post and it has been removed by the administrators.
If you continue to accuse me of 'playing both sides' and pretending to be a HUR investor, I'll report you too.
As I pointed out last time you accused me of trying to put people off investing in HUR, you've been on LSE for little more than a year, whereas I've been posting regularly on HUR for five and a half years.
As far as I can remember, during that time you are the only person who has ever accused me of trying to put people off investing in HUR.
Anyone who is familiar with my style of writing knows that I am in the habit of quoting at length from any article of which I am critical and then saying what I think of it.
I did once, on another forum, quote from Mein Kampf, in order to discredit Hitler's ideas, but no-one used the fact that I quoted from it as a ground for accusing me of being a Nazi!

Do you think a major would accept 90 percent?

I know that if I were in their position, I would - because it would be a bargain.

But with majors pulling out of Avalon here and a prospect of EOG's, as well as the delay at South Dunquin, it seems as though no one wants to get involved in anything off Ireland.

Reading through Joey's posts, they reminded me of the way a market stall vendor tries to promote his wares, and then I read:
'Today's the day!'
That was 300 days ago.
I'm surprised LSE haven't closed his account.

Here are some selections from his posts:

06 Oct 2019 16:26
I can see a spike to 7/8p

Prediction for SP end of this week?16 Sep 2019 20:32
2/3p if rig shows up!

RE: Game Changer!!!11 Sep 2019 22:43
Not long now, soon be 10p!

09 Sep 2019 09:29
If the heards arriving... This will see another super rise! I would say 5-7p more likely!

06 Sep 2019 10:46
We will be millionaires! ;)

Exciting times!04 Sep 2019 10:47
Lots to look forward to! Soon be 2p+ heading to 10p

31 Aug 2019 16:32
Everything is in hand I would say... Buy as many shares as you can whilst they are under 10p.

30 Aug 2019 21:09
This is going to rocket! Hence all the nasty shorters appearing online.

RE: RE: RE: UKOG price prediction 01/11/2019 (Closing 16.30pm)23 Aug 2019 09:22
Haha, this will be 5/6p plus!

RE: RE: RE: UKOG price prediction 01/11/2019 (Closing 16.30pm)22 Aug 2019 17:29
Not ramping at all, I'm expecting it to be 6p+ ;)

[Joey predicts a rise of 500 percent in 10 weeks, yet denies he is ramping]

Naughty tree shake!12 Aug 2019 16:09
Don't let them have you're shares! 11p+ coming!

Time to buy!16 May 2019 20:26
It's at the bottom fokes, only up from here ;)

[Joey trying to convince readers that the price can only rise.
Nine months later, it's down by 39 percent ]

Lots of crying shorts on twitter...07 May 2019 10:56
Rig be on its way, 3/4p easy!

Today's the day!11 Apr 2019 00:01
Good luck all fellow UKOG holders... I'm expecting alot of good news!

My favourite section of the article is:

'For its part, Hurricane has burned through hundreds of millions in cash developing its Lancaster field while investors have been waiting ever-patiently to see results. Since the turn of 2020, the share price has fallen 34%, so it represents the kind of low-priced gleaming lottery ticket dream that investors new and old cannot help themselves but buy.
Hurricane has not turned a profit ... The oil industry is watching very, very closely. '

He gives the impression that HUR has been wasting shareholders' money, has been keeping them waiting unduly long, is being closely watched to see whether it is capable of making a profit, and is the kind of share you would buy as an alternative to a lottery ticket.

Jamie Ashcroft must be envious of Rodgers' way with words.

About that 'after hours' trade of nearly three million shares, JB: if you aggregate the 'after hours' trades, they total more than four million shares purchased.