Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"Is the change on MOEX company decision or related to government???"
Likely the exchange themselves. How they come to those decisions in Russia, I don't know.
"Pension funds had been banned on LSE ages ago, " ????
The RNS refers to retail investors & pension funds in Russia I believe.
Side note: I think the RNS was announced after MOEX close (so the comment about it not affecting MOEX POGR price was true, it wouldn't have done , if it was announced after the close).
"Lewis I jumped the gun and read the wrong RNS"
The CYA RNS from about a month ago is there, the one today is about the listing status on the Moex.
I'm not sure it affects final outcome, but either way, it isn't great for the share price. I suspect some retail
investors on MOEX would dump the share (what would you do if you were told 'no more buys'). Not sure how many
Russian pension funds had actually invested in the share anyway ... but if they were on some mining index in Russia and now off it, there may be some 'automatic' sells on MOEX, would be my guess.
>Immaterial to us, unless anyone is using MOEX to trade this. Not sure on what 'qualified' retail investors constitutes, and >pension funds cannot *buy* POG but nothing said about *holding*.
If you are a retail investor on the MOEX, you get told - you can longer buy this stock , are you more likely to hold or sell.
Same with pension funds. May not alter final outcome but I don't think you could put a positive spin on that.
"It won't go bust as the Kremlin would support it."
POG Plc would be allowed to go bankrupt. I wouldn't conflate POG operations with the PLC though. Of course there is no chance the workers there will be out of jobs, they won't be. But, to imply that means the PLC is also safe isn't true. I guess a lot depends on how it plays out with UMMC/Nordic - they've coupon and bond redemption, not sure what the terms of the bonds were , if they were secured , if so, what collateral etc. etc. Wait and see, I think people are essentially taking a gamble on the end result of 'schenanigans'.
"Our MCAP is £44m yet GGP is £413m and they have not mined a single oz of gold."
GGP, all resources are in Australia.
"https://petropavlovskplc.com/sustainability/our-people/"
I don't think anyone would suggest that the Russian operations won't continue as normal. They will.
Whether the London based 'PLC' still owns them in a few months is I think open to ... what is going on with debt, UMMC, etc. etc.
"Difference in quantity of buys over sells is huge.
Positive sign.
"
Interesting. What's the volume (num. trades) and very roughly average value of the trades?
apologies, something went wrong with the post... not sure it put lots of '????' into it...
"POG is actually holding up quite well considering"
Lol. That's the sprit, 93% down YOY ...
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Who knows though, if the BOD pull a Rabbit out of the hat ....
"Now what?"
I think there is minuscule volume by value, so spreads/volatility etc. I'd say your in the same wait-see boat. TBH, most things are being sold off today, 30mins until BoE will probably bottle the necessary 50-75bp rate hike, go for 25bp, GBP will ultimately go down even more in the next few months, we'll then import inflation - and we'll be in a worse position :)
Well that's my prediction, could be wrong...
"In lieu of discounted cash flow see Ebitda multipliers. Now compare with margin in accounts. Equate share price with market cap. Is your answer 1-3p?"
I said the trading range was [1,3]p.
"In lieu of discounted cash flow s"
... Why exactly? Surely you aren't seriously comparing POG (London based miner with sole asset in Russia) to ... well ... anything, so no, I'm afraid that is your wishful thinking. Why not take a look at Barrick Gold and scale SP, lol.
"And don`t think your clever ? deramping works it fools noone."
"you're", "no one"
Ok, whilst I generally ignore morons .... I pointed out that people making stock price predictions never seem to back them up with any fundamental analysis.
Regardless, of the other poster, who missed the point: You could for example, look at the gold in the mines (projection), interest rates (yield curve) and forward curve of gold, costs, and roughly discount the future cash flows to get some intrinsic value for the share. That would be a starting point. But, always, some random number plucked from the air...
as some emotional support for a position. That's not a great way, I'd argue to go about trying to assess the value of anything.
Similarly, comment about Ukraine, seem to be entirely based on the fact that the person making the comment happens to hold POG shares. There is an air of desperation about those posts...
"Irrespective of what happens to POG surely the west has to realise the sanctions are not working. All it’s doing is bringing misery to the poor in the west. "
Complete self interested nonsense. Sanctions will work. They will take time. Inflation isn't exclusively due to war in Ukraine.
As bad a the 'POG is worth Xp' with zero thought to how to calculate a share price. No understanding whatsoever, plucking random numbers out of thin air.
POG is still in its [1p,3p] and there it will likely stay until there is some definitive outcome re: servicing debt and selling assets.
"I believe the ANTIMONOPOLY in these circumstances will not approve the UMMC application when you have the livelihood of some 9000 staff to consider. Putin may have a say in the conduct of large corporates. You should search for a video of him making an executive of a company sign a paper to open up the doors of a closed factory, I can't immediately think which one it was.
"
I have absolutely zero doubt that the workers in Russia will be fine. Nobody there will lose their jobs. The only question is who will own the mines/equipment.
However I don't think you can suggest that the operations and the finance are inextricably tied together, they simply are not.
I'm not convinced that a London based PLC can keep hold of the assets, given their debt (default) position. With UMMC holding that debt and wanting (I presume) some/all of POG assets, at (as you would expect) as cheap a price as possible.
I think very few people know what is happening, likely outcome, as the decisions are likely going to be made in Russia.
"Bitcoin Cash is another potential 10x and you can find it on Coinbase."
Hmmm... If someone buys a pair of speakers and the end up in value close to their total POG holdings, advising a shift out of POG and into crypto might be seen a little bit of 'out of the frying pan...' and in the 'high risk'. My view on crypto- the modern Tulip. People who were going to make big money have done. In some cases (LUNA) to me that always looked like a straightforward Ponzi scheme, and criminal that he was allowed to do it... a dressed up Ponzi is how many crypto 'stable coins' appear to me.
It is hard to know where to invest at the moment. I still think equities (why would you buy bonds now) and probably all world index and leave aside a 'play money' fund for stuff like POG, where you know that if all goes to zero, it would be no worse than a bad day for your overall portfolio.
As for POG, looks like it is wait-and-see. The RNS was a partly CYA (we don't want to be sued) but seemed fairly explicit..
IDK about the secret news, but in keeping with the board posts:
!! Someone just dumped 255 shares !!
10-Jun-22 08:08:01 1.416 255 Sell* 1.301 1.549 3.61 O
What did they know, other than maybe wanted to get a Skinny-flat-white and a chocolate chunk cookie from S'BUCKS rather than keep the 'diamond hands' on LSE: POG.
"yes , pretty much won ..."
Lol... taking over the corner shop when you live next door .. the Russian army is literally next door to Ukraine, they've been and are a dismal failure. You may want sanctions lifted b/c of POG.L shares but that won't happen anytime soon.
Sanctions, war, lets see where we are a year from now. Russia has marginally increased what the separatists already held, and lost their Black-sea flagship to a country that doesn't have a functioning army. They're a failure and sanctions should stay there until even they realise that.
@JohnNth : "I cannot see...."
You can't see beyond a narrative that supports your own thinking/investment decisions. You don't like the fact that people may act that negatively impacts your investments. Even if that may the correct thing to do. Tough, I guess.
"a private set of investors know something for sure"
IDK, but investing say 1K at a time might be racking up the transaction costs, if they are looking to stake build :)
>You were not happy riding SP500 tracker for a spectacular decade?
i.e. the SP500 had a spectacular decade. You chose to invest in POG, that isn't a concern of the government.
The national interest is, and all taxpayers are helping fund the response to Russian aggression. It is in our best interests long term that they do, even if that means people lose money on POG shares.
If you are investing in a pension, you don't invest a sizeable amount in a company whose only assets are in Russia, if you do, that's not a concern of the government. Still go back to you comment about 'housing association scum' ... and you want the government to change policy to suit your investment decisions...