Perspective24 Mar 2023 10:39
Morning all. Just a few thoughts before wishing you all a good weekend and switching off;
1. It is not realistic to expect news every week, and this 'superficial' timetable agenda is purely troll driven, it is patently obvious that COPL have been incredibly busy in the last 12 months acquiring and developing assets (this is still on-going)
2. AM has been naive in some of his comms, specifically around the RBL, and stating that September/October was not a good time to negotiate an RBL because of market turbulence. That was the geologist oil man speaking and not the economist (which he is not), fact is that global market turbulence still prevail, and that indeed the global economic and geopolitical environment is still incredibly fragile and hard to predict. Theses are challenging times for any small company.
3. It is a fact that getting hold of extractive equipment (casing/tubing/rigs) is a global challenge post pandemic coupled with the east/west tensions etc. , there are delays in nearly all such projects (think UK here, shelving HS2, huge economic challenges, food shortages, labour shortages to name just a few...)
4. Like a good property developer, AM has bought up the assets, (realised potential reserves and banked a very respectable number to date, with more to come, fact). He's now more or less stripping it down in order to establish a far better infrastructure for future production, this means a reduction in current production, yes, but it's forward looking, it's progressive, it's also a big sign of confidence that he's taken this route instead of going for the 'easy money' so to speak.
5. He has evidenced that that he will play hardball re: JV, again he's not a CEO who'll be rushed to please shareholders, good things come to those that wait.
6. I'm more inclined to be worried about pollution than dilution (which let's face it is simply inevitable for a small-cap evolving into mid-cap DYOR). In this current (and future) oil industry, you'll need to be squeaky clean or there are lasting damages/repercussions, companies will need to prove their green (non polluting) credentials at every turn (and in return they' can continue to extract). AM knows this full well, and is growing the company with this in mind, (f.e improving infrastructure at a significant cost). JV parter will also welcome this emphatically.
7. Timing is everything, can't disagree with the consensus is a significant crude oil price rise into 2023 end and 2024 (lack of USA reserves to factor in too), not a shabby time then to have low production with incremental increases more or less guaranteed as we head into 2024 and higher prices/demand. Let's face it, history likes to repeat itself and after every recession/depression the good times roll again for a decade or so. Very realistic to expect a boom time for the oil industry.
8. Stocks and shares are on their knees at this level, let's face it. The disposable of the covid years is simply swallowed up in inflationary chal
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