Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
mystery solved, I saw it on that link I shared earlier
16:40:34 41.93p 75,000 £31,449.98
another chunky buy (I presume) but didn't get booked until 10 mins after close
that was interesting; Google Finance is normally quite set on our uncrossing trade at the end of the last auction of the day and at 16.35 that's it.
However today's 41.50 has just turned into 41.93 at 17.40
I know; nothing to write home about, but just curious to know if anyone else has a view?
there hasn't been an RNS for an extension of trading
did one of the market makers need to look down the back of the sofa to find more shares?
they obviously didn't get enough from the tree shake
come on you guys, sell some shares; you've made enough profit. The market makers have got to have some for new buyers ;-)
that is an impressive trade scored again - £292k
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/IOG/trades
Looks to me like someone buying back in. I hope they sold all those at 43 or 44 then :-)
unless we're to see BH on a buying spree to add to their oil company and insurer that they are in the process of buying
Time and a TR1 (or lack of) will tell us.
Hi Denis, I know what you mean. Haven't done that here, but have done in other shares. Great when it works, but really annoying when it doesn't !
The way IOG moves at the moment I'm with you on the being happy being heavyweight/all in* (delete as applicable)
If you use logic and think that with additional fields, consistently high gas price, existing bullish analyst ratings then the re-rate is just a matter of time.
By the time we get there, we'll look back and say yes; that's not suprising :-)
And of course we never know the day the nice RNS will be released with achieved flow rates for example
or percentage hedged / wedged
I found this table very interesting thanks Affc
https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1504826522565230617?t=fzM_zAAHbPl2OcEKnITD-w&s=19
The target price info resonated well with other companies that I know, so I thought why not 82p for IOG
also hello whole board, thank you for being so sane and having great discussions. I just looked at the twitter comments next to this table, and it's sort of like conspiracy theorist meets the bizzare (interspersed with some interesting ideas of course)
Scored, however lovely that doesn't seem accurate :-)
Last time I looked before LTIP we had 523m shares
so just updating this mornings post with NBP at £2.53 and assuming 50% of 70% peak flow, i.e. 35%
this makes £940,517 revenue per day which is a current annual run rate of £343m
We'll probably get some figures tomorrow for opex and capex
marcap £211m
thanks Alan; as mentioned I'd been very focussed on the future price, so had no idea what the spot one was... clearly!!
VistaMan: I've mostly been looking at futures pricing for therms e.g. this is a useful site for April and onwards which shows the price pinging around like a ping pong ball:
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5863521&span=2
But then I thought what is our gas of the last 5 days being sold at, and it's the national balancing point which I think is the same as the spot price. I'd welcome a link to a better site (e.g. one with day by day spot prices) This is the one I found with a quick look:
https://www.erce.energy/graph/uk-natural-gas-nbp-spot-price/
which seems to show that it's £4.6027 for March '22
I guess there won't be anything to report tomorrow in last year's results. However, I wonder if they'll attach some forward looking statement or some other info to increase the news-worthiness.
What I'd like to see is capex and opex budget for this year updated, so I can have a guess at profitability, or at least free cash flow, as I'm sure a fair bit of the inbound money will underpin phase 2
I wonder how our board were wise enough to put a cap on the royalties paid to CalE for Phase 1 gas of around £90m. I guess that's per year? As I said I need to dig around this, as it may have just made us an additional few hundred million whilst NBP remains high
nice bit of top slicing; well done to them.
they still hold a £37.93m investment in IOG
I wonder what profit they made on the bit they just sold
Given that our daily free cash flow - today - could be £1.5m of the £1.7m daily revenue at our current sale price per therm of £4.60, I think I'm going to hang on for the re-rate.
Based on a marcap of £225m we're making a FCF to Marcap ratio of aprox two thirds of one percent :-)
The maths will out
To be fair to Lombard Odier, if I were them I would also take some profits as imagine if the bottom fell out of the gas market and they hadn't done that. They will sleep easier tonight.
had a quick look at the Express monthly readership and it's 2.7m people. I guess if a good section of those saw the paper yesterday and read the article then we might have some new investors doing research.
Welcome :-)
Come on in, the water's lovely.
Just run a few numbers and I will do more research about this Royalty cap, and publish my workings, but here's the summary:
As we're under the circa £90m royalty cap to BH/Cale, and with NBP at £4.60. Using 70% of peak flow for Blythe and Elgood and half of that for us this 35% is equivalent to 371,746 Therms a day or £1.71m cash.
Keep this up to 31/12/22, which is unlikely, and it would be revenue of £499.67m or £624m annually.
Likely next steps are the NBP to drop back to 275p in April and 284p in Q3'22. We'll probably buy some of those contracts soon.
We've got debt of circa £92m and need opex for circa 50 staff.
As such some wiggle room for this £219m (at SP 41.36) company to make the numbers add up.
If only we had another field that we could bring into production :-)
oh yea, we do!
I'm with you on that viable; I did a top up in a family account at 44p which was more concerning than my own. Nice to see the hole repaired. These behaviours are all too common, but actually for it to have recovered this fast is testament to the news flow we're about to have.
One interesting thing I spotted was that it took volume of 1.8m to drop us this morning, but we're up at near 5m today now. Can't necessarily infer anything from that , but just an observation.
SP reminds me of kids playing football and all chasing it at once (that would be still how I would play I'm sure).
shares... meh
good luck to you if you sold at 46 and got back in at 38. nicely played
not so lucky if you bought at 44 and sold in a panic (I think we'll be fine; but you were just mugged)
there were some predictions that we'd have some short term traders jumping on this last week; I guess there's enough excitement for everyone. Roll up roll up.
however I'm in for the long therm :-)
been waiting for that joke for a few days now. groan
Yes BBC should cover our news. Don't hold your breath on an announcement between the Brandenburg and Finlandia though however much these two would like to stick it to the Russians.
And also to be fair, my point about RNS's was to do with a statutory obligation to report share trades. LOG haven't done that since Sept, which is not to say they're not about to. I think the key point is why would they?
Today was probably part general headwind, part sell on news, and part profit taking - nothing at all wrong with that.
Looking forward to "second" gas, flow rates and a wedge shaped bank of future sales.
Hi Aligator,
I heard that too. Good to have Classic FM on in the background. But when I want news I listen to Times Radio, LBC or Radio 4. Classic FM might just about mention BP or Shell, but then probably not ;-)
A £200m gas company with potential for 10's or >100m of revenue per quarter with very low cost base and reasonable £92m debt; methinks not
I think the maths will work it's way onto the market though
I think we've all heard the buy on rumour sell on news phrase. We're all on a journey here and perhaps that's just what's happening; some folks have decided to cash in their 10% / 15% / 20% profit and move along into the next best thing. If that is the case then we can probably expect normal service to resume later in the week.
Volume has been 3.8m so a little above the average of the whole of March. Note that this is still about 6-8 times normal volume.
I don't think I've sold any IOG since I started buying about 8 months ago. I'd normally be top slicing after a 55% profit.
The maths here will find it's way out to the SP. may take weeks or months but :-)
just adding my 2c. We have no reason to think LOG are selling. When I wrote this blog on 12th Feb I looked at all the RNS's a year or two back and linked the most recent RNS for each major holder.
From memory the only thing that has changed since this analysis is Richard Grifiths selling some of his holdings
https://lemming99.blogspot.com/2022/02/learning-more-about-iog.html
There are facts, and then there are opinions (I do have both, but they are different things)
for anyone with post purchase disatisfaction this morning, I'll share that I had exactly the same thoughts in the mid twenties, then when I bought a load at 33p it promptly went back to 30p for what seemed like ages at the time.
I did wonder if I'd done the right thing
Time and further RNS's are a great healer :-)
someone once said to me that market makers drop the price when they need more shares on their books; I'm not entirely sure this is accurate, but it would certainly solicit a few extras