Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Certainly an odd pattern in recent days - now code 100 (haha) meant to mean they need your shares?

As a mere 'value investor', who is really more interested in fundamentals over the medium term, has anyone any insight into the recent trading pattern?

Just trying to keep the price down with the repeated 0.273 sells, until the last one!? But why?

Someone over exposed and really needs some money (they shouldn't be in AIM stocks)?

Some convoluted position ('shorts with covered put' etc. - whatever that is) unwinding?

Any ideas anyone?

My take is still that the price is lower than proven assets, doesn't include Romania/Italy exploration upside and certainly doesn't include Spain - which in practice is actually very low risk as if the MT survey were to show a dud (which seems highly unlikely) we just walk away having spent very little.

Personally I'm looking forward to positive news on Spain preliminary MT, moving forward with the Grancesti workover and committing to the next stage of Italy exploration. Not to mention confirmation of first income from gas sales.

IMHO / DYOR / GLA

AM123 - Have had a proper look through the update in respect of the Selva Malvezzi shared concession (PVE/PVO – 63%, UOG 20%, PXOG 17%) and all seems quite positive. My understanding is fund shared costs as development progresses for various fields in the concession.

Confirms €3m for Podere Maiar 1dir production (17% to PXOG = £451k @ 1.13 €/£, funded by £480k loan notes). Multiple approvals seem to be rate determining steps. First gas Q4/2020.

Looking ahead to East Selva (mid 2C 17Bcf, mid prospective 35Bcf, 5.9 Bcf to PXOG) and Riccardina (mid prospective 35Bcf, 5.9 to PXOG) which requires €3m seismic programme in Q2 2019 – unfunded. No doubt being discussed with Ed et al.

What seems quite remarkable is that Italy apparently imports 91% of its gas the majority from Russia. Surely incentive for a speed-up of the bureaucracy, particularly as the gas price is up to €0.3/m3.

Currently less than half of Podere Maiar 1dir in the PXOG share price and nothing for East Selva / Riccardina exploration (also nothing for Spain – any good news here and lift off!).

So we have production in Romania and gas prices rising and this pays for the run rate stuff. We have solid assets in Italy with production in 2 years plus exploration upside, and a prospective 830Bcf in Spain – apparently with preliminary MT data collected and being analysed. News here appreciated Ed.

I’m in for the duration.

IMHO / DYO / GLA

Thanks sbrown36. Yes, interesting and seems positive update, Selva overall has good potential, just need to get through the Italian bureaucracy. Will read more carefully tomorrow am …

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181107/pdf/44026x294wgsx8.pdf

IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Thanks SS459, ASX quarterly activity posts helpful - something similar should be a requirement on AIM.

Also a below the quarterly activities update from Petrel Energy which, I think, suggests some preliminary AMT data collected and being analysed - despite the 'harvest' and approval delays! Would like to know what these guys now know about Tesorillo.

"yielded good data ahead of main acquisition programme"
"field mapping has greatly improved structural interpretation"

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181031/pdf/43zv8ws2q9wmsf.pdf

IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Nplus1 closed last Thursday, Short positions now down to 1 notifiable (Trium) at 0.66%. Let's hope this is indicative of the bottom being reached and the recent trend about to reverse. Maybe even some good news in the pipeline?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BW4NPC58/

IMHO / DYOR / GLA

of our Assets …

Romania Bainet tested at 33,000 m3/day (RNS 27/11/17), now producing at ‘experimental’ 0.7mmscf/day = 19,821 m3/day (RNS 17/09/18) – so upside here
Peterhouse valuation (02/07/18 page 4) = 0.13p
Grancesti or other exploration not included.

Italy Podere Gallina Selva tested at 148,000 m3/day (RNS 19/01/18)
Now funded through to production via Loan Notes (RNS 12/10/18)
Peterhouse valuation 0.34p (plus 0.25p for further exploration).

Spain Tesorillo 830BCF mid case (PXOG up to 49.9% with stage 3 funding)
Peterhouse say 1.5p (on the mid case including likely development costs and based on a 10% chance of success) – potential 2TCF so significant upside potential

So reasonably solid 0.47p, add more Italy for 0.72p and add a potential 1.5p for Spain as things stand – but remember that is based on the CoS of 10% for risk and the high case is 2TCF.

All the above from company sources.

So why are we at 0.3p? Maybe just needs a decent update on Italy from PVE/PVO and some positive news on Spain. Then lift off – count down in progress!

IMHO / DYO / GLA

Drewky, agree should be funded for Spain stage 2 with this year's budget, just looked a bit 'tight based on h1 run rate - not a scare, just a point of detail particularly as Romania cash about to start coming in.

I also agree that a Grancesti work over would make sense to build up income and have clear separation of self sustaining run rate from new investment in the opportunities offered by further Italy exploration and Spain stage 3.

All in all, very positive on the situation, despite significant under valuation (for now) and I'm hanging on to my shares for many multiples of upward movement.

AIMHO / DYOR / GLA

We need to make the 2nd payment on Spain of €280k (~£245k) for 15% before the end of 2018 (RNS 19/12/17) to enable progression to a test well which requires the 3rd / final €1725k (~£1513k) for 49.9% before the midway point of the sixth year of the licence (also an estimated ~$4m drill cost). In the meantime the AMT survey work is commissioned to partners and hopefully we should see some preliminary results soon. I do have a couple of questions though, any insights appreciated …
- I am assuming that we would not progress to 15% without some positive preliminary AMT results and we are not waiting for further approvals (e.g. environmental) for the survey to commence?
- Is the €280k for 15% allocated against the mid-year cash balance, or does it require further funding (recent loan notes are just for Italy)?

Market cap well under asset value of just Romania and Italy (not to mention Italy exploration) and Spain could be the real game changer.

AIMHO / DYOR / GLA

Ed interviewed at Momentous on YouTube …
https://t.co/7Ra0m4lM1d

Definitely worth a watch and careful listen. Some of the key points …

Net €60k / month from Romania.

Cash burn to "virtually nothing" – good news!

Talking about funding - "trade assets" (sell something, farm out ???), and "monetise cash flow for small loan" - wonder if we can avoid another (at least large) placing?

Give market a "good update" on Spain (hope he means good news and not just thorough, but this as well!). Maybe "new CPR".

Made the point that East Selva is 2 x Selva/Podere Maiar, wonder if (some / all) Italy assets might be sold to fund Spain. (Peterhouse valuation of Italy - £4.5m + £3.2m exploration = £7.7m, enough to fund a Spain drill and investment to 49%?)

Stage 2 of Tesorillo requires €280k by end-Dec, is this expenditure allocated from the £489k mid-year cash balance? Presumably this investment to 15% would not be made without encouraging preliminary AMT survey results.

Here’s hoping for some positive news and big improvement in sentiment and SP.

IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Good news and should significantly help with co. running costs.
From half-year financials – 6 month admin expenses = £539k, ~£90k/month, cash at end-June = £489k, so will need more funding by year end (not a negative point).
From Romania RNS – 0.7mmscf (20,000m3)/day @ EUR 6 x 50% = EUR 2100/day – anyone any idea of local taxes and other deductions? We know from previous RNSs that flow rate should be 33,000m3 or better, so more to come soon.
Let’s say (feel free to suggest better numbers) that we will soon be generating £1800/day net = £54k/month, so we’re half the way to being self-sustaining excl. the EUR280k for 15% of Spain and other new exploration or acquisitions etc.
I think by demonstrating that the co. is heading towards being self-sufficient for run-rate costs will be a great positive in persuading investors (or potential partners, through whatever approach or constructs) to fund Spain, more Italy exploration and in the meantime the balance of co. running costs. Bringing Italy back into 2019 would help enormously.
Initial Spain AMT results next? Keep the news rolling.
IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Petrel Energy have posted a 'Tesorillo Project Presentation' on ASX 23/08/18. Looks quite positive, saying MT survey underway from mid-September.
http://www.petrelenergy.com/irm/PDF/2066_0/TesorilloProjectPresentation
Also note that the earlier Petrel placement was successful - so they are funded for now.

Romania news imminent (lowpay - thanks for the update), pipeline being connected, 1 permit to go.

Italy news imminent, more exploration hopefully.
Again note PVO funded through PVE convertible notes.

Next few weeks could be quite exciting.

IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Total shares in issue = 1,213,593,136 and current Share Options = 95,653,810, Total = 1,309,246,946 (plus 8,500,000 warrants). So you can work out the percentages from 1213.6m or 1309.2m fully diluted.
Among the options Ed has 16.9m at 0.52p which expire in Nov 2020 and just under 6m that require 5p - now that would be just about acceptable!
DYOR / GLA

Trying to put some numbers behind the fabled ~£0.5bn valuation, please feel free to correct …

Romania - 33,000 m3/day (RNS 27/11/17) at Eur0.2 x 350 days = Eur2.310m x 50% = Euro 1.155, Eur/GBP£ 1.12 = GBP£1.031m per year, Peterhouse say worth 0.13p / share.

Italy - 148,000 m3/day (RNS 19/01/18) at Eur0.2/m3 x 350 days = Eur10.360m x 17% = Eur1.761m, Euro/GBP£ 1.12 = GBP£1.572m per year, Peterhouse say worth 0.34p / share, but Ed suggesting 200,000 m3 and we are expecting more exploration imminently.

I think the gas price might be nearer Eur0.25 per M3?

Spain – Peterhouse say 1.5p / share, so total 2.2p, but where does the 1.5p come from – mid case 830BCF (49.9% to PXOG), NPV and commercial risk calculation, and then a 10% CoS (Chance of Success) is applied to give 1.5p, if you made the CoS 100% you get a total of ~17p / share, if you take the high case of 2289BCF with 100% CoS then you get ~40p / share, this is the ~£500m value that has been mentioned. Remember Eur280k for 15% (should be) funded, Eur1725k for 49.9% not funded – nor is the test drill (~$4m?). So something will happen for Spain stage 3 – partner deal or sale??? In the meantime bring on the AMT survey.

IMHO / DYO / GLA

BoD said they are funded for 2018 Activities. If they have a plan and a budget then this should cover Co. run rate stuff, shares of Romania and Italy costs and everything in the Spain RNS today - AMT, environment, permits, etc. and also the Eur280k to take us to 15%.
It will not include the Eur 1725k to take us to 49.9% or the cost of the exploration well - but I think we have until year 6 of the contract for this, which might suggest sale / farm out on positive AMT results, rather than try and become a production Co. (we are an 'Investment Co. after all).
Back to plans and budgets - some concern about delay in Romania revenue (Q2 to Q3), may mean they don't quite have the cash anticipated?
Any thoughts?
IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Where does 2.22p come from? My take ...
Page 4 - Italy 0.34p + Italy Exploration 0.25p + Romania 0.13p (note - no Romania Exploration) + Spain 1.5p (more on this below) + Other (net) 0.01 = 2.23p (rounding).
Importantly we don't have CPR's, so conservative estimates on reservoir size / longevity, and no Romania exploration.
Skipping to page 29 for the origins of the Spain 1.5p.
Taking the mid case of 830BCF (yes, I know we all want 2TCF+), and 49.9% ownership gives us 414BCF.
Then the really significant thing a 10% CoS (Chance of Success) factor to give 41BCF - with pricing, NPV, commercials this gives a value of EUR22.3m @ 1.14 EUR/GBP = £19.5m / 1309.2m shares = 1.5p.
So the 10% looks to me like a fairly (?) arbitrary risk factor for Peterhouse's so called ' Sophisticated Investors' who may be taking a portfolio approach to investing across several risky opportunities?
i.e. the 10% is not real, the outcome for PXOG standalone will be 0% or 100% on some resource - 220BCF (low), 830BCF (mid), 2289BCF (high), based on the 2015 NSAI report. So for Spain the 1.5p @ 10% CoS could be 15p @ 100% CoS (i.e. actual success) on the mid range of 830BCF.
Solid updates for Italy and Romania (CPR, reservoir life, licences, production, exploration, etc.) apart, the really big deal is Spain stage 2 - EUR280k and the AMT survey in H2 to 'find the hydrocarbons'!
Come on PXOG - get Italy, Romania back on timescale, and get on with Spain AMT and make that CoS factor as close to 100% as possible.
The Peterhouse report is good stuff, lots of facts (as far as they can be) and good explanation of the valuation model, will be looking to see this updated as the news flows - remember those 'value triggers' Ed.
Exciting times, let's hope the sp starts to reflect the real opportunity.
IMHO / DYOR / GLA

Yes, these are the guys who stumped up AUD$1m for convertible loan notes and already own a large chunk of Pve equity. Good to see our major partner for Italy so committed.
Looking forward to positive news on Romania and Spain!
Imho / dyor / gla

Po Valley Energy (PVE - own 100% of PVO, who have 63% of our Italy concession, PXOG 17%, UOG 20%) completed on the AUD$2.5m loan notes earlier today (Australia time) with 2 directors contributing AUD$1m between them.. This was originally announced on 26/4/18 - the important point for us, I think, was the specifically noted intention that this money would be used in part (along with 2 other projects) to bring Selva forward to production. So hopefully our major partner fully funded for Italy.
Romania revenue soon (£1m+ pa), Italy by end of next year (£1.5m+ pa) - see my rather longer posts of 20/06/18. So soon both a production and exploration (Spain could be big, more in Italy?) company.
Let's hope for that promised news flow / value triggers soon (please Ed).
IMHO / DYOR / GLA

- The 'big ticket' items in 2017 were 'Investing Activities' £1.5m (page 16) - not likely to be more than the £245k for Spain in 2018 (?), and 'cost of shares issued' £239k (page 16) - hopefully not to be repeated in 2018? - The 'Operational' costs are the big unknown (to me), particularly any significant Spain costs - if I guess at £1m for these plus the admin stuff then this gives a total of £500k (salaries) + £245k (Spain 2nd round) + the £1m (guess at all the rest) = £1745k vs £1965k cash to start? So if we end up at the end of 2018 with a few £'s in the bank and earning revenue from Romania we should be well positioned for 2019 and beyond, i.e. potentially self sustaining through to 2020 when Italy kicks in and maybe (best case!) we can potentially envisage paying the £1.5m for 49% of Spain without further dilution - if maybe some short-term borrowing backed by productive assets and cash flow??? Too 'rose tinted'? Please help with new or corrected 'facts' if interested in developing this further into a more complete valuation model with the benefit of considered views. Please don't take what I have described as 'facts' as actual facts. Please do not make any investment decisions on this post - for discussion only. Please do your own research. GLA

The post from Kenrun earlier today mentioning 'research' done prompted me to make my first ever post with the intention of seeking your assistance in developing some kind of 'fact based' model for PXOG - as far as possible based on info in the public domain and any deeper 'insights' anyone may care to share. First thing to say is please challenge / correct my 'facts' with a view to developing a better model of PXOG and please don't assume my 'facts' are correct, i.e. DYOR. I should say that I am invested in PXOG holding about 0.2% of issued shares at an average of circa 0.48p - so somewhat envious of new investors, but well aware there will be many with higher averages. Here goes ... Italy - 148,000 m3/day (RNS 19/01/18) at Euro0.2/m3 x 350 days (for 2 weeks downtime) = Euro10.360m x 17% (ownership) = Euro1.761m, Euro/GBP£ 1.14 = GBP£1.545m per year (But this is 18 months away, so from Q1/2020?) Romania - 33,000 m3/day (RNS 27/11/17) at Euro0.2 x 350 days = Euro2.310m x 50% = Euro 1.155, Euro/GBP£ 1.14 = GBP£1.013m per year (Big question is when does the revenue flow start - let's hope Q4/2018?) Gas price in Europe estimated at Euro0.2/m3 is an average from various sources earlier in the year - please feel free to update. Needing CPR's etc. - for reservoir size, expansion prospect and longevity, and more detail on equipment specs for real flow rates - any thoughts here? So let's say we have GBP£1m gross revenue from 2019 onwards from Romania, with this likely to more than double from 2020 assuming Italy goes into production. Big question is then do we have the cash to get through 2018 and 2019 without another placing or borrowing? From the annual report for year ended 2017 ... Note 17 page 31 - Cash and receivables = £855k, payables = £90k, so net cash = £765k Note 19 page 32 - Cash raised through placing of 200m shares at 0.6p = £1.2m (and this does say fully funded for 'basic 2018 work programme') So in January 2018 we had £1,965k cash - please feel free to correct Outgoings ... Note 5 page 23 - Salary costs in 2017 = £327k, so let's say £500k in 2018 (Ed does deserve an increase on his meager £111k + benefits - note 22 page 36), plus new hires? We need to make (at least) the 2nd payment on Spain of Euro280k = £245k (for 15%) before the end of 2018 (RNS 19/12/17), for geology / licences / equipment etc. ahead of actual well drilling - which I think requires the 3rd / final Euro1725k = £1513k (for 49.9%) before the midway point of the sixth year of the licence - does this mean by mid-2023? Other outgoings (need some help here) will include ... - Our share of Italy and Romania Operational costs paid to our partners and contractors etc. - In 2017 'Operating Activities' were £972k (page 16) - Anything we need to pay to national or local governments? - Our Office, Legal and Audit costs etc. - The 'big ticket' items in 2017 were 'Investing Activi