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massive volume today - approaching 8m against a more normal 1/2m or 1.5m occassionally. I wish i'd waited until today for my massive top up (done at 29p). Perhaps the tide is turning
GLA!! and DYOR
but here's my 2c. At a Marcap of £105m with £11m profit in the bank for H1, I think we might be looking at somewhere near to £33m or more profit for the full year. Quite an impressively low profit to marcap ratio methinks
A good video backgrounder on the gas market from the FT. The video is about 20-25 mins. you may or may not have access to this link (shown inline near the bottom of the article) depending if you've read your free article this month
https://www.ft.com/content/0065dfcc-4519-41b6-9883-92e7ff13777d
Nothing particularly new, but recounts lots of interesting facts shows a few graphs and they make some analysis and predictions. In summary they don't think there will be enough gas and predict the issues won't necessarily just be this winter but going forward.
Apparently there aren't many places to land LNG in Europe. Germany are looking at ships to offload from the tankers with some needed pipework and whilst Spain have several LNG offloading facilities no one in France or Spain thought it necessary to build the just in case interconnector through the pyrenees connecting Spain to Europe
if you think of our two existing fields as two quarters and the next one as a half, you will see the big picture in my view. We have a problem with one of the quarters. And as our fellow investor once said be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
we made 2.22p profit per share in H1. As such our runrate would be 4.44p/25p = 17.7% return
does anyone seriously think we 'll make less profit in H2 than H1?
GLA and DYOR
I'll start the ball rolling:
I've been invested in IOG for: About a year
My average buy price is circa: 27p
You could best describe me as:
- I'd like to think of myself as optimistic/realistic
If day ahead price for gas weren't to move until Dec 31 next year (2023):
I think it realistic for the IOG share price at the end of 2022 to be: 45p
I think it realistic for the IOG share price at the end of 2023 to be: 145p
And why for a bonus.
- Maths
- Our P/E could be as low as 1.59 based on potential profit of 8x H1 (remember my three doubles post), and Philsy's post from today with a potential £89m profit, well marcap of £142m/89m = 1.59
A bit of Thursday/Friday fun: please copy, amend and reply (even if you normally just read)
On this board lurk frequent doomsters, without naming names (as you know who you are already) I'm curious to know what your agenda is. To make it easier for those with positive, negative/realistic, neutral outlooks I've formed a little delete as applicable questionnaire. I can well imagine who won't respond to this.
I've been invested in IOG for: (add the time)
My average buy price is circa:
You could best describe me as:
- Once optimistic, now jaded as I've lost some money here (I see it as my purpose to warn all others for ever)
- I'd like to think of myself as optimistic/realistic
- I'd like to think of myself as realistic but am long here so would rather a thorough drubbing of the board to hold them to account
If day ahead price for gas weren't to move until Dec 31 next year (2023):
I think it realistic for the IOG share price at the end of 2022 to be:
I think it realistic for the IOG share price at the end of 2023 to be:
And why for a bonus.
Based on today's Mcap of £150m and so of 30.25; our H1 profit of £11m equates to 2.22p per share. If production the same in H2 and costs higher we'll probably still be in the 4p + range for FCF/ declared profit. Anyone care to take a guess at it?
Funny how the uptime has increased then in the most recent RNS. methinks some people want a lower entry point
with 3.5 months of production in h1 IOG made a maiden profit of 7.56% (11.4m actual profit / today's marcap of £150.7m)
yes of course there are always issues, but I'm pleased with that as a result
Looking forward to the automatic increase in profit for H2 based on:
- increased uptime (already announced)
- fixed price sales of circa 8% production in coming weeks agreed
- 3.5months -> 6 months (that's a 71% increase in one go)
- increased day ahead price
- oh yes and a potential doubling of production at some point in Q4.
That must all add up to at least an eleventy-three % increase
So for every £1000 you have invested in the rear view mirror you have £75.60 for H1 and going forward potentially three doubles (day-ahead-price/production/months and uptime)
Could that be profit/ FCF of 6x to 8x H2
I'd be happy with a FCF to marcap of about 15%-20%
GLA and DYOR etc
Yes fair point Nige. Perhaps another reason such as up to the hilt already, or the wife won't let him, or keeping money back for the winter fuel bills/ Tesco shop, or of course the gentlemanly approach of not wanting to look like he's taking advantage of a low sp. I don't think anyone would question his commitment and need to see a pdmr from him.
Perhaps SMS and other directors can't trade at the moment as they only have certain windows after scheduled announcements (e.g. results) when they can. Also a seasoned exec like SMS would know not to look like he was taking advantage of a bargain basement price.
Whilst I would be hoovering up as many as I could afford, as long as trading window open. What's not to like when last growing at 80%, or was it 79? Around there somewhere.
Oh and to those bored with the recent stability of sp ( I mean since 23p or thereabouts) don't forget that statistically and IMHO if a share goes up 50% in a year most of it might happen in two trading sessions. Methinks that's why Mr Buffet does buy and hold.
GLA
Hi Auson,
Just to be brief as don't want to be too off topic on this board. Currently £650k revenue a day. First gas was only a few months ago. Gas price very volatile and not for feint hearted. I've just shared a link to company resources and my research over on IOG board. I'm quite keen on BP myself and might have a dip.
I spent a few hours finding and documenting some info and links earlier this year. Could be useful for anyone new
https://lemming99.blogspot.com/search/label/IOG?m=1
I normally invest in O&G and was an early investor here as familiar with the SMS story. Unfortunately I missed out on all the fun up to £8 or wherever this got to. I was ok with a 10% or so profit on a small holding.
Having read the last few update RNS it seems that we're growing quite fast, even if buying 3rd parties slows/stops. I can't quite believe the opportunity to get back in here and have gone large.
I appreciate the sentiments of others having nursed losses before and so would like to share another whopper with you. No prospect of coining it when 3rd party cookies are outlawed, this is a UK gas company making approx 600k net profit a day at the moment. Currently that adds up to more than IOG's Mcap. About to double production in Q4. I'll share some articles/research on the LSE IOG board a bit later.
Obviously DYOR and hope you guys don't mind my sharing. Just very excited to be in 2 whoppers.
Good to see gas shooting through 400. 418 when I just looked and we'll be getting 329p today for sales which is great.
https://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/price/11-08-2022/
This day ahead price is 7.3 times the price IOG had in their original investment case of 45p.
Or to put it another way 7 weeks at this price is more than 12 months at the planning price.
I know our costs are high (about a third of our planning price at 15-20p per therm), and we have 100m of debt.
When will we get some good news ;-)
Oh I think we might be doubling production between Oct1 and Dec31
Moo
Thanks Philsy that's a good methodology using the day ahead figures for July /2 less royalty. I may borrow.
Ceteris paribus annual runrate north of £189.6m prior to potential doubling.
I wouldn't mind betting there will be headlines soon about gas companies making large profits and dodging the windfall tax by investing in new fields.
I think this is more specifically what we're paid on a daily basis. This is the day ahead price of 365p per therm
https://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/price/27-07-2022/
Interesting year ahead price too, and I hope we're able to pre-sell some 10 or 20% of our gas to help shore up future revenue.
Interesting to think that if we wrote options/ bought options for 12% of our production that we would effectively get 45p per therm (based on 12% of 365p) - although I note that the year ahead price is 465p
Anyone care to make a back of the fag packet calculation? I know the pricing is volatile, but I think we might need some other adjectives to describe what's going on. Bigly ?
there's cash for the condensate too, and some additional royalty to pay to Mr Buffet, I'll try and pull it all together in one piece of research. However I would say in the meantime
Moo and ker-ching
I think when we've had one or two financial updates with free cash flow figures and new net debt total, the penny will drop.
There is talk of 50p or £1, but tbh if you work out the figures it's a bit more impressive than that.
Perhaps the key point is forward gas prices and potential to hedge Vs retrospective and actual cash banked. Both will have an impact over time; perhaps with the occasional greedy surge in sp followed by a profit take.
I'm here for the journey into £2 and £3 over the next couple or three years (and why not?)