Member Info for LONGWAIT

Hope it's not too late to revive your wife, Daltry.
If you can possibly revive her, could you please explain to her that you completely misinterpreted my 'advice' on human sacrifice.

'Just bizarre that Barclays, Ashcroft et al did not see this before first oil but do after 8 off takes. It seems analysts respond to share price as opposed to research and evidence.'

I think that's more or less the point I have repeatedly been making - and I gave the example of Goldman Sachs belatedly noticing that the oil supply had 'rebalanced' itself, but only after the oil price had recovered strongly after falling to the 20s.
This interpretation of reality has more to do with the thinking of primitive people than that of people living in the twenty-first century.
People used to sacrifice their first-born sons because they thought the gods were angry with them and that they must have done something wrong.
The scribblers seem to think that HUR must have done something wrong for it to have such a lowly share price.

It hasn't.

I've seen that recording, DOD, and no - I don't believe you!

RT was visibility irritated by the line of questioning - as many of us are irritated by TLF's writings on water cuts - but he didn't look at all worried.

He seemed to resent being asked to elaborate when he had already referred the questioner to the relevant CPR.
He then said he couldn't answer the specific follow-up question asked because he didn't yet have enough information.
I can't see any cause for concern.

You know, PTS, I remember four or five years ago, a poster getting anxious and wanting to buy because he was afraid that the price would double overnight on announcement of good news.
I didn't feel that way and think that, generally, buying for that reason doesn't work out well.
But It just shows you what the market (manipulators) have done to investor confidence.
At that time, the company was still trying to find its way, years away from production, with most posters thinking it would not become a producer but would have to find a major to do the producing.
It HAS become a producer, yet Ashcroft says its future is in the hands of financiers and Hosie says it's not a stable producer.
I don't know whether the price has bottomed yet, but it looks as though more and more people are doubting whether the SP can stay below 15 p for long and if no-one any longer believes it can, then I suppose it won't, in which case it will be ready to take off, and by all means wait for the CMD before topping up.

Some people have been saying that the SP was obviously overvalued or 'toppy' when it was in the 60s.
A few years ago, Richard Bernstein topped up at about 52p.
I know he's not very popular here, but why would he have bought near the top if he had thought it was getting close to being toppy?
He actually said at the time that he thought the shares were cheap.
One director bought 375,000 shares in the 40s.
Other directors have bought in the high 30s.
When the price sails through the 70s, will people still say that it was toppy in the 60s?

"Salah and Sohbi are very exciting wells for the Company with the potential to more than double the reserves to be processed through the South Disouq gas processing facilities. We now have three rigs drilling simultaneously in Egypt and Morocco and I look forward to providing further updates on these campaigns in due course."

'I can't quite understand ... why the SP is so low.'

You're not the only one, MM!

Sorry, I just scrolled down and saw your figure on JOG's website.

Thanks for the link, DU.

By 'estimate,' I meant the calculation you did, based on JOG's published figures.

I did my own calculation / estimate and arrived at £52 per share, not £42 per share.

Could you explain how you arrived at £42.16 ?

As I noted before, Genghis, if there is a low bid, although I hope it fails, it would have to be much higher than the current share price and could go even higher on a raised offer or competing bid.

That would finally put to rest Jamie Ashcroft's claim that the shares were overvalued at 22p and every claim made that the SP was low because of something wrong with the 'model' or 'concept,' as well as all the nonsense about water cuts.

It was a relief to see the SP bounce off today's low of 15.06p, which suggests support at 15p.

If your theory is correct, CS, why are people still selling?
There was a sale of 75,000 shares about 25 minutes ago.
What is the point of selling now?

I recall that following a terror attack - possibly 9/11 - P & O shares fell by 50 percent in one week.
The explanation given was that no-one would ever go on a cruise again.
Two weeks later, the share price had recovered completely.

I note that during the recent decline in share prices in the oil sector, some people have been saying that we soon won't be using oil any more.

The RNS did not deny that HUR shares had been shorted, so it is quite clear that the BOD didn't lie on that point, but would it be normal for an RNS to mention shorting?

'we are not aware of any subsurface, operational or commercial reasons that would have caused such decline...'

The thing is that the BOD's statement implies that a share price decline could be caused by a leak, but that - and it has to be an opinion - nothing that would have caused such a big fall in the share price had actually occurred.

It didn't deny that a leak about something (e.g. LC) could have caused a share price decline, but it did deny that such a large share price fall could have been caused by it.

I think the RNS was carefully worded and similar statements have been made by other companies following wild market moves.

So, according to your estimate, DU, a fifty percent farmout would value JOG's share at 2100 p per share.

You must have noticed that, whatever quantities RG had been offloading, he hasn't for the last two trading days.

Has he done this previously?

By the way, I've just added to my own holding.

'The appraisal programme is being designed to directly address these reservoir uncertainties...'
Presumably, to address uncertainties expressed by potential farminees - which weren't expressed by APEC?

Is your estimate of €0.50 per share the value to PVR before the major takes its share?

'several additional companies not included within the initial process have expressed interest in the gas potential' does suggest that some companies think gas could be extracted without extracting the oil, which I don't think I have heard of before.

I am hoping that the fact that funding has not yet been arranged means they have more than one available option, rather than that they are struggling to arrange it.

As you say, ps, there is still uncertainty about how or whether Barryroe will be developed, but one thing is clear: TOR wasn't making it up when he said companies were still interested.

No, but it does mean a better chance of getting Barryroe developed.

If $230 (+10) million worth of CBs are converted at $0.52 per share, that makes another 460 m shares, enlarging the total to 2.453 billion, which means my EPS estimates would have to be revised (unless the SP obliges).

E.g. EPS of 20p based on 2 bn shares would become 16.3 p, which is not so impressive, although slightly above the present SP.

If the CBs are indeed converted, what happens about the 7.5 percent interest?

Thanks, JB

Thanks for your detailed reply, Double.

By reading between the lines, I deduce that you are still physically - as well as financially - intact, in spite of the dip below 15p.

I agree entirely with you about the BB.
In fact, I was tempted to write a comment a few hours ago about how it has deteriorated, but what is the point of stating the obvious?

Day before yesterday, I was again accused of being a liar - by a visiting poster - who, when I objected, denied having called me a liar, then called me a liar again, and then claimed that I have previously been banned.
Of course, the administrators removed the defamatory posts, but he is a 'premium' member, so no chance of a ban there.
'never have I seen anything like this' is almost word-for-word what our ex-financial adviser said the other day about HUR's SP.
I have estimated that HUR will earn something like 80p per share over the next five years, based on 20 kbopd, rising to 40 kbopd in 2022.
How on earth can anyone seriously suggest that it is overvalued at 16 p?
I don't blame you at all for staying away, but hope we can continue to have the benefit of your opinion on technical matters from time to time.
All the best.
LW

'[RT's] Time as CEO and praising himself are at an end.'

(SunSet1)

I wouldn't have responded to your outrageous remark, had I not noticed that you have since written on SOU:

'Mr James Parsons should be sent to trial and jailed if found guilty.'

It seems you are targeting the directors (or ex-directors) of companies whose share prices have slumped.

I suggest you attach more importance to the true state of a company and less to its share price when selecting your targets.

Value investors, upon learning that a stock is on a price earnings ratio of one, has stable income and low debt, would be seriously considering investing in the company, not getting its CEO fired.

It was such a 'small time company' that no-one expected a private investor to take a 9.4 percent stake in it, either.
Either it was his day off today or he has decided to stop selling.
If it's the latter, we may have reached the bottom.