National success26 Aug 2022 21:04
I was here 2 years ago when this dropped to just over £1 during covid, sold out around £2.20 (almost instantly regretted it) and have just returned following the most recent trading update.
During Covid it was a very uncertain time for travel and National Express was really hard hit, however pre-covid it was trading at close to £4. I realise that there's a potentially even bigger issue up ahead, with the recession, global energy prices etc. however the key differences here are that National Express are embracing these as opportunities.
As people cut back, eventually the number of cars in a household will decrease and school transport, public buses and coaches will all be in greater demand for those occasions when people do need to travel.
The other thing that lured me in was the company secretary investing a good chunk of personal income at close to £1.90.
I may be overly optimistic, but with those opportunities you could actually see National Express coming out of it in a better position than it entered the pandemic when it was £4 per share.
Plus there's also a bit of money floating about in M&A which could always come this way, especially after the Go Ahead deal didn't proceed. With its position in the market, Nex could prove a nice little target for these advances.
The recent short taken at £1.74 before the trading update is now back in positive. If I was them I'd be cashing out whilst I can given the pretty positive outlook here as there are plenty of other easy targets they can punish with less risk.