Member Info for lland

Do you think it's going to survive this time round?

Totally agree with you on that, his performance was underwhelming at best this week. Anyway, don’t want to be one of those that talks it down after making the loss, so observing from here on. If there’s a big improvement in strategy and performance, will dive back in. Still a chance for TCG if they get rid of the CEO and find another transformation expert to excite the city, have a good winter booking period with some cash generation. It’s not a dead duck yet, just the opportunity cost of being invested here is too rich for my blood. GLA

Last straw. Debt is a ticking time bomb on this. Can still be turned around, but this sector is hard enough without struggling up hill with a head wind. Far too late, I'm out and licking wounds. Good luck all.

You can actually book a Thomas Cook holiday online you know. They are multichannel. You can even go through Expedia.

Funny. I'm looking at that chart and seeing severely over sold.

@airbus330 - time will tell. I'm up to my neck on this one, so looking for the glimmers of hope to persuade me to ride it out. Provided they're more sensible with capacity planning this coming year, which does seem to be a front and centre focus, I think performance will be better, enough to make the current SP look cheap.

If I'm wrong, this one's going to be my tax write off for the next couple of years.

I've used the brief sub-20p period to buy back in. Happy to hold now until the first offer comes through.

Times Business section has done a write up on this disaster, but the take home is that the exceptionals are out of the way, revenue is up and the CEO is unlikely to make the same mistakes again this year with regards excess capacity requiring reduced margin, so things should start heading in the right direction.

They're advising to buy as the fears of the company going bust are overdone.

@Pokerchips - totally agree with you on that point. Looking at the pre-offer price without applying a discount is very risky. I'd say fair value in the current climate is closer to 135-140p.

Still a substantial uplift from today's overdone panic drop. I'm in again anyway with a toe in the water.

Nearly bought in at 118p, but held off. May have missed the boat. Good luck all. To anyone who was stuck in this from the top end, my commiserations.

Where's the bottom going to be on this? Think I'd come in at the right price.

Morgan Stanley have also suspended their price guidance due to "very wide risk reward spread of between 20p and 130p".

They basically can't decide how to value the company: "With more upside to our bull case than our bear case, the shares already seem to be pricing in a lot of risk and appear attractive. But we have little confidence in our forecasts, and less so in our FCF forecasts."

Feels to me like the new Finance guy has come in and imposed some discipline, unhappy with how the business was conducting itself previously, which is a move in the right direction. Really need some genuine clarity and a viable strategy to get the city back on side in tomorrow's statement.

Barclays Capital have just reiterated Equal Weight rating with a Target of 46p, which is a decent gain from current SP. 40p may not be that far away after all.

Unfortunately still looks to be finding its level this morning, although surely not much further to drop. This does feel well over done, and presents a possible takeover opportunity to the right parties. For the rest of us already in it, it's a case of wait and see.

Bought more at 18.7p, wasn't expecting an opportunity that good again.

Interesting Bloomberg reaction this morning. This could now be very cheap for an activist investor.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-27/there-s-still-hope-for-thomas-cook-after-its-travel-fail

There's going to be a 9am presentation. Should make for some interesting viewing. This company is now officially my worst investment decision ever. Silver lining I hope is that we're close to rock bottom, and that a turn around can be achieved. GLA

This was steadily trading at 40p for three months earlier this year. Since then we've got at least two rival bidders, a massive lowering in fuel costs, more valuable slots, commitments to subsidise from local authorities and progress on Brexit. Why anyone thinks this is worth selling for anything less than 40p is beyond me. Not greedy to be expecting 40p on this.

So glad I broke my own rule and bought back in on Friday afternoon after selling too early on Friday morning. Missed out on a bit of the rise, but this has got so much further to go. Rival bidders with history the perfect scenario to secure maximum value here now. GLA.

One of the main reasons given recently by TCG for poor performance was the unseasonably warm weather. Well, good news, quote from Daily Mail today: “It comes as Britain is predicted to face its coldest winter for eight years, with below normal temperatures through January and February.” There’s no guarantee of course, but this should lead to more bookings. GLA