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Multi year cup & handle on the weekly; break back above 39p & 73.6p would be the measured move based on that. That would be my 3 - 6 month macro view.

But your assumption is that if they raise it will be at 17p or below. Which would be at around a 50% discount to today’s stock price.

Hypothetically, if they raised at 25p, why would it then gap fill to 17p with all funding concerns, if any, alleviated. I think this is where your logic is perhaps a bit flawed.

Not all fund raises are bad remember. Real companies, with real prospects & businesses generally go up on capital raises if there’s a tangible business need & it’s spent in a value accretive way, not just for funding director life styles. Something to keep in mind.

I provided some VWAPs the other day, a raise would generally be based on these which are considerably higher than 17p.

The most lethargic technical break I've ever seen. Unless its NT kind of says to me nobody is in a rush to sell, certainly not in size. traders CGAF either. Wish someone would hurry up & wick us to the downside to see what happens.

Not uncommon to under cut key support intra day. Infact it’s healthy. Usually confirms the bottom if you see a convicted bounce.

If not 32p 2nd July VWAP in play. Below that the 29p area would be my next area of interest.

Not getting overly excited. Be disciplined & look for opportunity.

This is always possible yes, but at what level would you suggest if it were the case?

I'm seeing marginal downside really. We are not at the mercy of a bucket shop raise. Far from it.

Some quick VWAPS for you. Value accretive raises are generally based on a VWAP of this general timeframe. Included is where base of the move on 2nd July.

1 month @ 40.5p / 2 month @ 36p / 2 July @ 32p

Despite my perceived bearish persona I don't think we will fill that July gap unless theres a complete fundamental change to the companies outlook or failure of one of the major objectives / milestones.

Only technical points of note for me is we have wicked thru the 50 sma today for the first time since the July move but that means very little. It's always interesting to see if a stock respects the 50 sma (closes only); some do, some don't. MKA looks neither here nor there. Probably due to its realtive historic illiquidity & very little institutional involvement when it comes to general trading. It's the larger caps where this has more significance due to institutional activity over retail but none the less, something to watch. VWAP since the July move sitting around 32p & grinding up which is good.

Nothing much to excite me really. General low volume. Doesn't look like anyone is particulary keen to buy or sell in any sort of size just now while we wait.

Early riser, or are you based down under too?

I think the 'hype' is reasonable given the sectors macro & fundamental tail winds. Valuation compared to peers, in the UK & abroad, would also seem to be on the low side. The potential is certainly there & the situation is very different to the usual AIM death spiral finance required to get a mine or biotech developed. MKA are already poking their head into the commercial space, toward the tail end of development.

In terms of cash position, I analysed the full financial statement & cash position is good well into Q1 in a mid case, excluding any major unforeseen expenditures. Additional warrant conversion will help & the SPAC listing could be the key to financial 'freedom' for MKA; IPO's & equivalents have been going hang busters over there & mix in rare earths it could do very nicely.

I'm not sure what kind of money they need to ramp up additional operations or commissioning costs, admitedly, but there looks to be a decent amount of grant, public & private money going around in that space. Others can probably advise better on the potential 'additional' costs you are interested in.

Chart wise I doubt it 'cooled' off because of funding concerns, it was just typical market behaviour with buyer exhaustion & the emergence of a strong seller(s) which has been covered at nauseum in previous posts so no need to re-hash it. Skip to what you need to know now; the trading range for now is 34p - 39p & a purchase close to 34p is a very good a place to enter in the absence of new news or information. 34p is well supported & coincides with 0.618 FIB retracement so its as solid a technical base as your going to get, its a bit thin under there but that should only be considered if we ever close below.

You’re right, I called the rising wedge as it was forming, as it was breaking & as it rolled over. It literally could not get any more text book. I shared support levels & was open about adding to my position if we hit 34p, which we did literally down to a single trade & I was one of the first to start buying when it did.

Who else uses patterns & technicals? Institutions & HNWI’s…(warrant holders & significant share holders) So if you know where they will look to buy & sell, then your one step ahead of most. The selling sure did look to dry up all of a sudden didn’t it.

I wish my tweets & comments could induce the £100k’s worth of selling pressure that drove us down because I’d be a very rich man. As far as I can tell everyone on this board is a long term investor so it wouldn’t matter what I said in any case. But if a few decided not to try catch the falling the knife & wait until we saw a reversal than I’m happy if my comments helped, they did better than those getting ramped into buying in the 40’s...

Could we reverse on todays move & go even lower, hell yeah we could. And if we do, I have a plan to buy more at key levels. Until then there’s nothing to do but wait & watch.

Well done to those who managed to get some around 35p, nailed it on the day.

Would be wonderful if we can fight our way back above 39p in the near term in the absence of downward pressure.

Yes, a sudden sentiment shift for anyone who was not expecting the move & the theorising begins.

I'm of the camp there is nothing fundamental behind the move, it was triggered by 'sell on news' results posting in which I couldn't find anything overly concerning. Cash at current projected burn rate is good into next year unless they need some on hand immediately for additional ramp up, expansion or commissioning activity. I suspect they would have raised already if so. VWAP since Aug-1 is +/- 40p so I find it hard to think they'd do one at a noticeable discount to that if they do. It's not really their style.

Someone is offloading though, I had bid alerts set up at 36p, 35p & 34.5p which triggered exactly in line with the delayed large trades in the couple hours of trading yday.

I will say I was surprised by the follow through to the downside we had yday, I expected a bit of a nothing day given the price action the day before but we’ve evidently got a sustained seller who continued to do so. Annoyingly we only had about 15 minutes of the session left after we touched 34p, which didn't really give us enough time to see the extent to which buyers would try to step in. I picked up 30k shares but I see someone worked thru a 51k & 52k order which locked a lot of people out with only 7 mins of trading left.

It'll be interesting to see how tomorrow opens, the trading session ending just as things started to get exciting which can act as a bit of a reset unfortunately but I'm hoping to get another chance at picking up some more before a sustained bounce.

If you've got some powder dry this is definitely a level to consider adding from a technical perspective but equally there's no need to rush in. The RSI still has a bit to go before your hitting the 'trough' valuation points where you can mark out clear bottoms since the overall move started late last year. History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme.

Price is price. Its up to us to take advantage of the situation regardless of the mechanism to which it got there. But I wouldn't consider a +/- 18% move in 3 days a crash for a stock that can have a spread of 1p / 3%. It's part of the game.

Warrant selling is the obvious source of selling volume & it doesn't take much to move a relatively illiquid stock. You'd be stupid not to de-risk an overnight 5+ bagger if you were a warrant holder that just converted. Those guys didn't get rich from not taking profits in the past. But we can profit from their moves with the opportunities it presents us.

Picked up 30k shares. Managed to get the 10k at 34.44p & the rest at 35p. May add more once the initial rush & dust settles.

Lets see how it plays out, but I'll look to add more if we get there. Got stopped out of some tech stocks when the US opened an hour ago so sitting on some cash. Naturally they have all bounced since...

Looks like I'll have to stay up another hour before going to bed to see what happens here, currently living down under.

First golden cross since October 2023. Technicals are looking excellent .

When we get the 200 sma pointing upward it'll signal a monumentous shift in momentum which we've not seen in years. :)

Whether we had a tree shake, cascade of stop triggering or volentary selling from short term holders we witnessed a technical break below 39p which we couldn't regain. The 15m chart shows once we broke that was it, with a failed early afternoon rally attempting to break back above. A very unpopular oppinion but as we closed below the 22sma for the first time since July 1st it signals a short term momentum shift to the downside regardless if we think there are more buys than sells.

Does this mean the sky is falling in & its all over; no, far from it. But expect volatility if we stay below 39p while we wait for news. It would not be uncommon for tomorrow to finish blue after today's fairly agressive move to the downside but you need to remain cautious as the price will likely slowly move to the next support level. Acting support / resistance is now 34p / 39p.

The current cash position is sufficient to see us well into Q1, possibly Q2 in the absence of any further grants or even the SPAC listing so from that aspect I don't see any reason to be concerned. The fundamental & macro tail winds are huge but nothing goes up in a straight line, especially on the AIM so we need to be prepared for days like today & periods of re-trace / re-test before the next move higher. Rome wasn't built in a day.

If anyone thinks I'm trying to get them to sell when I make statements like the above then that's silly. Understanding the short term moves can go a long way to sleeping easy at night.

I think that's a pretty spot on summary.

What is important to note but isn't readily highlighted in the RNS is that the Q3 warrants have raised an additional +/- $800k USD so the cash position is better than it would first appear giving ample runway for near term expenditures.

When there are expectations (justified or not) of an update following a similar timeline it often can be the case unfortunately.

At the same time people love to sell on news & results regardless. Take a look at MSFT, they posted possibly their best quarter earnings of all time, gapped about 10% to ATH's then have just sold down ever since. Expectation > reality in the world of stocks. For the big guys too. Surprises are when the real money is made.

But as ESDUK says, once there is revenue coming in things should be different especially with projected growth Q on Q.

I don't think the outstanding warrants has contributed to today's pull back, it was fairly common knowledge. I expect it was mainly due to the expectation of a material update to accompany todays results which hasn't eventuated so some shorter term holders may decide to sell.

This move has been setting up during last week with 2 doji's (market indecision) both flipping to the downside, with follow thru today.

It depends how we close, it could be a mere intraday flush / share grab with a strong reversal or the start of a short term trend toward the next level at 34p. Short term support was 39p so stop losses are now very much in play & trading will take precedence in the absence of material news.

Medium to long term nothing has changed but the short term could get a little bumpy.

MM aren’t stop fishing at the moment. If they drop the bid below 39p that’s a clear sign of a liquidity grab. Current level being defended.

I agree - news is more powerful than any sort of TA here.