Member Info for LONGWAIT

'LONGWAIT - are you not a believer in the 5p in 5 months?'

(Insidious)

You might as well ask me whether I believe in Karma, life after death, or the divinity of Jesus.

We are supposed to be dealing in facts - like prospective earnings and P/E ratios and fair value - not pie-in-the-sky.

I have now made the point twice that based on Contrarian Investor's analysis, Free-Money's prediction implies a P/E of 70.
I would be quite happy to read a contrary, reasoned view, with calculations, but it just doesn't come.
Instead, we get the believers' catechism, and the unbeliever is asked - with an air of disbelief - whether it can really be true that he DOESN'T believe.
Those who don't believe are categorized as 'trolls' with an 'agenda' and cast out into the darkness.

'2p very soon, possible 5p in 5 months.'
(Insidious)

'2p very soon, possible 5p in 5 months. Good luck all holders.'
(Steptoes)

'Was 18p not long ago, should fly over 5p this week. Lots of news due and huge huge potential there.'
(Welsh_man)

The third of the above quotes was spam.

The other two were not, but are so lacking in any real content, that they might just as well have been.

'2p very soon, possible 5p in 5 months.'
(Insidious)

'2p very soon, possible 5p in 5 months. Good luck all holders.'
(Steptoes)

'Was 18p not long ago, should fly over 5p this week. Lots of news due and huge huge potential there.'
(Welsh_man)

The third of the above quotes was spam.

The other two were not, but are so lacking in any real content, that they might just have well have been.

Did you mean,

'
'SOU will still need to pay for a share of some of the works and hence why at the very least, I expect there to be further dilution / fund raising.'

Incorrect. Read the RNSs.
' ?

'So based on contrarian based on 1000 bopd ukog is at 2.25 plus nearly 4 times fridays close sp'

(Tymers)

I have no idea what that sentence means.
I can say, however, that based on Contrarian Investor's estimate of 0.5p EPS, based on 3,500 bopd, Free-Money's prediction of a 10p SP and 1,000 bopd implies a P/E ratio of 70.

I don't know where you get a SP of 2.25p, but it implies a P/E ratio of 15.75.
What makes you think that is 'very conservative'?

'ContarianInvestor, who is just another PI like anyone else, but with an amateur blog, was RAMPING this to 7p, based on no understanding of what he was saying.'

He suggested a price of 7p, with a P/E ratio of 14, based on 3,500 bopd.
And you call that ramping?
Free-Money is predicting 10p, based on just 1,000 bopd.
Assuming earnings of 0.5p per share on 3,500 bopd, that implies a P/E ratio of 70.
You are welcome to disagree and offer your own calculations, but just saying to someone 'what are you on about ?' is rather crude and obviously not an adequate response by any standards.

If I may alter your statement slightly, Haggis:

BP wouldn't be buying millions of barrels from HUR if THEY had any concerns about a water cut.

That's your response?

If someone disagrees with you, he's a 'troll' with an 'agenda', and if you are presented with a reasoned analysis, it's 'garbage.'

This forum is just an exercise in verbal abuse.

That's your repose?

If someone disagrees with you, he's a 'troll' with an 'agenda', and if you are presented with a reasoned analysis, it's 'garbage.'

This forum is just an exercise in verbal abuse.

'At a share price of 7p, the price/earnings ratio (p/e) is only 14 (3500 bopd)'

https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/9/20/what-is-ukog-really-worth

In his analysis, Contrarian Investor estimated earnings per share of 0.5p, bases on 3,500 bopd.

You are predicting a price of 10p, based on 1,000 bopd, which implies - assuming CI's estimates are correct - a P/E ratio of 70.

Don't you think that's rather high?

'10p in February

On confirmation of 1000 bopd.'

(Free-Money)

If this is so obvious, why has there not been a single response to my post yesterday evening, in which I quoted from an analysis by Contrarian Investor, from last September, and concluded:

'The shares have roughly halved since then, and it seems there have been delays too.
In the light of what has happened since, what adjustments should be made to his estimated earnings of 0.5p per share? '

'No CGT on A.I.M. currently.
Also safe from I.H.T. (currently).
:)'

(Skwizz)

UK Tax Benefits Guide To Investing On AIM (2019)
On the whole, AIM shares are treated just the same as those on the Main Market, in that income generated through dividends is taxable, and gains are subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

https://aim-watch.com/articles/aim-tax-benefits/'

I noticed that too, but I'm not sure much importance can be attached to such statistics.
For example, after a poster here kindly recommended SQZ at 23p, it soared to 140p twice, but no directors bought nor sold any shares, except for a director buying some for 109.50p in December 2018 - rather late!

On the other hand, I recall Keith Bush and other directors buying plenty of shares at what could now be considered outrageously-high prices in Northern Petroleum, which became Cabot Energy, whose shares became practically worthless.

I also recall that when a shareholder / poster was concerned about the weakness of the SOU share price, and informed James Parsons, the latter responded by generously buying 50,000 shares at 47p.
They are now 1.7p.

It would seem that directors' buying of their own companies' shares is not a reason to have confidence in either the directors or their companies!

Yes - I know, Double.
I did think Indy was crediting the shorters with being rather slower off the mark than they actually are.
By now, they must be well-and-truly stuffed - although not stuffed in quite the way I would like them to be.
Maybe their unnatural feeding habits will backfire on them and they will catch the AIM market equivalent of the coronavirus.

I've been looking for a broker's or analyst's valuation of UKOG online, but found nothing.
I did find a valuation by Motley Fool of 0.55p per share, but that was published year ago.
I've just found an analysis by Contrarian Investor, from last September.
He says, 'Tom Winnifrith believes that UKOG is worth zero ' but I think we can disregard that.
He then goes on:

'What is UKOG really worth when full production fires up at Horse Hill with the 6 wells approved at the Surrey County Council (SCC) planning meeting last week? 3500 BOPD is the maximum amount of oil allowed over 25 years, 16 tankers a day. The SCC meeting was one of the most important decisions in UKOG’s history and significant given Nimby and Swampie concerns in Surrey.

At a share price of 7p, the price/earnings ratio (p/e) is only 14 (3500 bopd) and at 2000 bopd the p/e is 25. The current share price of 1.25p is equivalent to a p/e of 2.56.

This is a top line illustrative exercise to demonstrate that UKOG shares are cheap if the HH-2 vertical well and subsequent horizontal well can be delivered during Q4 2019 without technical issues. Given the EWT has been running for some months with no water issues and steady flows which have been choked due to planning constraints. After the Broadford Bridge mess up, lessons should have been learnt by Steve Sanderson and others.

Dunsfold, Isle of White not added as production not likely during 2020, but 2021 +.Horse Hill, Horley, near Gatwick only.

If a reasonable p/e of 10 is applied this gives 5p per share and even with a 50% risk applied, 2.5p, approximately double the current 1.28p.'

https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/9/20/what-is-ukog-really-worth

The shares have roughly halved since then, and it seems there have been delays too.
In the light of what has happened since, what adjustments should be made to his estimated earnings of 0.5p per share?

Today’s news makes me even more bullish on the Hurricane Energy share price
Paul Summers | Wednesday, 5th June, 2019

A little over a month ago, I made the case for buying shares in oil explorer Hurricane Energy (LSE:HUR) if you were looking for capital gains (and BP for income).
It’s still early days, but that call is already looking good with news the company has achieved first oil at its Lancaster field in the Rona Ridge area, west of Shetland. The field — discovered 10 years ago — has been estimated to hold more than 500m barrels of oil.
This is a huge achievement by Hurricane and its CEO Dr Robert Trice — who first proposed looking for oil in fractured basement reservoirs in the UK — and an egg-on-face moment for those who doubted it would ever happen.
For sceptics, this method was too difficult and costly to be worth the trouble, despite already being employed successfully elsewhere in the world.
As previously indicated by the company, it expects efficiency of 45% over the first three months with an average production rate of 9,000 barrels. This will then rise to 65% and 13,000 barrels for the following three months.
Last week, analysts at Berenberg set a target price of 100p on the stock. That’s 66% higher than where it is right now. Naturally, it may be a while before it gets there but today’s update, coupled with the fact Hurricane delivered first oil when it said it would (and within budget) leads me to suspect it could hit this target within the next year.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/06/05/todays-news-makes-me-even-more-bullish-on-the-hurricane-energy-share-price/

Mr Chester thought that at 47p, HUR represented a 'compelling investment opportunity.'
Paul Summers thought that at 64.5p, HUR was still good value and could reach 100p by 5 June 2020.
The shares are just above 20p.
What has changed?

I'm glad you mentioned the Motley Fool, JB.

Could the Hurricane Energy share price be the bargain of the year?
G A Chester | Wednesday, 1st May, 2019

By contrast, when I last wrote about Hurricane Energy (November 2017), I felt its progress to date, potential to become a major player in the West of Shetland region, and share price of 26.75p (market cap £524m) represented an attractive risk/reward proposition. The shares are currently trading at around 47p (market cap £921m), but I continue to see a compelling investment opportunity.
The company is on track to deliver first oil from its 100%-owned Lancaster discovery before the end of June. Planned initial production is 17,000 barrels a day, and management expects to generate over $200m in operating cash flow on a full-year run-rate basis at a $60 a barrel Brent oil price.
If we see the company successfully executing on this year’s work programme, I think the share price could easily double from its current level. And with total 2P reserves and 2C contingent resources across the asset base standing at 2.3bn barrels net to Hurricane, there’s potential for the value of the company to continue increasing as time goes on.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/05/01/could-the-hurricane-energy-share-price-be-the-bargain-of-the-year/

(to be continued)

I seem to remember that there was a bond fiasco that speeded up the 2017 fall - actually a mini raise which HUR was considered to have mishandled - about which other posters can certainly explain more than I can. I seem to remember that some people thought it could have contributed to HUR's having to issue further shares at such a low price.
The reaction to the WW result is I think an indication that the 'games' to which you (John) allude have had more influence on the share price than have any real news.
RT declared his satisfaction with the result, yet people were talking about the 'failure' of WW.
I recall its being called a 'duster.'
LC was a great success, but somehow it was overshadowed by the 'failure' at WW.
Ashcroft describes it as being part of 2019’s 'largely disappointing three well campaign.'
One well out of three was a great success, yet Mr Ashcroft is left 'disappointed.'
Can he point to oil exploration companies that have a higher strike rate?
It seems to me that actual news has regularly been distorted or misinterpreted in such a way that just happens to reflect badly on the company.

I have mixed feelings about Indy's post.
Of course, I don't agree with him that the share price fall means something is wrong or that the management is expecting bad news.
'The big boys are getting out and the shorters are circling. 60% drop in 2 months is not normal, not even for AIM. '
I'm not sure whom he means by 'big boyd', but we have yet to be informed that any major shareholder has been selling - and the most recent figures indicate that nearly half HUR's share capital is in the hands of institutions.
LTHs will recall the agonies we went through when the price fell from 67.5p to 24p a couple of years ago.
I think some posters guessed correctly that a cash raise was coming at a fairly low price - and the share price converged to it (32p).
The way the market price and placing/ share offer price converged suggested that someone in the market knew what was coming.
I suppose this is the kind of situation about which investors could have nightmares.
There are two differences this time round: one is that HUR have issued an RNS declaring that they know of no cause of the share price decline (I don't recall any such declaration during the fall in 2017) and the other is that HUR don't need to go begging for cash any more.
I do recall posts claiming confidently that the fall from 32p to 24p then had to do with arbitrage games.
Everything suggests that the recent price collapse is all about games and has nothing to do with the state of the company.

Just to prove that not every financial commentator is against us:

Hurricane Energy shares jump on strong production

By UK Investor Magazine -
29/01/2020

Hurricane Energy (LON:HUR) shares jumped over 14% in early trade in Wednesday as the company released production figures that significantly beat prior guidance.
The higher levels of production has helped Hurricane Energy generate revenues of $170 million in the year to 31st December which will contribute to further developments of their fields.

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/hurricane-energy-shares-jump-on-strong-production/

Hurricane Energy floors sceptics with latest update

29 January 2020, 10:18

Having seen its shares slump in recent weeks despite no tangible newsflow North Sea oil producer Hurricane Energy (HUR:AIM) advanced 14.9% to 24.8p this morning on a positive operational update.
Between production commencing in May 2019 and the turn of the year, the company produced 3m barrels of oil in total, generating revenue of $170m and ending the year with cash of $157m.
The company is planning appraisal wells on its Lincoln discovery and a potential production well at Lancaster in 2020 although these plans have yet to be firmed up.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/hurricane-energy-floors-sceptics-with-latest-update

Hurricane Energy chief says share price slump is unjustified
CEO issues upbeat report as firm considers new well at Lancaster field West of Shetland
Hurricane Energy, the oil driller focused on the Rona ridge to the west of Shetland, is mulling a further production well on its Lancaster field.
The company, which is based in Surrey and has an office in Aberdeen, already has two wells through which the first oil began to flow last June. Flow tests on one of the wells are expected to be completed later this week, after which production is expected to resume at 20,000 barrels of oil per day.
Lancaster is the UK’s first “basement reservoir”, with oil stored in breaks or fractures between the rocks rather than holes or pores within them. Basement reservoirs are commonly exploited in other countries.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/hurricane-energy-chief-says-share-21383397