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@whosnext
"If I were in the place of the BOD, I would try to scare the holders of POG's debt. "You subscribe to other Bonds (for those that are due in 2022) or we let POG go bankrupt and you lose almost everything."
Doesn't work like that, otherwise every company could issue bonds, default on them and go skipping in the wind.
Bondholders are creditors of a company before shareholders (i.e. beyond some creditors - peoples wages etc.. come first, they comes next). If any bonds are collateralised - well then POG BOD could release V2 of the Kama Sutra to describe the n-many ways they are f$$$$$d.
@Lawrence13
>To:Elizabeth TRUSS
You want the government to change its policy on a Russian war of aggression, because? You didn't diversify? You were not happy riding SP500 tracker for a spectacular decade? You aren't be sacrificed, you are facing the actions of investing in one company and the state isn't there to bail you out. If you are going to invest in one share, make it a JNJ that has a better credit rating than the US govt, not a company with operations only in Russia. If you spent, 100K on an SP500 tracker, you'd be at 700K ish or so by now...
Well POG may get bought out, or you may lose everything. You were calling some investors 'housing association scum' or words to that affect, I'm trying to square that comment with your view that government policy should change to suit poor investment decisions.
POG should be a company that if its SP goes to 0 it is a blip on your retirement portfolio, SIPP or ISA ... nothing more.
I take a look at my SIPP and the individual shares and overlap in funds. I think I had just under 2% as the maximum holding: Johnson and Johnson, better credit rating than the US govt.
So to whinge after the government after your comments ... it is all a bit rich...
>> "Is the amount of housing association *********s this forum has attracted."
What a disgraceful comment to make. You can argue about the motivations of some, their thought processes, I do. Honestly people have plucked share prices out of thin air, critiqued others for not being blindly optimistic.
Others have claimed 'going to zero', all the while the SP is treading water (rapidly) until investors have more knowledge of what is happening....
No reason to take a cheap shot against people who may be less fortunate than yourself. Being too 'invested' financially and mentally in one stock. The solution is not to berate others, but learn from the mistake: diversify, take profits.
If people could predict the SP of POG - they'd have converted 1000 GBP about 3m or so ago and assuming 10% ish swings be around about 5million GBP by now .. keep going and they'd own POG in a few months more. Which shows nobody can predict the daily swings.
>"Just says ummc are looking at acquiring pog, I bet there’s loads who want it. Massive gold producer with a pox hub,
> "I don’t think ummc have the cash if I’m honest"
POG owes UMMC. Gazprom sold the debt on. There is also cross default on the bonds - one default event in one issue triggers default event in another. So, the situation is, POG owes UMMC what it used to owe Gazprom, plus interest.
(Also owes the coupon on the notes to another Russian firm 'Nordic').
That would, I suggest, put UMMC in a fairly strong bargaining position (POG assets are I imagine collateral in a wider default, never read the paperwork on the bonds ... but a London PLC being taken to court in Russia probably wouldn't do too well right now). The flip side is others may want POG and be in a position to buy - if POG has to sell, it would be a question of how much is left for shareholders after creditors and bondholders... The other alternative is, war over, sanctions over, POG can sell and repay (not sure what the details on the bonds/legal situation is at al) and normal service is resumed.
"so like every share then pretty much?"
Not sure you could compare POG to: JNJ, KO, PG, DE, BP, etc.. It is very obviously more volatile, is exposed to one market etc. etc.
Mistyped my formula , should be RAND() not RANF(), but you get the picture ...
"people selling up as no patience waiting for the RNS or is the MMs raiding stop losses?"
Neither I imagine, it is going through its usual random walk [1p,3p] and will probably do that until there is an indication one way or another. I wouldn't read too much into the daily noise.
Put it this way, in the absence of any news, open Excel, in cell A1, put 1, A2 put 2 and drag down say 400 rows, then in B1 put todays open and B2 put MAX(0.01, B1 + NORM.INV(RANF(),0,0.005) then drag that down - and bingo - you have a POG share price generator :) I'm thinking of releasing it for people on this forum, so on Sat/Sun when the market is closed, people can generate POG share prices and comment about it going up like a rocket or company collapsing :)
Breaks down on any news though...
>How good wouid any deal be from the current negotiating position, Petropavlovsk find themselves in?
I think that really depends on how many firms are in a position to bid for the assets etc. So, it is speculation really. If its just UMMC in a position and they hold debt - not so great, if its UMMC, POLY and potentially others competing for the assets, then obviously that would be much better.
"Hence i see a end to this war in the coming day"
Russia tried to take over Ukraine and enforce regime change, they've failed badly.
They control a bit more territory than the breakaway republics did, they may opt for that sooner rather than later, as they've no hope on their original goals.
That said, I don't necessarily see it happening in the next few days, and if there is an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, I seriously doubt we'll see things going back to how they were pre-war. Sanctions in some form will be there for a while yet I think.
On a side note, some of the 'threatening' posts on here; seriously, people sound like they've consumed too much Chinese state media, "Stephen" there is no need to call random people 'filth' or tell someone else their end is nearer than they think. Again, sounds like some bull**** someone whose read a bit too much SCMP would write.
"The Russians will not let this go. "
True. The Russian workers will get paid and those subsidiaries will, I imagine, keep going. Whether the parent company is a UK listed company is likely another matter; but I guess the board are trying to navigate a way through...
"A Sanction is supposed to be a penalty, not a forced liquidation. They also had to change there Sanctions powers several weeks in, due to crossing grey areas."
The EU changed some sanctions to suit themselves re: Oil/Gas, so they (similar to UK) can apply sanctions how they see fit, to fit their needs.
Re: "A Sanction is supposed to be a penalty, not a forced liquidation"
Where does it say that? The sanctions are essentially about encouraging firms to divest from Russia and now stopping firms from offering services to Russia. Where that puts a UK listed company whose only asset is subsidiaries in Russia ... the UK/EU won't be worried about a UK listed gold mine.
So, it puts POG PLC in a bind, which is what I guess they are trying to get out of.
"there must be some legal ramifications if ..."
None as far as I'm aware. Government has the 'Sanctions and Money-Laundering Act'. So perfectly legal to introduce sanctions.
"In light of the above, the Group's four main operating companies - Pokrovskiy Rudnik JSC, Albynskiy Rudnik LLC, Malomirskiy Rudnik LLC and TEMI LLC - have applied to the Russian government for a waiver of the country's current moratorium on bankruptcy filings."
I can't imagine anyone in Russia letting those companies go bankrupt, I very much doubt that would happen.
The question is, does the London PLC effectively have to sell them, in order to service debt obligations. I would imagine that is what Alix Partners? are helping resolve?
If so, it would be a question of how much they can get from those to 1. service debt , 2. hand back to shareholders (unless they were planning on reinvesting any proceeds elsewhere, which seems a bit doubtful).
"4,800,000 buy at 1.449p spotted"
Buys/Sells at 70K - that's still retail investors I would assume. Unless you see a string of them and someone is just accumulating/selling in relatively small lots...Most trades are people thinking its Ascott :)
"so please answer the question - how have the US literally got away with murder? WHO recently said over 10m people have died. That's a helluva death sentence for Dr Fauci"
Because that is the nonsense that gets pumped out by Chinese outlets. There is zero evidence that the US was involved.
It is either escaped from Wuhan lab (poor handling procedures) or wet-market (poor hygiene) either way, claiming it didn't originate with China is just nonsense, it did.
"Yet nobody holds the yanks responsible for genocide of 10m+...why is that do you think?"
Covid-19? That's from China, possibly their lab, not sure why you are blaming the US, they didn't run the lab and didn't runt he wet-market where the virus likely originated.
As for complete doom, not going to happen. Dollar is still the reserve currency, if anything it will strengthen in the short-mid term, that may change one day, but it won't be soon and it won't be during the current market correction.
Honestly, if stocks come back 30% from their highs, its nothing more than more sensible pricing and likely a chance to make money with quality stocks.
"It all depends on tomorrow for me the Dow is down 3.71% so I can see some serious selling in the morning. I have just transferred what I have left to cash. So everyone is losing money, me included so I will sleep on it, I might get up tomorrow and stop dealing, or I might get up with some optimism, who knows. However good luck everybody."
One side-effect of Brexit is that the FTSE never really had a ramp up the way the SP500 did. I took some profits on SP500 tracker at the start of the year, left everything as-is with FTSE tracker. Personally, I think whilst markets go down from here so that they are 30% off highs, you can never time markets, so maybe pound/dollar cost averaging down isn't so bad, particularly with some FTSE stocks, that you hope will over say 5-10 years really have room to grow.
There are also investment trusts with great track record that may have large discount to NAV etc...
If you look at SP500, I think I may start buying individual shares like JNJ, KO, etc. if the market falls further, and I'm sure it will.
As for POG, I still think it is [1p,3p] day traders stock, with people trying to catch swings in momentum - until something more substantive one way or another is released. Personally, and just an opinion.
1. Coupon plus GPB debt = 90mn (Without redeeming the bonds in Nov).
2. Market Cap is about 60mn
3. Firms will buy distressed debt not assuming 100% recovery rate, but if they make 12% say - that's a great investment for them, bondholders are before equity holders when it comes to getting money. Given 1./2. You can't see bond holders wanting a debt/equity swap; they'll want to take a chunk.
4. Could work out well, but I've no idea what goes on behind closed doors - in Russia and in this climate.
5. Stock valuations on this board are just random guesses, nobody has worked out anything and it is mainly people wanting to confirm their own biases.
sam747 "just been a buy of 14.92k"
The share price is in a random walk of 1p-3p with good/bad news and general market affect it.
It is at that level for a reason: high risk (possibly high reward).
15K is someone taking a punt, that isn't anyone 'investing' and certainly not some institution, if you look at the value of all the trades, you can see this is a day-traders stock, where people are looking to make cash out of swings in momentum. But at tiny values/stakes basically.
Lohen "Lewis, when was the last trade on those notes? I don't think they're liquid at all so any 'quote' must be taken with a grain of salt. What's the trading volume on those bonds?"
I think the fact that you had bond market pricing in (at least according to the website I looked at) at one point, 1000%+ yield to maturity, that was a pretty good indication that there might not be a coupon payment. I said the same a few weeks ago. The RNS seems to have confirmed it.
What that means? I'm not sure, but bondholders come first.
"but has some lets say 10% credit default/bankruptcy risk"
Just curious, how have you worked out the 10% figure? Looking at where the Nov notes are trading, that seems a little a off to me, but would be interested in knowing where you get 10% from?
" My honest opinion is that we are getting fleeced"
I think most shares have been 'rinsed' over the last few days, I'd say (and I've pointed out POG is a gamble high risk/high reward) its pretty much following a random path 1p-3p which is being driven by general market & low value trades - private investors/day traders trying to make a few quid on momentum, If you could time every move in POG :) I'm not sure there have been any large value trades in this stock recently, it is beaten down for a reason. If I had cash I didn't mind losing completely (sadly I don't), I'd maybe have a punt, but it is a trip to the bookies rather than an investment.