Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

https://soundcloud.com/doc-h-4/dlc-6-12-hard-markets-require

PXOG gets a brief mention from Doc H (at 16:15 in). Think it was positive? Though he’s talking about a mining co. (MNRG) at the same time, so a bit confusing (at least for me!).
Couple of 5m (share!) buys yesterday, though 1 of them seems to have been missed by LSE, trades from London Stock Exchange below. Would really like this to be Director buys.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00BW4NPC58GBGBXAMSM&formName=frmRow&upToRow=10

Now in meteorological Winter, so Autumn MT work in Spain should be done and CPR underway (?), though maybe Ed’s waiting for the solstice before updating us? News on all fronts overdue.
Please DYOR and GLA

https://www.fca.org.uk/static/documents/short-positions-daily-update.xls

When I last looked at short tracker about 3 weeks ago could have sworn Trium were showing a 0.66% position in PXOG. Now nothing. The history tab on the FCA short positions update spreadsheet (link above) suggests Trium opened a position on 11/09/17 and closed on 09/11/17. Hmm, odd, or just misreading short tracker?
GLA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191127/pdf/44c03rcb724q0m.pdf

Latest WGO presentation. Positive on Spain, though nothing really new. Mentions selling gas locally for Power, Industry and Residential, support for ‘Spanish government greenhouse obligations’ and also continuing the ‘local outreach programme’ – consistent with current Tarba activity.
GLA

Unusual level of activity from the Tarba guys – maybe they’ve finished the G&G work and handed this over for the CPR update? Now time to continue building the wider case for permitting etc.? Anyway, some good points – Spanish gas imports up (why not use the local supply?), and gas a much less polluting energy source (key transition resource over next ~20 years while infrastructure moved to wind, solar, hydro, etc.?).
http://tarbaenergia.com/noticias/
https://twitter.com/energiatarba?lang=en
News well overdue.
GLA

Hasn’t really been too leaky in the past, but nothing lasts. Could be …
Pump before raise – for Granicesti, for Spain (€1725k for 49.9%), other?
Italy or Spain news?
Director buys?
Takeover?
Other – what?
Total speculation on my part, not being leaked on!
Please DYOR and GLA

Tarba guys back ‘online’, first update since 30th May. Hopefully they’ve been working hard over the summer on doing more AMT work and G&G integration, maybe get the revised CPR soon?

http://tarbaenergia.com/noticias/

Positive message about the importance of gas as the key transition fuel to carbon neutrality by 2050. And specifically mentions the impact on coal producing regions of Spain.

Tesorillo is now the key missing component in WGO’s overall valuation following their success at West Erregulla. From the Bridge Street update (11/11/19, below) Tesorillo only contributing AUD$0.04 per share due to the 5% risk applied (as per Peterhouse 10% geology x 50% commercial), unrisked showing AUD$0.77 – I think on their (eventual) 50.1% and 708m shares and GBP:AUD 0.55 that would be around ~£300m. So would be about the same for us, eh …?, Gotta be positive …! Please DYOR.

https://warregoenergy.com/uploads/WGO20191111%20Resource%20update.pdf

Time for some “High impact news flow” from the “Experienced management” that demonstrates the “Additional Upside” from the “Rapidly growing portfolio of late stage projects” and “Company-making resources” …?
GLA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191111/pdf/44bfw6119vtjpp.pdf
WGO (and STX) have 1.2 TCF 2C between them. Can't be bad? Lot's of cash raising capacity, or maybe a takeover opportunity? And WGO seem quite keen on Spain.
Make your own speculations and draw your own conclusions!
GLA

Couple of thoughts. Knows about old tractors, therefore maybe good with spanners, need spanners on O&G rigs? Also, being a farmer, knows about the timing of harvests!? While we wait... haha.
GLA

Similar story re Italy (from PVE quarterly report), i.e. bureaucratic delays. Now not expecting approvals until into 2020.

News on Spain CPR, or anything else positive for that matter (Granicesti?), would be helpful just now!

In the meantime, please Ed, run it lean, oh, and buy some shares!

GLA

West Australia Perth Basin area is a very significant area for large-scale O&G exploration, development and production. Last year Mitsui acquired AWE (inc. Waitsia, ~400Bcf) for AUD$~600m. WGO (with STX) are now ‘in play’ in a big way with next step to update Contingent Resources (potential TCF scale). Rumours around WGO include – merge with STX to become mid-size operator, or sale of WGO (maybe also STX) to a major.

WGO raised AUD$12m in September, second on the list for spending – “exploration and appraisal programme in Spain”. Not saying they won’t do another raise, maybe just wait for the 2C number, then even more to spend on Spain – maybe enough to take out the ‘Prospextor’ camping out with a 49.9% option (hahha).
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190916/pdf/448k7ktzzf6m40.pdf

WGO guys consistently positive about Spain. Can’t really see a downside for PXOG, but please DYOR.
GLA

WGO report “exceptional flow test results at West Erregulla …”. SP up 12% at time of writing.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191025/pdf/449vqfgjqpgtqg.pdf

So our partner for Spain (WGO own Tarba) is heading in the direction of having very significant cash raising capability. Whatever future direction they are planning (sale, merger, etc.) they will want to maximise their overall asset value – and the missing piece is Spain.
Over to Ed and the Tarba guys to turnaround a decent CPR for Tesorillo. The €1725k to go from 15% to 49.9% could soon start to look like ‘small change’. Guess we all have our price – anyway here’s hoping …
Please DYOR.
GLA

A couple of (quite separate) thoughts for what they’re worth (health warnings, not advice, DYOR, etc.) …

Regarding Warrego – judging by their (STX’s) last announcement looks like a couple of weeks plus or minus before flow test results at West Erregulla. Lot of speculation around what happens to WGO after these results – merger, acquisition etc. Would significantly add to the interest if strong flow test results coincided with a positive update on Spain – maybe too conspiratorial? But would certainly put PXOG in the spotlight with our option to go up to 49.9% for €1725k. Would a big O&G co. really want a scruffy little ‘prospextor’ owning 49.9% of their (potentially very large) Spanish back yard?

Regarding our Italian partners PVE – from the CGG CPR for the Podere Gallina licence. For Selva, PVE have 8.4Bcf valued at €17.3m (~£15.3m) and PXOG have ~2.3Bcf valued at ~€4.7m (~£4.1m). PVE mcap is AUD~$32m (~£17.5m) or 1.1x Selva only. PXOG mcap is ~£1.6m or ~0.4x just Selva. OK, both companies have other assets – PVE have 36.6Bcf reserves at Teodorico, so total 45Bcf reserves. But Teodorico is offshore, will cost €53.7m for production targeted for 2021, and so how realistic a project is this – maybe less likely to deliver than Tesorillo? For this ‘thought experiment’, if we just assumed both PVE and PXOG are valued on Selva, then PXOG are way low on an absolute and comparative basis! And not even counting our Romania production.

Numbers from posted announcements and presentations, please check.
Just a bit of fun. GLA.

Firstly some positivity from the WGO half-year report …
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191001/pdf/44929j0dvfbszt.pdf

“The recently completed reverse acquisition by WEUK will allow the Company to fully exploit the potential of its projects in the Perth Basin, Western Australia and the Tesorillo project ...” “Tarba Energia SRL, the local subsidiary which is 85% owned by the Company, will seek to complete the full programme in 2019 and in any event, as soon as possible.” “The Group intends to continue its exploration, development and production activities on its Tesorillo Spain project … “

Secondly the reality check …
Given director participation in WGO’s raise I see no excuse (inside info, closed periods etc.) for our guys not to be buying just now. Director participation in PVE’s last raise also significant. Time for PXOG directors to demonstrate the same level of confidence as our partners.

When do we get the Italy update hinted at in Ed’s recent VOX interview? What next for Romania – Granicesti not recently mentioned? At Tesorillo more MT data capture in the ‘autumn’ (err, so now?), more G&G integration, then CPR? Clearly need a new plan covering Romania post Bainet-West, Italy timescales (bureaucracy status and all), and Spain where the CPR should have been done already.

How much revenue from Romania Bainet-1 – presumably coming in to Massey, maybe some hidden in accounting Receivables? Cash as at end-Aug £319k, plus Romania income, less ‘burn rate’ – when do we run out? No more revenue until Selva (Q4 2020?) and more to spend before production, so options …
More shares – need 500m for ~£400k as things stand?
More loan notes – I think not unreasonable for Selva?
Asset sales, Spain deal to reduce 49% option (WGO have money), farm-out, etc.?

My preference – run lean through to Selva production, do the Spain G&G integration and CPR update carefully and thoroughly. Assuming a good result, do a good deal for cash (WGO buy out some or all of the +34% to 49% increase option, agree with loadsamoneeeey, but want something – actually quite a lot, for the efforts and likely value increase to date!) and keeps us with some ownership but out of any commitment to funding the path to production.

Stay on strategy – active investor, use finance / geology / project management skills to improve assets, pay a share of costs and take a cut of revenue, don’t try to become an Operator.
GLA, please DYOR

A bit more info on Spain from WGO’s latest presentation …
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190911/pdf/448fpj76kpzjmn.pdf
See pages 20-23. Particularly like “Additional prospects & leads identified”. Also seems we’ve got “satellite imagery”!

What’s clear is that information on Spain is building, this presentation has more detail than the last one from 30/08/19 (but please DYOR and draw your own conclusions). Also, does look like WGO are making a lot of effort to get noticed, can only speculate as to the reason!

So why the little ‘blip’ up on Monday …
News expected on Spain?
Interest in Romania after RBD’s RNS on Monday – haven’t had any news recently on Granicesti land access issue and ‘workover’ plan?
All the usual speculation about pre-placement ‘pumps’?
But given we should still have enough cash left from the last raise (plus Bainet-1 income), any placement just now should have a clear purpose (beyond just keeping lights on), such as funding more work on Spain, Italy or Romania – or even something new?

We really should be due an update though.
GLA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190830/pdf/448275fnbv54xp.pdf

With apologies for not posting news direct from PXOG (err, haven’t missed anything have I?), worth looking at the latest WGO presentation particularly pages 19-20 about Spain. Highlights – “MT Survey work and reprocessing historical 2D seismic lines complete” and “Planning and preparation for 2020 well underway”, some risk flagged regarding possible delays in approvals and permitting from Spanish govt. WGO mcap now circa £130m, significant cash raising capability and might possibly be acquired, and they’re still to reach their second primary target.

In Italy I suspect PVE may well be experiencing govt. delays as no news on environmental submissions. At least they continue to be funded, with substantial director contributions and holdings. Also on Italy, no doubt other LTH’s will be keeping an eye on our co-investor UOG (20% Selva) who are currently on trading halt while they sort out their deal with RKH Egypt. Even with cash from a recent asset sale and partly backed by BP they may well need a placement or other funding – maybe the 20% Selva could be in play?

All very speculative, so please DYOR. And just to say again, I would rather be talking about news directly from PXOG – holidays over Ed, bring on the Tesorillo CPR please.
GLA

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190827/pdf/447wqy744jbxrp.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190827/pdf/447wsc0lkpvq30.pdf

WGO up +67% at time of posting. Will no doubt take a while for dust to settle, proper log tests and flow testing, etc., etc., but does look like WGO are now in a very good place. So, what will it mean for PXOG? My speculation, please DYOR.

(Key for us of course is the updated CPR for Tesorillo, plan says by end of September, I am assuming a decent result here).
a) Continue on current track, maybe (preferably) fund increase to 49.9% and 2 wells through farm out?
b) Maybe WGO merge with STX or get acquired, either way Tesorillo partner end up as much bigger entity? Would they want to let PXOG increase to 49.9% of what could be another significant asset?
c) WGO remain independent, but with new found cash raising capability decide they would like to (at least) retain their current 85% of Tesorillo?
d) Others?

All of course all highly speculative and forward looking, but I do suspect there will be some consequences, which now could be quite positive for PXOG.
GLA

Perhaps worth watching our Tesorillo partner Warrego (WGO:ASX) over the next few days. Currently on Trading Halt. Results from the primary target of the West Erregulla 2 drill in conjunction with Strike Energy expected any time. Apparently they found some gas on the way down to the primary, but not fully logged or flow tested.

This is a big and expensive drill with a potentially large target. So what could it mean for PXOG?

Speculation – if WGO are successful their cash raise capability will be significant, or they may be acquired? If not successful they may be desperate for cash. Either way seems a fair chance of some impact on PXOG?
GLA

Regarding share ownership there is always a question around how up-to-date information is, so a note of caution here, however from Morningstar today …
Beaufort Nominees – 11.38%
Barclayshare Nominees – 10.12%
Hargreaves Lansdown Nominees – 8.10%
Nomura Nominees – 4.61%
TD Direct Investing – 4.55%
HSDL Nominees – 4.32%
So total (likely) PI’s through nominee accounts managed by the above institutions (not to be confused with ‘Institutional Investors’) is circa ~43%.
From the PXOG web site …
Simon Chantler (PI, above notifiable limit) – 73m 4.5% (I believe my spelling of the said gentlemen’s name is correct!)
James Smith (NED) – 10m 0.82%
Bill Smith (NED) – 9.1m 0.75%
Edward Dawson (CEO) – 5.3m 0.43%
Richard Mays (NED) – 2.8m 0.2%
So that’s another 6.5%.
From the annual report 2017 …
B. Hale - 38.7m shares, but with the last placing would have dropped below the notifiable threshold. On 1613.6m % that would be ~2.4%. Of course the individual in question may have sold out?
So this potentially accounts for ~51.9% by my arithmetic (please check, and please DYOR!). I guess there a still a lot of PI’s who hold paper certificates.

On a somewhat different ‘tack’, I always think it’s worth keeping an eye on the partners …
UOG (20% Selva) – just sold off some North Sea licences, see RNS 17/7, up to $5m to UOG. What are they going to do with the money?
PVE (63% Selva) sp keeps moving up – now 52 week high of AUD$0.060. Is there some news expected?
WGO (currently 85% Tesorillo) – drilling just now, if they strike (pun intended), they could soon be quite rich!
Tarba guys really quiet, haven’t seen any new info on the web page and not a peep out Twitter since 30th May – if anyone has seen anything please let me know.
According to the PXOG plan the Tesorillo G&G integration should be done and we’ve started work on the updated CPR. No update yet though and no ‘leaks’ either!
Not sure what conclusions can be drawn from the above, but plenty going on.
GLA

If it wasn’t for the bit about “no commercially recoverable hydrocarbons” this would have been a reasonably positive RNS (yeh, OK, sorry, ‘tongue in cheek’). Selva 2P and 2C worth “considerably more than the current market value of the Company” and “in Spain work is underway to de-risk the huge resource base”. Given such positivity from the BoD would expect they are ‘piling in’ at the current ‘giveaway’ price – ha, ha, we’ll see!

Moving on, should be money left over from the raise (£800k), after €260k spent on the ‘duster’. Bit of a shortfall on run rate costs to cover (inc. Ed’s pay increase – think I will volunteer for the remuneration committee!), maybe hold something back for loan note interest payment at year end? Probably still some money left?

Think it would have been a good idea to have a ‘plan B’ though – such as re-deploying the rig to Granicesti for the mooted ‘workover’. So where to spend the (our) money next …?
Granicesti?
Italy 3D seismics?
“Fourth leg … outside of our portfolio …” – if so, then this really, really, really, needs to be a wise investment!
Sell the company and realise shareholder value (if sum of parts are actually worth multiples of current mcap)?
Or just keep things going on low cost basis through to Italy production?
(Haven’t mentioned Spain, just waiting for a decent update on this to understand what’s going on).
GLA

TradingLad …

Mostly agree with your sentiments expressed in last 2 posts. Good photo op indeed, but also demonstrates confidence. My nerves will be less ‘racked’ if we get a good result at Bainet West and this progresses smoothly to production.

There are some things that I find particularly interesting about this company. Firstly the (way) low value currently placed on the assets – based on the Peterhouse NPV model and compared with similar co.’s. Secondly the strategic perspective, i.e. does PXOG aspire to be a small/mid-tier operator or is the real aim to be an investment co. that sells on a part developed, but high value, asset(s). I think Ed is keeping his options open and it might go either way depending on (not least) Spain where there may be several possible outcomes, for example – farm-out / sale of single large asset or incremental development of multiple smaller reservoirs.

Do have ‘high hopes’ and will be staying invested. Very interesting few weeks and months to come.

IMHO / DYOR / GLA