Bit of fun26 Oct 2018 12:50
SO......Looking at the potential car numbers again.
BMW, Merc, GM, Ford between them sell about 18M cars a year. So come the revolution when DMS will be in all cars (around 2023/24), say worst case scenario from these 4 there is 50% cover - say 9M units.
Based on 9M units at say $30/unit that gives an income of $270M per year.
IF SEE win EITHER Toyota OR VW who each sell about 10M cars a year (again take 50% coverage to err on the lower side) that's still 5M units.
So 9M + 5M = 14M @ $30 = $420M / year.
So this should happen around 2023/24 and the ramp up to these levels starts from 2020. - That's only 14 Months away.
Bear in mind I have used 50% values in terms of total sales which MAY or MAY NOT be on the low side.
Hansen report suggests SEE are aiming for 25% - 40% of the market.
14M is 17% of the total worldwide market.
I know some may say that China is an unknown - so if you knock out China - say 25M units from the total cars (based on 2017 data) of 81M, the base now becomes 56M. If SEE get 14M cars that is 25% of the market (again this is only based on a 50% uptake).
SEE will start to get the income from 2020 so it will build up to these levels and beyond. I've just assumed SEE pick up another 5M units (50% of either Toyota or VW) from the potential 72M if you include China or 47M if you exclude China.
Note I wouldn't exclude China but just in case some here aren't happy - no names.
Of course if I change the uptake to 75% then the figures are 21M (75% of BMW,FORD,Merc,GM + 75% of either Toyota or VW) 21M @ $30 = $630M / year. (21M being 26% of world market or if you exclude China its 38%)
EuroNcap et al will be requiring OEMs to have DMS from 2022 onwards, the OEMs know it and not just in the premium cars - they want it in the bog standard models.
The flaw in all of this is I have assumed that SEE win no more OEM contracts than what has already been announced apart from a 50% (5M) share of EITHER Toyota or VW. That's I expect is not going to happen.
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