Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
>so why is it 1p and not 30 p ?
>Really cannot see it going for 200 mill or whatever
You could start say with the intrinsic value of the stock should be: the present value of all the future cash flows.
So you could look at the capacity of the mines and forward curve for gold and start working it all out. Which,
if you were a value investor, that's what you'd have to do for every stock you look at. Hence, most 'value investors' I know are gamblers, better off with index funds tbh...
But fundamentally, 'POG should be worth X ' statements on here are just ramblings with no idea whatsoever...
Look at the corporate governance of the country they operate in ... could you image what POG would be worth, were they holding assets in Canada say?
As I see it, POG is interesting stock, but its price reflects the risks (and not just recent ones, e.g., any company with debt, investors may think 'oh, is there a likely debt-equity that might dilute shareholders', 'who owns the debt', etc. etc.) clearly being a British listed company in Russia right now, could present additional challenges.
I think the company press-releases have directly communicated those risks.
But if you think the value of a given stock should be 'X', it would be good to see a breakdown at how you arrived at X, if you can't do that, you want to ask yourself how thoroughly you've researched the stock...
"or is being held down by the MM ."
Generally, I think some of the talk around MM is bordering on the QANon level of conspiracy theories... they want to maintain inventory that is true, but I doubt they are out to get you, more volume they do the better...
At this price, the volumes/values are tiny. It is in the v. v. high risk (and granted if things go well v. v. high reward) bracket. But, I doubt MM are conspiring against you. It is, what is, a risky bet, rather than a value investing no-brainer.
Nathan90 "I would say bar a few most of the people here are twats"
I would say some on here don't understand the meaning on the word "irony".
"economic statistics shows we have 40% less investment pouring into the city. 38% less buyers of the multi billion apartment flats in the city of London."
Not sure where the 40% less comes from or whether it is related to general market activity and economic cycles elsewhere ... Certainly London becoming a centre for cleaning Russian money was/is a problem that would ultimately be very bad for the City. We certainly don't need more fuel to house price inflation too, because if you lock youngsters out of the housing market added to everything else - who knows who they will turn to politically eventually...
That together with our libel laws - which have been criticised in foreign governments, have led to the wider City getting a reputation that other governments would start to look at: very bad for the City. The City can do without Russian money - and needs to.
"The sooner this farce stops the better, "
No, the sooner Russia fails the better.
"By sanctioning Russia we're sanctioning ourselves to higher inflation and lower standard of living. "
Short-termist and nonsense. Money printing has led to high inflation and the effects have been amplified.
The whole set of comments are people desperate for conformation bias.
Some idiot 'added me to a filter' because I pointed out that you could get a yield of 1000%+ percent by November.
You really need to step back and think- in today's market, what investment could give that sort of yield - and if so, what is the corresponding level of risk?
POG is a volatile stock 1p-5p and I don't think anything but some 'resolution' would take it out of that day trading range - look at the trades, all minuscule volume in value, so its people really gambling on a random walk at this stage.
Yes, if something extraordinary happens it could prove profitable - but this isn't a Benjamin Graham value investing type stock that some complete idiots are suggesting it is. You have the regulatory risk that would make un-investable to a value investor at this stage.
If anyone wants (prob. v. risky) punt on POG survival, then google "PETROPAVLOVSK 2016 LTD.DL-NOTES 2017(22/22)"
Market insider website shows:
Face value: 100.
Trading at: 12.23
For something maturing, 11/14/2022 with a 8.125% coupon (semi annual), next coupon due to be paid: 5/14/2022.
If those prices are accurate, for everyone that thinks POG will 100% survive: you could get your 8x/9x by November.
With no need to worry about the share price.
Equally, of course, that tells you what the bond market thinks ...
The 14th of May seems to be a key date. That's when the coupon is due.
If I were emailing the BOD, I'd be asking them if they see any reason why the coupon payments on the Notes won't be made.
"It is a volatile stock, I'm not sure I'd call a 'spike', Open: 8.14, Currently trading around: 7.5, so currently down 7% on the day."
This is on the MOEX, according to Google.
"Surely you can see the spike that newtothis was talking about Bob?"
It is a volatile stock, I'm not sure I'd call a 'spike', Open: 8.14, Currently trading around: 7.5, so currently down 7% on the day.
That's why I think with the volatility it is at the moment a day traders stock, good luck to those taking a punt, it could be profitable, but obvious risks...
re: "Don't buy if you have not researched the company......"
This does look a day-traders stock at the moment. The November notes are trading around 25.48[1] so, if you think the company will survive; that is some yield to maturity. Effectively bond market seems to be pricing in a 'pretty reasonable' chance of default at those prices.
I get the fun, I only invest in my pension SIPP, if I had the spare pennies (I don't) I might be tempted to take a punt, but, whatever your view this stock seems a real gamble at this stage. Specially given the location of its assets.
[1] https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/petropavlovsk_2016dl-notes_201722-22_regs-bond-2022-xs1711554102