Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
sounds good Masks thanks - and IOG have a whole load of annoucements lined up this year after next week. I think it's under estimated how valuabe the 91p in each pound of tax credits will be useful to the likes of IOG. Obviously it's all relative and we'd rather not have high taxes.
Here's to Monday, or Tuesday or whenever mid January is :-)
Good weekend all
Just having a look at the H1 figures; very impressive:
Free cash flow of $1.4 billion after tax, pre-distributions
Link to H1 RNS:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HBR/half-year-results-for-the-six-months-to-30062022-zwrhtt4s43bel58.html
There have been a few comments today about a potental distribution, would we actually expect that from a T/U ?
I guess there might be some commentary around net debt and speed of paying off; from memory we're on track to take net debt to 0 during this year.
Should we expect similar results in H2 as much of our production was already hedged? I guess that can be a good thing to reduce risk in a volatile market, but with the benefit of hindsight we'd all like to cash in on a higher day ahead price.
Anyone know what proportion of production is hedged for this year. I'm guessing less than last year to try and optimise cakeism. (i.e. to have it and eat it)
Looking forward to two weeks today, the 19th for the update.
Back to £4 by then anyone?
Pleased to see the update and things on track as per previous updates, interviews etc. Hedging good to see and looking forward to next first gas
I just downloaded the data from here.
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
Average day ahead price between 1st July and 21 Dec is
237p.
Our volume weighted price is probably a bit higher as:
- we had the maintenance shutdown when the price was lower in Nov
- we had previously booked about 8% of production at circa 400p (from memory)
So we should get at least 238p a therm.
Production is set to be 22-28 mmscf/d for H2 as per 19th Oct update.
I should imagine we will have an update in the range of the last week of Dec/first week of Jan, weather and sprouts permitting.
always nice to see the big guys stake building. Perhaps they're calling the bottom; or at least they've worked out that this puppy is throwing off enough cash to be debt free by this time next year; ceteris paribus of course
agreed; less than GBP 100k traded yesterday and today (500k shares)
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/IOG
someone's obviously got somewhere better to be, as IMO we're going to have some news very soon.
O&G companies are valued in the market by how fast they can get the stuff out of the ground and to market, not by how much they have in the ground.
agreed Pedro, 92m marcap and capability to make much profit after taxes as proven in H1. Based on the recent interview which had a good volume of views this is a low cost operation that therefore benefits significantly when the day ahead price is north of 50p. Oh, it is.
this page will probably be updated by lunchtime
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
but circa 350p
I view things quite simply. There are some headwinds such as higher taxes and shorting. Taxes are one of life's certainties and shorting could either be for "insurance" purposes or someone taking a contrarian view.
Simply looking at things with interest rates going higher, I'm interested in companies with low debt or that can generate good FCF to pay it off.
In the last month or so Harbour have said that they can be debt free by end of 2023. That's great news. Marcap 2.65bn and able to generate significant FCF if Brent and Day ahead price for gas are strong.
No one can predict where they will go, but they are strong right now
$81 for Brent: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
353p per therm for tomorrows gas: https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
also, if I were shorting Harbour (even for insurance purposes) I don't think I would rest easy. I would have an army of minions writing evil things about the company.
My 2c, step back from the trees and view things simply.
Oh, and great that we're having a buy back - it does help the numbers by bringing shares into treasury and cancelling them, but I know not everyone's cup of tea. Perhaps it is when the sp is going up though...
agreed Wolster, I think it's just market maker games; psychologically if they drop the price a bit, some will sell and the market maker accumulates. They can then decumulate the shares by raising the price as the psychology works in the opposite way too. I'm a sucker for this sort of thing and am often buying when the price (of a share I'm watching) goes up, and vice versa. Trying to be more medium termist.
On any morning from tomorrow for the next couple or three weeks we will have some news. On the presumption that there's gas in the new field and someone brought the sticky tape it will/should be connected to the pipeline. I wouldn't want to be out of it between 7am and 8.01am on that particular day :-)
an impressive number of views for its first 6 hours live (214 views)
I think there might be a few people poised to buy some / some more
I think it's post June 2022 that we can get a 91% credit against our (admittedly higher) tax bill on capex. Does anyone know if that's all capex, and how much we're likely to spend. I think it's about $1bn from memory, so perhaps a $500m credit against the new 75% ish bill.
I like the way net debt is going and a recent updated view that we're on track to be debt free next year.
fighting talk.
lowest volume (so far) at about 1m traded today; compared to Oct and Nov:
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/HBR/historic-prices
up slightly today. Perhaps even a little perky?
let's see when the volume picks up which way she's going
I have indeed Masks:
check it every day https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
for anyone new to gas sales - we get paid the day ahead price / the National Balancing Point NBP
If for example 7 LNG tankers arrive and we have storage this might dip the day ahead price down significantly for a few days; that to the best of my knowledge is why it is erratic and varies from the spot price for UK Gas.
For anyone that does analysis - I've just noticed a download data button on that link. It opens up a .csv
should open higher tomorrow
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
just had a quick look and H1 results were 25 Aug, so if they were the same sort of speed with full year that would be around the last week of Feb for the financial update. I expect we'll have multiple operational updates between now and then.
that may be optimistic Masks; but it depends on how much you value a possible profit per share after tax of 17.8p next year. For H1 from memory it was 2.2p, then in H2 we had a few things in our favour such as a much higher day ahead price and a base load of about 8% hedged in at good prices; as such (and accounting for the 3-4 week planned maintenance shut-down, and slightly higher opex per therm) we might be in for more than 4.4p EPS for the full year. For example for the same production in Jul1-Nov30 for the full H2 equivalent, should be more than the 3/4 of H1 that we were in production, and we know the gas price more than doubled. Will be a nice run up to results for the full calendar year in January sometime?
I think a few took a profit on Friday (well done; grrr) any thinking of that today might wonder what we have in store the coming days and weeks. With new management in place we might get a different "tone of voice" in the updates. I'm also looking forward to hearing how things are going after the taps were turned back on. I guess we might get the standard once a month - ish update, or potentially something a week or so after production re-commenced after the scheduled maintenance shutdown.
Things I'd like to see in future updates-
- Cash balance in bank
- Overview of hedging; I'd like to see more than 8% of production hedged (although that was done at a great price). With production probably doubling or more in a few weeks (potentially before Christmas) I'd like to see up to 50 or 60% hedged. I don't think that should all be done in one week or month, but have a plan to do a third in Dec, a third in Jan and a third in Feb? This might maximise the day ahead price used. I seem to remember other O&G companies that have 60% of the next years production hedged and 30% of the year after (for example). Of course all angles need to be considered on the risk register; but hopefully there is room to increase.
Thanks for sharing the investors chronicle article this morning - liking the look of that predicted earnings per share next year:
https://twitter.com/rckhlld/status/1596862216963489793/photo/1
17.8p