Member Info for LongerGuy

That's why I've become a little disheartened here Paddy. It's not because I don't believe in the investment and the potential of the company, it's all the other opportunities that I've genuinely missed out on (THG and WG not being amongst them, but 888, Petrofac, Tesla, a US pharma company etc. all of which I have watched get oversold, but have not been able to buy because I have the majority tied in here sat at a loss. They've increased at least 50% to over 100% from when my buy price would have been triggered).

I do feel the turn is imminent here though which is why I refuse to swallow my loss and temporarily put it elsewhere as ill probably miss the rise. The increase chatter on the board and the start of positive news flows, have further added to some of my previously mentioned reasoning so it really does feel like it's coming soon.

So the catalyst we need is for you to sell up here Paddy?

I feel you Paddy, I had the same with 888 last week.

Wow, that's a strong reaction to a very loose update and not even a firm proposal. I wonder what an announcement like that would do here?

My guess is 5% which is then slowly sold off throughout the day (that's a joke by the way, but knowing this stock you never know!)

I disagree around the interest being out by now Josey. Until their are director dealings, then I think there's a strong possibility.

Surprisingly detailed story relating to growth in the coach business https://www.route-one.net/coach/growth-beckons-for-the-scheduled-coach-market-national-express/

That happened on 888 recently. People insisted it would drop to under 50p and within a week it's 50% higher than that

Damn, he said this is going to be £7 by the end of 2023. Huge upside here, only 8 months to go Rodney.

They are tiny, this went as low as 110 though.

Did you really expect anything less though? If they were able to bring it down, why would they let it rise as they are closing? They held the price down so they get maximum profit.

Pmentha, this hasn't dropped as shorts have decreased, it's pretty much stayed stable or in fact may have had a slight increase.

I don't view it as a negative JG. I think it's either potentially his own personal financial circumstances or that he's not allowed to buy because of insider trading regulations.

If there was something negative that's deterring him, then the other directors would be able to see it too and would likely have reduced their own exposure. Plus there's the major institutional holders who would likely have similar knowledge and would be looking to protect their investment.

Thanks Paddy.

I agree regarding the reasons to invest in the first place, if anything, things have improved from my original position. As you know, I too was in here during the covid capitulation and rise so I've learnt the benefit of patience (and averaging down when possible).

I've seen so many shares get thumped down and then fire back up in the time I've been here, my only really question is why is this one taking so long?

What I find really interesting is that none of the major holders (those over 5%) and none of the board have made any changes to their positions since September time (this excludes both JPM and Blackrock who have only moved from a non-reportable position to a reportable one in the last month). During that period it has dropped from a short term high of £2 to £1.17. If it was in trouble you'd have imagined they would have been reducing, but if it's oversold you would imagine they would have been buying to improve their average.

One possible explanation and the other thing that happened around September was published PE acquisition rumours. I know these things take time, but surely it's getting to a point where if there's substance to the rumours, there needs to be pressure put on to get a firm offer or close their interest so anyone with insider knowledge can trade again.

That late trade is interesting PC. That's 8m traded at 117.8 in the last 2 days. I wonder if it's all the same seller or buyer and whether that's why this stock is being so tightly held at the moment.

Given we don't have MM here I'm not sure how they are managing to do it though.

This is the best site I've found for broker ratings. Unless anyone else has found a better one

https://www.stockomendation.com/companies/nex-national-express-group/stock-tips

Paddy after yesterday I'm getting close to you, but still with a higher average. How do you stay so calm?

I don't get it either JG and that's why I'm convinced something good is coming. If it was negative then they would have had to update the market (and we're only a month removed from the last update).

The only thing that pizzles my theory is why if it's positive, is it not rising. Someone posted an article a few months ago that explained it really well though and apparently it's all related to depressing the perceived value to make an offer seem more generous.

Well I'm in the "jumped too soon" brigade having averaged down here by selling out of 888 yesterday. I know Paddy and others here have done the same so I'm amongst friends.

I'm sure this has better days ahead, looking at the pages of those stocks which have seen rapid turnarounds lately, the more heated the debate seems to get on these boards the closer it seems to be to that magic turning point.

Maybe next week?

So they are back above the reportable limit, hopefully we won't get a reversal RNS like last time.

Ssssh PT, you'll frighten it away. Now everybody stay quiet and no sudden movements.

What's also odd or that there have supposedly been less than 200k trades. I wouldn't be surprised if there's further "late reported" ones being worked in the background