Member Info for LGO-fan

Q1, until the last week was always going to be quiet and we kind of knew the sp would drift a bit. I think that most of us also knew we have a high quality BOD in place and so we all patiently waited - and we got our first big reward with the BOLT RNS. We now known that there is a lot of news around the corner on the coming days, weeks and months. M&A/news, qtrly production updates, Bonasse plan of attack, increase in Q2 in bold etc, etc, etc...SP will continue to rise for the foreseeable future IMO. GLA

it is very simple, guys: ignore them

I also think that another big reason is that bonds are now more attractive and ii are rebalancing their portfolios. Yield on RB is lower than those bonds and risk at RB is higher for reasons explained. Hard to see value right now, but wait 3-6months and it might turnaround (provided 1-2 positive qtrly, market expectations-beating results)

I agree. Personal target of mine is not too far off: £47

if you look at the 12 month broker forecast 6-9 months ago, you saw targets such 8,000p-10,000. Since the last financial update it has been more 5,000-7,200. So we are def in a "cooling off"-period

mid to long term, probably yes. Though the Mead Johnson acquisition will need to succeed. This is a totally new area for the business, with skill sets they do not have at the core of the company so it remains to be seen. Not all their acquisitions have been a success; so fingers crossed. I don’t think the sp will turnaround until the overhang of the Pfizer M&A has cleared and until we see 1-2 market beating quarters. On that basis I am waiting until mid year to get back in. I may be wrong to wait, but need some confirmation on the above for me to be totally convinced. Good luck to all holders in the mean time

clearly the short term risks materialised, driven by both ket factors. On the Pfizer M&A, I read that analysts expect a equity raise to (part)fund the deal, which is further putting negative pressure on the sp. I suspect further erosion of the SP given the 2 risk factors will be around for some time, at the very least until Q1/18 results and even that may not be sufficient if we haven't seen any white smoke by then on the M&A-front. Def a share to watch....and hopefully buy at some point, but now seem way too soon IMO

Correction: it's 6% so on the basis of �790mn its �47mn (not 50mn). Anyway that story still stands: I think international is where the growth should come from given the tough UK trading environment. The other question it raises for me is the following: - growth is driven more non branded sales (lower margins )than it is from branded sales (higher margins). In fact half year results announced in November show branded is flat and non-branded is up by +10.1% leading to group level growth of only 1.5% - Given the growth of INT'L business of +26%, that means in effect that the UK branded business is in decline, which is a worry. Or am I reading this wrong?

Sold out over the summer at �80.00.....now getting to this point where I think it may be interesting to get back into this share. Short term risks I see are: 1. Full year 2017 financials, and specifically Q4: we have had several poor qrts here and another one IMHO could create a further nose dive during Q 2018, before starting to recover subject to positive new following the integration of Mead Johnson. Positive being NR growth (not cost cutting. Any idiot can cut costs) 2. Potential Pfizer acquisition: would further massively bump up debt and put huge operational strains on the organisation. Whilst convinced great for the longer term, it will not be good for the SP in 2018. Unless the raise capital via the House Hold business. Either by selling it off or by floating it onto the market under a separate name. Thoughts?

what is it now? £50mn. 3 year cagr of 26% and it’s £100mn. vs current 790...starts to be material. But if they want to get real they need some strategic deals to explode that business.

what the view of this B.B. wrt the potential of the international division to the overall business results and sp? Appreciate small but growing at +26% At this rate it will become important; may take another 3 years before really significant but still..., A couple of strategic deals in this area and you could have a game changer... The sp did ok this week compared to the FTSE. Not all bad, no? (lone optimist who has been looking at this share for 3 years but has not invested yet)

Last-ditch talks with Carillion’s lenders at the weekend collapsed, despite emergency talks at the Cabinet Office, with Whitehall sources saying that the government refused to provide £20m that Carillion had hoped would convince the banks to put in some money....all of this for £20mn???

5-6p according to many chartists!

Read the many articles about CLLN: they all blame the BOD and their flawed strategy. CFD’s can go short or long and the choice is based on how well/badly the company is doing. If underlying business performance and its future outlook look great, they will go long. If not they short. These peeps want to make money and are happy to do it either way. Yes, I hate shorting to (it should not be allowed IMHO), but to suggest that CLLN’s situation is because of shorting is also wrong. The blame lies with the company who is solely to blame for its disastrous business results

I am even more surprised by the nature of so many comments on this B.B. Most seem to take their wishes for reality, when all one needs to do is read up on the many business sections of the newspapers to understand how precarious this is. To hope that the sp will miraculously recover just like that is either naive or dishonest (hoping people will buy shares). The RNS on Friday couldn’t be clearer: significant shareholder dilution is around the corner. It is not a question of “if”, merely “when”. This will get worse before it gets better. Don’t take your wishes for granted! If you want to buy in, simply wait for the equity raise and the predictable plunge in the sp that will accompany it. That is your moment to buy; anything earlier is foolish IMHO.

totally agree. Just show the whole Brexit saga is all about emotions

Reason why this SP has dropped is because RB has posted poor sales performances in the last couple of Qrtly results. It's that simple. Same thing happened today: LFL growth is down and lower vs city's expectations. That is a massive thing for a company that used to beat expectations from the city at each quarterly update for over a decade. In addition the virus attack disrupted supply to the trade, law suit in Korea and board member leaving the company. Short term, I don't expect a turnaround but mid term this could be an exciting share. The company always does what is right for the business and the restructure announced today is further testimony to that. Def a share to watch for me and look for an interesting entry point which may be between here and mid 60's - all IMHO

sorry for all of you. hope long term some good comes out of it. GLA

glad I sold out, albeit at a loss a couple of weeks ago

Fair point. Though he does not strike me as a commercial genius based on presentations and content of his communication,