Member Info for LONGWAIT

MrCautious predicts a price of zero and Lostallfaith predicts a maximum price of 10 - 10.5p.

Remember, someone invested $3m at 10p per share and directors bought at prices of up to 12p.

Do you really think that Rothschild are getting offers of 8-10p per share, when TE-5 alone is worth about 27p per share?

I think you're being a little harsh on TSD, SIPP.

After all, his post warning of a fall to 25p was removed, even though I didn't report it, his post calling for the bogeyman (himself) to go away was also removed even though I didn't report it, and he's now saying that his broker has predicted 100p by Xmas.

That's a definite improvement (apart from the post in which he talked to himself) and I think he deserves every encouragement to do better.

Actually, DC, it's been my hunch all along, even before I started spending time in the freezer.

Posters such as TSD have an uncanny knack of turning up on BB's only when the share price has fallen sharply and investors are getting exasperated, and predicting further falls.

When the price recovers strongly, they are nowhere to be seen.

TSD posted just after 9 a.m. today, warning of a fall in HUR to 25p.
Although I didn't report it, it was removed.
He then posted, 'Removing the bogeymnans posts doesnt stop a falling share price'
Yesterday, he requested, 'Can someone make the bogeyman go away please'
and repeated the request this morning, but that post has been removed.

I agree.
As I said before, the accumulated revenue from the EPS during the next few years should equate to the current market capitalisation.
That is quite apart from all the other prospects.
An analyst recently valued HUR at about 350p, although that was before the WD setback.
A few minutes ago, TSD was warning of a fall to 25p (the post has been removed).
The last time I bought HUR shares was for 24.5p.
That was before FOIL.
I have come to the conclusion that posters like TSD are not trying to get people to sell in order to manipulate the price, but rather because they enjoy making other people miserable.

I think if I tried that, the price would break through all resistance levels.

My last post was in response to yours about Schlumberger

and that they might be happy to see SOU replaced by someone with deeper pockets

Right.

So whoever buys SOU's share would then partner Schlumberger and OGIF, unless it bid separately for their shares.

Jl:

Presumably, SOU are inviting an offer for the whole of Tendrara, not just SOU's share of it?

Is SOU actually paying for the marketing of the other two parties' shares too?

Yes, you're right, JL.

I made a similar point myself recently.

But the three of them would have to find another way forward.

I agree, Seaton.

News of a reasonable offer would at least shut many people up.

Potential bidders know that if no-one makes an acceptable bid, SOU will have to raise money and go it alone.

Just one successful drill would then set things in motion.

And they know that they would need just one successful drill to make their purchase worthwhile.

80p per share would be fair value, but AIM is all about price manipulation.

One way or another, every time it looks as though the price will make a new high, something happens.

First, it's the Warwick Deep mishap, interpreted as a failure when it is nothing of the kind; then, just after a rally, it's the transfer of a chunk of shares, somehow interpreted as a major shareholder dumping shares.

If the next drill result is only 90 percent as good as expected, you can expect another price slump.

80p per share would benefit fair value, but AIM is all about price manipulation.

One way or another, every time it looks as though the price will make a new high, something happens.

First, it's the Warwick Deep mishap, interpreted as a failure when it is nothing of the kind; then, just after a rally, it's the transfer of a chunk of shares, somehow interpreted as a major shareholder dumping shares.

If the next drill result is only 90 percent as good as expected, you can expect another price slump.

Thanks.

The big question is what is everything else worth?

I mean the seismic.

Could you clarify what the NPV10 value of TE-5 is, S/O?

Is that about 27p per share?

An independent reserve certification has identified gross contingent recoverable
resources in this discovery of approximately 377 BCF of gas.
? Valuation. Using the industry standard valuation of a discounted cash
flow analysis, we derive a valuation for the Sound Energy’s share of
the TE-5 discovery of approximately US$360 million which adjusting
for the cash equates to a value of 27.2 p/share. This uses a gas price
of US$8.9/mcf in 2019 and is escalated at 2% per annum. The
discount rate used is 10% (with a 2% reduction increasing the
valuation by a further 17%).
https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/1594/exciting-times-ahead.pdf
We were already aware of the 19 - 27p estimate.
That is why I usually say about 25p.
However, the valuation above is 27p.
The fact that JJ is much more conservative than the PER analysts is interesting, because usually sceptics will complain that JP has exaggerated the value of 1 TCF and that analysts are more conservative.

By the way, I completely agree with you about JOG.

I disagree with you about HUR's prospects: I think it's vastly undervalued.

On JOG, I think it would help if I quote the great seer TSD's actual words:

'JOG will be no more in 12 months time even though it has some cash. Look at the record of AIM oil co's.'