Reading recently a memo from UniCredit (link below) about how to achieve herd immunity with the vaccine, I realized that:
- The efficacy of the vaccine will define the range of population to vaccinate to achieve herd immunity
- With a 90% vaccine, to achieve herd immunity it requires the vaccination of at least 55%-75% population.
- With a 70% efficacy it requires the vaccination of at least 75%-90% population
- From what we see, a country will use several vaccines brands with different efficacy so the range for herd immunity might become higher.
- In some countries, people are resistant to being vaccinated. Some just don't want to and some want to wait a bit to have more feedback on vaccines.
- Some countries might have to make vaccination mandatory at a point
- Plus herd immunity scenario requires a specific cold supply chain for some vaccines, no mutation of the virus, supposes that immunity is permanent but we might have to revaccinate regularly.
It seems that it will be a long way to globally achieve herd immunity.
In the meantime, outgoing and incoming flows of people will have to be controlled in each country in order not to waste all the efforts.
So Airports testing, Ports testing, Int'l railway testing will become necessary for years and PCR has been chosen as the "Gold Standard" for that.
Hospitals, ER, Clinics will also continue to use PCR testing for incoming patients.
That's why in my opinion, Testing is here to stay
https://www.research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/economics_docs_2020_178473.ashx?EXT=pdf&KEY=C814QI31EjqIm_1zIJDBJNz_HpRJyanXi5s4r-TySBU=&T=1
Sorry might have read too fast and misread the numbers.
@Ventura1 - Yes you're right from recent survey on Statista/Ipsos in November, only 59% French said they would accept to be vaccinated, US 67% and UK 85%.
https://fr.statista.com/infographie/22783/pays-populations-acceptent-refusent-vaccin-vaccination-covid-19/
How can it be validated based on only the results of eight people who received the vaccine.
That doesn't sound safe at all.
I understand why there will be some resistance towards the vaccine and this will raise questions from everywhere.
I also understand why some French health experts said on the radio yesterday that there is no rush to validate the vaccine, that it is not a race.
And, from what I understood, as it is a contract with the government all communications need to be validated by the government first. If Novacyt were to communicate they would need to get the Government approval on that communication.
But the government has already replied. IMO there is no need for Novacyt to respond.
This article has already been discussed here a while ago. It was at the start of the rollout and there was apparently a bit of resistance from a couple of hospitals, which is expected as it changes their habits and processes.
You probably saw since then a few positive tweets from NHS staff related to the deployment of Q16/Q32 machines.
I don't think it impacts the phase 2 as the UK government clearly wants to have a diagnostic network and equip all hospitals to be ready to test for Covid but also for other diseases (flu, ...).
The whole idea is that UK will from now on always be ready should another pandemic arise.
Hence the £22bn contract too.
We are recruiting 2 additional kit production technicians....
https://www.fish4.co.uk/job/10111325/kit-production-technician/
"As a KIT Production Technician, you will be tasked with the production and assembly of finished Covid kits at our facility in Southampton"
Well it feels like a phase 2 or care home contract shall land soon
I am French and what I recently heard in France from market analysts is that since the Biden's election things have slightly change a bit economically and the Covid certainly didn't help either. The market has now anticipated that there will be a deal, not easy to get with lots of negotiations, but a deal. The no deal scenario is apparently no longer considered.
So my view on this is that there would be agreements for companies like Novacyt. UK Companies with subsidiaries in Europe and European companies with UK subsidiaries.
Not sure it is holding back the SP.
The market always anticipates 6 months ahead and this is what happened with the vaccine early announcements.
Some investors dropped the Covid stocks to invest back in the stocks which suffered from the Covid situation.
Because unlike others, some didn't understand or believe in the Novacyt project.
It is not a Covid stock, it is a diagnostic company and more than ever we have now entered the diagnostic era.
Novacyt group understood it and put in place the right action plan.
Of course, this is my view on it!
No out of stock signs but we don't have any message saying "we ship same day as we have stock" either....
so I believe we sell all we produce through our direct sales and distributors
It doesn't give any indication on how many we produce though but it sounds all positive to me.
We sell all we produce, whichever is this manufacturing capacity!
Article in Sharebuyers mentioning the confirmed support from Numis & SP Angel to Novacyt management and the continued need for testing should a vaccine be available.
https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/novacyt-ceo-buys-big-as-sp-angel-reaffirms-buy-rating/
....
The buys in Novacyt come as the share price took a hit from news of a COVID-19 vaccine which many believe was overdone. Broker also Numis echoed this sentiment (Numis brushes off COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough impact on Novacyt).
And this view was further supported by SP Angel who reaffirmed a buy rating on Novacyt with a target price of £14.63 – indicating over 70% upside potential (at £8.50 as the starting point).
Referring to the purchase by Mullis, SP Angel noted that it highlights the continued confidence management has in the business. It also expressed similar views to Numis and investors regarding the continued need for testing, namely:
- An effective COVID-19 vaccine should eventually reduce the need for testing but high demand for testing will still be present in FY 21.
- When a COVID-19 vaccine is rolled out, demand for diagnostics will decrease but not disappear.
- A smaller yet durable need for Novacyt’s tests will continue and other products such as those that test for immunity responses will be needed as vaccines are unlikely to provide indefinite immunity to COVID-19.
Could Versalab be a Covid testing service for the US then ? What do you think ?
Just heard that NFL teams were tested PCR 3 days a week and now 7 days a week ... Real need in the US
He said that France took a long time to update their website just to list WInterplex and that it is not over that France might need it in the beginning of Spring.
So far France said multiplex should be used at hospitals, ER, and care homes, ... but we have no feedback on the French sales. I guess we have to wait for NCYT sales update to know about it.