Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

Got it. Milken doc pre-dates the Faron announcement. For Interferon beta-1a delivered intravenously.
Thanks

Milken Institute Covid-19 Treatment and Vaccine Tracker
https://milkeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/Covid19%20Tracker-4-1-WEB.pdf
Click on the trial links in the pdf for details. Interferon mentioned in items …
31, 32, 66, 80 – “Lopinavir/ritonavir plus Interferon ß-1a”, “Interferon ß1a will be administered subcutaneously at the dose of 44 µg for a total of 3 doses in 6 days (day 1, day 3, day 6).”
Injected.

35 – Interferon alpha

36 – “Ganovo+ritonavir with or without interferon nebulization”, “With or without spray inhalation of interferon, 50µg / time for adults, twice a day up to 14 days.”
China, nebulized, but can’t see which ‘flavour’ of Interferon?

69 – “peginterferon alfa-2b”
China, no detail? Hepatitis B/C treatment?

70 – “Novaferon”, “the patients were given Novaferon Atomization inhalation, 20ug each time, twice a day, 7-14 days.”
China, looks like it is lab made based on interferon-alpha2b???

71 – SNG001
‘The One’!

Any ‘bio’ experts care to comment, anyone aware of any other trials?
Looks to me like our trial is very focused, defined, organised, regulated, etc. and seems to be the only nebulized application of Interferon beta-1a? (Some question marks over Chinese trials apart).
Would stress not an expert so please DYOR.
GLA

From, I think, reliable sources, with short extracts.
NHS Health Research Authority
https://www.hra.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/approved-covid-19-research/281317/
IFN-ß protects cells against the MERS and SARS coronaviruses (close relatives of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19). SNG001 is an inhaled formulation of interferon beta-1a it is currently in Phase II clinical trials for COPD patients. Synairgen has conducted randomised placebo controlled clinical trials of SNG001 involving >200 asthma and COPD patients.
These trials have shown that SNG001 has:
• been well tolerated during virus infections
• enhanced antiviral activity in the lungs (measured in sputum and blood samples)
• provided significant lung function benefit over placebo in asthma in two Phase II trials.
We believe SNG001 could help prevent worsening or accelerate recovery of severe lower respiratory tract illness in COVID-19 patients.

National Institute for Health Research
https://www.nihr.ac.uk/covid-19/urgent-public-health-studies-covid-19.htm
The purpose of this study is to confirm that SNG001 can prevent/limit the worsening of LRT illness in the context of SARS-CoV-2. Safety and efficacy will be assessed.

University Hospital Southampton
https://www.uhs.nhs.uk/ClinicalResearchinSouthampton/Research/COVID-19/COVID-19-studies.aspx
SG016
A randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial to determine the safety and efficacy of inhaled SNG001 (IFN-ß1a for nebulisation) for the treatment of patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

University Hospitals of Leicester
https://www.leicestersresearch.nhs.uk/about-us-2/covid-19-and-clinical-research/covid-19-trials/
SARS Cov-2 infection study
In this clinical trial, patients who have confirmed COVID-19 and pneumonia will be given either a nebulised version of interferon beta (a naturally-occurring protein that supports anti-viral responses in the body) or a placebo (‘dummy’ medicine).
STATUS: Sponsor green light; due to start recruiting 06.04.20

Nottingham University Hospitals
https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/nottingham-professor-potential-benefits-drug-3964958
"The idea behind the trial is that, by giving more of this molecule to the lung, this could help reduce the severity of infection with Covid-19, especially in those people who have reduced immune responses to the virus," said Prof Hall.

EU Clinical trials for Covid-19 (half way down first page)
https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/search?query=covid-19&page=1

Please DYOR and please post other sign-ups or progress reports.
GLA

See today’s RNS from UOG, re Italy – “In Italy, although Selva is continuing to progress through the approval process, this process has understandably slowed with the Government's critical focus on fighting the Covid 19 epidemic, and the target for first gas from the field is now H1 2021.”
So this is a little ‘at odds’ with PVE’s optimism conveyed in my previous post. You will see that UOG are keen to defer their share of the cash required for Selva production. They have also announced cost savings.
I do think that UOG’s initiative in posting an ‘Operational & Corporate Update’ is sensible. Perhaps Ed should consider a similar update? As well as ‘mixed messages’ on Italy, we are waiting for the El Romeral transfer and the Tesorillo CPR update. Would also be good to know that our guys keeping well.
GLA and please DYOR

PVE accounts posted on ASX yesterday …
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200401/pdf/44glb3mw82wqyb.pdf
Page 6 – para near bottom offers some encouragement, for example …
“we have seen evidence that the Italian Ministries continue to be operational therefore we do not expect significant delays in the ongoing environmental approvals for Selva Malvezzi ...”. “Importantly, the oil and gas industry was declared an “essential service” by the Italian government underpinning its strategic importance to the Italian economy.”
Let’s hope the PVE/PVO team stay well and deliver for us.
GLA

Good questions. First thing to say is please DYOR, a lot of uncertainty just now.
Most obviously, it’s clear that there will be delays in both Italy and Spain.
We raised £720k less costs, for the sake of argument let’s say £650k net.
We have revenue from Romania – how much will depend on a number of factors such as output, contract price with grid, exchange rates, opex share with Raffles, etc. My guess (DYOR) is £20k-£30k / month to PXOG.
Important question is whether revenue from Romania is sufficient to keep the co. running without dipping into the raise money, which was primarily for El Romeral.
We have interest to pay on loan notes mid-year. Re-payment also starts at the year-end, by which time we were expecting to have Italy production – which now seems at risk. While this is a concern, it should be manageable for a while (but DYOR).
We have €375k to pay for 49.9% of El Romeral, waiting for the transfer approval (which was meant to be imminent, but who knows now?) and then we start earning some revenue (our share of ~€800k pa). Then the idea was to ramp up electricity generation (from current 22% utilisation) which will eventually require more gas – so drill (say) a couple of low risk targets.
The final approval for Selva was also expected ‘imminently’, again now uncertain. Approval would have triggered a requirement for €400k to PVE/PVO for production infrastructure (total €2.3m). My expectation was that this would be funded by a further issue of loan notes, as opposed to working capital (again DYOR)?
I expect that Ed will have taken measures to minimise co. running costs during the (desperately unfortunate and unforeseen) ‘lockdown’. We should be ‘living’ on Romania and not burning raise money. Will need to reassess timelines when ‘lockdowns’ lifted, but hopefully government across Europe will want to stimulate their economies and try and avoid a ‘slump’. As noted before – Italy imports gas from Russia and Spain from North Africa and shipped in LNG.
All IMHO, GLA

Synairgen website shows Leonard Licht holding 10,700,00 shares, RNS says “now holds 9,720,00”.
By my arithmetic he has sold 980,000.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200324/pdf/44gbfpcymk2rlg.pdf
With apologies for reporting Aussie news again, WGO Directors putting co. and shareholders first by reducing salaries by 50% as a result of CV impact from April through June. Let’s hope that Ed is implementing similar measures to ensure PXOG minimises cash burn in these difficult times.
GLA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200323/pdf/44g9kq647lwqq2.pdf
STX response to WGO rejection, interesting that they note …
“The proposal also indicates a willingness to explore structures that would allow Warrego shareholders to continue to retain 100% ownership or exposure to Warrego’s non-Australian (Spanish) assets”.
Now wouldn’t that be good, a residual WGO Spain only co. with the benefit of sale proceeds from West Erregulla asset? Where would that leave PXOG with 49.9% of El Romeral and valuable option for going up to 49.9% of Tesorillo?
GLA and please DYOR

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200323/pdf/44g96rr41nyfvg.pdf
STX (ASX) have expressed interest in Spain partner WGO (ASX). WGO have rejected this all share offer, but make it clear they are “prepared to engage on any other proposals which are received in the future, whether from Strike or any other third party …”.
WGO note that the proposal “also undervalues Warrego’s other valuable assets, including its Tesorillo project in Spain”.
Let’s see how this develops.
GLA

Just to echo the sentiment, trust Ed et al doing well, also best wishes to partners PVE/PVO and WGO/Tarba team and the Raffles guys in Romania.
When we get through this, and we will, perhaps there will be a greater focus on self-sufficiency? Remember Italy importing nearly 50% of gas from Russia and Spain reliant on imports over the pipeline from North Africa plus shipping in LNG.
A question regarding El Romeral while we wait for the transfer approval, the ‘effective’ date of this is July 2019, so does this mean we get the revenue (shared with WGO/Tarba) back-dated to then?
GLA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200318/pdf/44g55ylb4fmq5n.pdf
Good one broad, direct link to ASX pdf above, a few highlights …
Slide 24 – re Tesorillo “potential to spud by year end” .
Slide 25 – re El Romeral “planning to drill up to 3 new wells”.
Slide 26 – re El Romeral “Potential to resume full [power generation] utilisation possibly with only 1 new well”.
Slide 30 – re El Romeral “Targeting 1H 2020 for El Romeral acquisition completion”.
Focus on El Romeral for revenue.
Positive update at difficult time.
With no travel and Ed and team ‘confined to barracks’ might be a good time to be pulling together an updated PXOG investor presentation, maybe waiting for Italy approval and El Romeral transfer ‘trigger points’?
GLA

Worth keeping an eye on PVE (ASX, Podere Gallina permit operator, PXOG 17%, UOG 20%). The rest of PVE’s exploration permits are in Italy. PVE SP @ 5.4c (Aus) holding up, also note they are >50% owned by board. The last quarterly report showed only €46k cash, but a loan facility of €150k. Also indicated that the final EIA decree (‘green light’ for production) was expected in Q2/2020 – we’ll see. While they may need some working capital to continue, would expect they will wait for the approval before raising the final capex required of ~€2.3m (€400k to PXOG). Guess there is a good chance of a delay as things stand, so hopefully we’ll be ‘running lean’ on Italy (no flights anyway!). Let’s hope that the folks over there get through this CV crisis as soon as possible – not just self-interest.
In the meantime expecting to hear about the final transfer of El Romeral and plans to ramp up electricity generation and drill new wells, not to mention an update on Tesorillo. Again, worth watching the other Aussie partner and 85% / 50.1% owner of Tarba (Tesorillo / El Romeral respectively) with PXOG holding the balance. WGO are asset rich (50% of 1.2TCF West Erregulla), have some cash, but speculation that not enough for more drilling. They are also >50% owned by board, one of whom – Dennis Donald, is moving to Aus to ‘manage’ (maybe sell?) the business there. Duncan MacNiven, the other major shareholder and director, was one of the guys pictured with Ed on a visit to Spain in May last year – maybe he’s running Tarba? You can see on Twitter that Tarba are very active in building the ‘Eco gas’ concept (along with solar, hydrogen, etc.!), no doubt all good for the cause.
Shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that progress will slow down for a few months, we are not unique in this respect. On balance, IMHO, onshore gas looks like a better fossil fuel play than most. I’m in for the long run.
GLA and please DYOR

Couple of trades missed on LSE today (I think XOFF means ‘off exchange’, i.e. party-to-party?) …
16:11:32 03-Mar-2020 0.11 GBX 3,200,000 3,648.00 Off-book XOFF
16:11:08 03-Mar-2020 0.11 GBX 3,200,000 3,552.00 Off-book XOFF
With 5m sell yesterday, just wonder if some of Ed’s HNW mates that took placement shares @ 0.12p are thinking they can make some money more quickly in more ‘mainstream’ co.’s given current market volatility? Might explain the recent retrace?
As far as I can see, nothing has changed – just waiting for confirmation of El Romeral transfer and final approval on Italy, not to mention an overdue update on Tesorillo. (Oh, and Spain and Italy continue to import natural gas).
GLA

Good find. All the more reason to pull all this together into an updated, PXOG sponsored, 'Peterhouse' (or similar) report. Lot's of value yet to be realised in SP. GLA

Broad, thanks and apologies for my misunderstanding, cheers

Broad, thanks and apologies for my misunderstanding, cheers

broad, I think 'recommending' in the sense of flagging as 'buy' etc. is really akin to advice, which I won't do. Investing in AIM is inherently risky and so I think everyone should DYOR and determine their own level of acceptable the risk. I simply try to pull together info from published material from PXOG, partners and related parties. Have been a holder since Dec 2017, have only increased since then and not (as yet) sold any shares. Will be hanging on for some real return. Good luck.

Peterhouse July 2018 – 2.2p fully diluted (on 1213.6m shares plus 95.6m options), valuation includes 10% CoS and 50% commercial risk for Tesorillo. What’s changed?
More shares issued, now 2213.6m (plus options). Also £480k Loan Notes (with warrants). OK, dilution and debt, but used to keep the company running and improve / increase assets.
Various delays – Italy, Spain. Bainet-West ‘duster’. On the plus side ...
Romania – some revenue.
Italy – reserves confirmed, plus upgraded Contingent Resources (2C) and Prospective Resources (2U), one more approval pending, some funding, and then production / revenue. Should see a step up if all goes to plan.
El Romeral – we have a gas producing and electricity generating asset. Drilling to follow for increased capacity utilisation and revenue.
Tesorillo – lots of work (should have been!) done with historical data re-processing and G&G integration, just waiting for CPR update and well decisions. Note that original struggling partner PRL are gone and replaced by WGO (who have a 50% share of a 1.2TCF 2C resource in Western Australia and some cash) and seem very interested in Spain – so may be driving the timeline. Depending on CPR, potential for significant re-rate.
What else – recent director buys, warrants / options due Oct / Nov this year @ 0.6p / 0.52p respectively should motivate? PXOG presentation says “huge potential NPV uplift (>€0.4B)”, if this really means ~£333m then that would be ~15p if fully realised in sp! Wonder what the Tesorillo CPR assumptions are in this?
Really need an update to the Peterhouse presentation pulling all the facts and updates together. As things stand value would seem to lie somewhere between the current ~0.14p and ~15p. Not far to go then, haha!
Above from my research (so big health warning!), i.e. please DYOR and GLA

El Romeral transfer to Tarba going through, then start the process of ramping up from 22% to ~100% generating capacity. Work to do on permits to drill PUDs or Prospects? €800k pa gross revenue between us and WGO via Tarba. Margins probably fairly low, but this on the 22%, so more revenue and economies of scale to come.
PVE to deliver final approval for Selva, then last round of financing (~€400k to PXOG) for infrastructure, then we’re producing! Step change up in revenue.
Tesorillo updated CPR and well decision to come later in the year (?) after more G&G. Hopefully the time and effort spent will deliver a CPR with much better CoS (currently only 10%!). Will be keeping an eye on WGO for indications on timing here. Tesorillo potential is huge.
Anything happening in Romania?
Very positive movement in last few days, director buys demonstrate confidence and enlightened self-interest! Some way to go to reasonable valuation though (IMHO of course), but great progress.
GLA and please DYOR