Member Info for LONGWAIT

'it's too much of a leap for me to simply assume everything goes right and production hits 40k in 2022.'

{WWN)

I assume everything is going right unless and until I hear otherwise.
We haven't heard that production was halted because there was no oil left; that BP won't buy any more oil from HUR because DSPP examined the barrels on their behalf and found them to be full of water; we haven't heard that the planned 50 percent increase in production has not taken place; we haven't heard that the EPS has been abandoned because it couldn't last nine months.

'Edison forecast 11.3 cents EPS for 2021 or about 8.5p.'

(WWN)

Is that based on 20 kbopd?
My estimate of 15p EPS is based on an estimated 40 kbopd in 2022/3

Yes, Daltry.
I think investors' loss of confidence is a consequence of share price collapses rather than a cause of them.
As you say, somehow the price has been manipulated down and then we get all the rationalisations, which we never used to hear, such as 'too many shares.'
According to some posters, you couldn't justify a rising share price because of the enlarged share capital.
Yet it used to be unheard of for a successful growth company's shares to stand still.
HUR's have lost about two-thirds since flotation, and yet we're hearing it's 'probably' undervalued now.

What makes you think I'm upset when I receive polite replies (unlike on some other share BBs)?
Of course, I meant get the oil out of the ground and the project off the ground.
But I don't mind which way they do it, provided they get a move on.
If they announce a deal - even if only for the gas - I will buy more shares.
Chances are they will still be ridiculously cheap compared with the assets.

'The price has probably under shot fair value IMHO, due to sentiment - but in those cases the bottom is always difficult to judge.'

I agree that it's difficult to figure out where the bottom is; in fact, you can only figure it out much later.

I don't agree with your use of 'probably'.
The price was last at this level four years ago; consider where the company was then.

The company is on course to earn about 15p per share p.a. from 2022.
On a modest prospective P/E ratio of 10, it would be 150p.
I believe in former times, it would have been on such a rating, but something strange has happened: there has been an unprecedented loss of confidence.
I've been following the market for a long time and I don't think this existed until the last few years.
The fact that someone can say he 'thinks' the SP has 'probably undershot fair value' when it's on a prospective P/E ratio of about one (which used to be unheard-of) and at a discount of 87 percent to NAV proves my point.

That means ninety percent probability of 456 mboe recoverable, in addition to 346 mboe recoverable at a higher level.
If all of that were produced, the income would be huge.
If they could sort out something with the gas, maybe the bigger project would follow.
They just have to get this off the ground.

We believe the price has been manipulated downwards and that the fact that scare stories have appeared online - and factually-questionable articles written by financial journalists too - seems to be beyond coincidence.

I see you haven't had much luck yourself:

SXX
09 Aug 2019 14:55
Price: 9.40
Will finish up today, no brainer at this price, not for the faint hearted though, hold your nerve and you will be handsomely rewarded. IMO
[6 months later, the price is 5.20 p]

INDV
22 Feb 2019 10:34
107.00
Very volatile of late, would agree with previous poster - Materially mispriced
target still 150p
[a year later, the price is 38.25 p]

CARD
22 Jan 2018 20:32
Price: 200.00
Bought in here @ 217p and 225p, no worries here for me will buy more IF it goes to 180p
[13 months later, the share price is 83.8 p]

HUR is now a profitable company, Worzel.

'The cash was expected to be used [on] 3 more drills on the GWA'

I thought one of the ideas behind the farm-out was that HUR wouldn't need to use cash on drills in the GWA.

I think some will be used to increase production from Lancaster, and the rest will be saved for a rainy day.

Yes, you're right, WWN: the fall since 29 November is only about £630 m and since just before First Oil, about £960 m.

'the fall from 50p+ is entirely justified.'

I disagree and I'm sure I am not alone!

' I think HUR is now under-valued'

I think that's an under-statement!

'Further incremental resource potential has also been identified in logged hydrocarbon bearing intervals within stacked Lower Wealden and Purbeckian sandstones, which the Company estimates contain total associated P90, P50 & P10 in place oil resources of 456 MMBO, 778 MMBO and 1,165 MMBO, respectively.'

Are these the two deeper levels?

TSD announced on 20 January 2020 that he had just bought shares in HUR at 25p.
I cannot see a post from him since then in which he says he sold them.
Another Lemon Fool?

'Providence Resources is assessing the potential for a carbon neutral gas development as an option for the Barryroe field.'

Doesn't that mean a separate gas extraction project?

Posted on SOLG:

The sooner this falls to 11p
04 Feb 2020 22:36

'The sooner i can buy some shares and we can all be friends....'

SOLG is 22.4 p, double TSD's target.
Looks like he won't be finding any friends there, either.

Are we talking about a project to extract just gas - no oil?

If their prediction came true, then 11 years after flotation, HUR shares would be down!

By then, accumulated earnings per share could be about 65p, annual earnings could be 15-20p per share, even after bond conversion, and NAV could be pounds.

I agree with you, JAdam.
The media wasn't always like this.
The Daily Express predicted, following the infamous Munich Agreement of 1938, that there would be no war in Europe in 1938 or 1939.
Nowadays, it displays 'shock' horror headlines every day.
The television coverage of 9/11 was, in my opinion, disgraceful, with the recording of the Twin Towers set to music.
One newspaper published an article suggesting that the War on Terror could be worse than the Second World War.
The media has lost touch with reality.

Yes, WWN.
I suggest we show leniency to rampers, in these circumstances.
An investor in JOG, which was trading unchanged at 103-106 this morning, was so indiscreet as to say that he wouldn't mind a share price of 500p in the next 12 months.
Up popped TSD to predict 50p.
Bear in mind that the NAV is 4216p and also that when TSD predicted 'low 30s' last year, the price went to 240.
As PTS implied, TSD obviously has a sadistic streak and ramping could provide some light relief.

I remember one of the directors saying the deal was worth xp per share - I think 17p - which when I adjusted it for the last placing, became just under 16p per share, so that's close to your estimate.

And yet, my impression is that people think SOU shares shouldn't be touched with a barge pole.