Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
'Looks like the Government is keen to get this pushed through'
Will be fine imo.
Full disclosure in line with the TCFD recommendations etc are shown from page 25 onward in the 2019 Annual Report
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6515/8636/0100/2019_Annual_Report_and_Accounts.pdf
See also 2019 TLW Sustainability Report.
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/9215/8694/9510/Tullow_Oil_plc_Sustainability_Report_2019.pdf
$44.28, still holding up.
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart
currently $43.34 with +ve sentiment around demand and CV..
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart
Hi guys, catching up with your good discussion which is keeping my understanding here alive .
Just to clarify, fcf is based on $35 oil and we are currently $43 and we are 60% hedged this year, 40% next year?
With the uganda deal, short term liquidity 2020/21 and conditions for removal of the audit qualification now met, doest seem an issue barring any surprises in reporting updates..
Looking out, while governments etc have been usiing $80 oil to plan economies 30/ 50 years out, $60 seems to be pivotal in the uganda deal for contingent payments. It doesnt seem unreasonable to me to project 5 years+ at $60?
So, if we get some part/ all of the $1bn portfolio management,eg kenya, are we out of the wood? or are we unclear about years 2 to 5 of the recovery given interest rates will be near zero over the period even though demand is likely fully recovered.
And if years 1 and 2 conditions/ targets met, does that mean the new ceo is likely to explore growth funded from rights issues or revert to low interest debt based on solid cashflows etc?
We are clearly approaching a tipping point and I certainly will be looking for clues in the ceo's remarks on 29th.
We should at least get evidence as to his energy, character, vision etc? Compare that to Dotty etc?
No shortage of opportunities. With debt and cashflows recallibrated to maintain a more 'conservative' balance sheet, tlw may have an opportunity to layer in additinal low cost, value adding production under the new ceo?
Will depend on Slifts point about debt restructuring..
'Hi Longish,
The $25m was for G+A savings for next year If I remember correctly.
But they did mention a further Capex saving of $15m after Uganda sale.
Which takes known cost savings to $100m.'
Thanks Slift, well remembered. That circular was a long document...
Not sure how valuation and strategy impacted. Say, [23m bopd] or [30%] of current revenue for cash?. Would be interesting to compare the current value of an income producing asset like TEN vs the discounted price of uganda asset and its projected future income.
Shorts been playing with it for a while now. Any LTH (or shorter)will know the pattern. With a strong balance sheet and cash, the Turkish acquisition plays into growth and recovery so I am back in to recover some losses here. Not chasing it though, bottom drawer...
Back over $43.
https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
18 June 2020 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) announces that, further to its announcement on 23 April 2020 in relation to the agreed sale of its entire stake in the Lake Albert Development Project in Uganda to Total for US$575 million in cash plus post first oil contingent payments, a shareholder circular relating to the Transaction (the Circular) has been published today, having received approval from the Financial Conduct Authority.
Deadline for lodging Forms of Proxy with Tullow's UK registrar/CREST Proxy Instructions/website proxy/Proxymity appointment 12 noon on 13 July 2020
Voting Record Time 6.00 p.m. on 13 July 2020
General Meeting 12 noon on 15 July 2020
Thanks Akhtar, 'we do not know how strong demand will be and if the green revolution is being accelerated'
The developing 'green' policies are generally underpinned with 'voluntary guidance' which TLW has already adopted best practice and adopting 'best in class' policy.
The FSB Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has developed 'voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures for use by companies in providing information to investors, lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders and help companies understand what financial markets want from disclosure in order to measure and respond to climate change risks, and encourage firms to align their disclosures with investors’ needs.
TLW recognise 'climate change and the decarbonisation of the global economy represent fundamental strategic risks to their business.. and are proactively taking action to mitigate these risks by:
'complying with emerging climate change legislation and regulation and reducing our GHG emissions as far as is reasonably practical; minimising the GHG emissions potential of our activities and implementing reduction initiatives; adopting a business strategy that is responsive to applicable regulatory developments designed to address climate change; and maintaining transparency and openness in our engagement about climate change'
Full disclosure in line with the TCFD recommendation are show from page 25 onward in the 2019 Annual Report
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6515/8636/0100/2019_Annual_Report_and_Accounts.pdf
See also, pages 27 and 28 of the 2019 TLW Sustainability Report.
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/9215/8694/9510/Tullow_Oil_plc_Sustainability_Report_2019.pdf
More good analysis Slift.
My 'philosophical' perspective supports $60. We know the IMF, governments, firms et al were using $80 for their long range plans/ FIDs before the pandemic. Total and TLW appear to have set c$60 as a tipping point for the Uganda deal. The world returning to WTO rules must adopt common definitions of cost including the price of oil and each sovereign economy will aim to comply in setting policies, including cleaner/ greener energy. This will apply across the tlw geographical footprint. The markets can remain asynchronous for long periods and 'flip flop' around common definitions but never the less, imo, guidance is set for compliance on a glide path to $60 and higher oil prices. To survive this transition period, its fortunate tlw have the hedges and saleable assets to bridge (polarise?) the trade gaps with the real economy.