Member Info for LoggyLogbot

I put a similar article here:
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=508

Just had my first small foray into TM1 - very encouraging reading.

Ian67,
The dividend is tied to the quantity of shares you have. You get 8p for every share you own. The cheaper you buy the shares, the better return you get. For instance if you bought them at 50p your return would be 16%. If you bought them for a £1 your return would be 8%.

Apologies if posted previously

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-dives-into-another-mining-merger-hotspot-20220912-p5bhec

Well, my previous dealings with UFO were around the time when it went from around .1p to 2.5p or so in 2020 - those were great times although I sold out gradually 'til around 1.4p on the way up - doing fairly well but not hitting the jackpot! However I've been following for a long time, and the company now is in a much better shape and the possibility of cash flow is a real possibility. I've been following the hanco(k progress for a good while and that is the one I've had my eye on. With the new appointments there seems to be a constant flow of good news, and I'm now back in with a small amount @ .625p which I am hoping to add to when funds become available.

Having tried to think about all possibilities both positive & negative since Newcrest's decision to not take 5%. I can see where people's fears are ( are NCM trying to scupper GGP? ) but my conclusion in the cold light of day is the same as Dip's below. What would NCM gain from deliberately delaying any part of this process? The sooner they get to cash flow the better for both parties.

There is always someone with a FUD fetish, often coupled with a specific SXX kink. I expect you siit there with your trousers round your ankles when the stock price falls, ready to type your favourite three letters. God only knows what happens next if you get a 'recommend'.

Hey Mush, I hope your dessert spoon has a shovel based design....

Good comment notrader - the funding is the final piece of the jigsaw. We've just got to find it!

I'd agree with Paul's view.
My take is - have some in your portfolio, keep for ever, don't worry too much about SP fluctuations, add when "low" providing you're diversified. Follow the long term chart ( 5 yrs + ).

Arguably more useful is the number of shares on loan compared to the "average daily trading" volume.
JC's post on the other site shows that on Friday, 90.78M shares were on loan, which is 6.18 days' worth ( i.e. days to cover, also shown ).

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=164

I'm in full agreement - I've seen people who do well with one trade, up a huge percentage, but then it all goes on another trade and then it's down a similar amount so back to square one. I would argue at least *some* kind of strategy is needed, and it looks like mine may have similarities to yours. I attempt to accumulate mainly high yielding 'solid company' shares when there is a buying opportunity, with the intention to hold for a long time. Any dividends get re-invested coupled with some monthly money I put aside. I do have a few more speculative investments, which may or may not succeed. However if they do, the returns can be decent and plenty of that money is put back into the "safer" high yielders with hopefully some left over to take some little chances here and there!
Picking up DLG in the 11 & 12% dividend bracket was definitely an opportunity - we don't know how it will pan out , but I am hopeful that margins will be restored and the dividend can be maintained.

Not if they've got it in the same cr@p savings account as me.

Drop is predominantly 'cos it's gone Ex Div.
Add the £2.21 per share you'll be getting if you held yesteday to the current price per share.
I would definitely recommend RIO - I can't add more at the moment as I'mn a bit heavy in them but I would also be happy buying in under £50. Even with a ballpark 30% reduction in divi you still get a hefty return with potential capital gain.

I am basing this (fairly) arbitrarily on the 267 cents interim divi against the 376 previous interim divi ( completely ignoring specials )
If a similar reduction happens with final, then that'd be 296 cents from 417.

This gives a total of 563 cents - @.82 Exchange = £4.61 per share.
At £50 per share this is a return of 9.22%
At today's £48 this is a return of 9.6%

Obviously a good year, iron ore prices up, Aluminium prices up and it could be a lot better?!!

Hi Robleo, I have my DLG shares in my long term 'divi' ISA where the trading costs are £10 ( don't particularly use that account to do any trading), so that cost usually focusses the mind - meaning I need a really decent reason to 'change horses' !
I stuck rather than twisted, so I'm also pleasantly surprised this morning that the SP is holding pretty firm - obviously time will tell .... DLG hit quite a bad low and my hunch (or hope!) is that the SP can 'regroup' ( I can't think of better word! ) and claw back to something at least a little bit closer to the 250s over the next few months, which is the consensus broker estimates (FWIW) that arrived in August.

I read yesterday that Admiral did okay by putting prices up by much more than inflation, and they felt the rest of the market would follow. DLG (along with all the other insurers) having now also put prices up need to be laser focussed on inflation and their price setting. I guess it's a tricky conundrum setting prices to attempt to keep or increase market share when you don't know how extraordinary the next inflation figures are, and the companies that respond the cleverest will have the best success.

God, this is the longest post I've ever written, with probably the most metaphors. I hope you're not too bored yet....!
Loggy

Cheers TT. We've certainly cleared a few hurdles recently, that's for sure.
Most of the news in the pipeline now should be positive - Greatland are obviously awaiting NCM s decision on the 5%. I think they'll take it. I'm not sure that news (5%) will be in isolation either - I think we'll get some other financial news along side it - confirmation on how GGP intend to use portions of it ( loan repayment which we know about etc ) is an obvious one, but SD usually pulls something from left field that we've not thought about!

Hi TT,
Was it ever established why they accepted a reduction in shares? Was it because the deal was brought forward, i.e executed prior to the FS / official decision to mine?

Hi RA, I don't know why he didn't go the whole way and copy the other paragraph as well. But I guess Two out of Three Aint Bad.

Quite a bit to weigh up -
I've always stayed away from the stress of trying to sell & buy back although it (looks like) it usually works more often than not. I've decided to hold - I got a tranche at 1.87 so theoretically I would comfortably be able to trade that batch, but I'm going for the fact that these are historically low ( at 2013 levels? ) and I'm going to plough on and take the divi, re-investing that. So apologies in advance for the big drop tomorrow!

All things being equal it will drop around 7.6p, equivalent to the divi, tomorrow.
But all things are never equal, so it could do many things!