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I disagree. Given the old adage "sell on news" we know that many short term traders may have chosen to do that. There definitely looked like some profit taking this morning after an early surge in the sp. Well done to those who took a profit; I'm sure that's why we're all here. (unless you work for "some hedge fund" that is.) lol
Looking at the close price of 222p up 6% with 3.2m traded. https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/SFOR
One of the highest daily volumes in the last couple of months
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/SFOR/historic-prices
I think the best view other than a detailed inspection of the numbers is to look at the sp on a 1yr graph.
unless you work for GLG (in which case don't look at that). I know insurance is costly, but I hope you guys and girls know what you're doing
it's always nice I find when there's a certain inevitability to it. Of course on any particular day or week there might be some profit taking, but if you're not in a mad rush, then buy some and sit back.
enjoy the ride :-)
I'm so pleased to be getting a second go at investing in S4, having been an early adopter the first time round then got distracted and moved elsewhere after a very small profit
re: Meta getting rid of 13% of workforce, may be interesting to note that Microsoft and other big US players like HP, Oracle etc have been successfully following this strategy for years.
Looking at the BBC article from yesterday, these are the priorities for Meta going forward:
Mr Zuckerberg said the company would focus on high-priority growth areas, like artificial intelligence, advertising, and "our long-term vision for the metaverse".
couple of things we've been involved in there methinks.
Looking forward to Monday afternoon's update. 1pm I think?
I know I shouldn't reply to my own thread, but we've had this rise on the lowest volume since mid Oct (about 625k today)
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/SFOR/historic-prices
Take from that what you will
I've noticed a couple of things as I've been accumulating these past few days:
1) we seem to have been very happy around 180 to 186 the last 3 weeks
2) most afternoons we've dipped back towards 180
I was going to note this earlier, but even more so now we're 187
I probably shouldn't be writing this as haven't finished my accumulation yet, but will be interesting to see where we go next
{I know we're on a pause for maintenance right now}
Interesting uptick in the day ahead price back to 180p
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
And some commentary from them:
Close price: A momentum swing in the markets yesterday, with strong price rises seen, after accumulative days of losses. A very brief cold weather forecast where temperatures will drop one degree lower than seasonal norms has been one reason for the shift.
Opening Price: Prices are trading higher on colder weather forecasts. The enjoyment and benefit of above seasonal temperatures may be due to end soon. An important day in financials today, with the BoE is expected to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points today to 3%, the highest since 1989.
looking at the massive volume 11m today and here's a view of the last few days:
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/IOG/historic-prices
It's curious that there have been no holding updates given that 166m shares have been traded the past sessions. I believe there are 524m total voting rights
Perhaps the same shares have been traded multiple times :-)
hope you're winning boys and girls.
for what it's worth here's some analysis I did back in Feb looking at years of TR1's. I know LOG (London Oil and Gas) have trimmed a bit since then.
https://lemming99.blogspot.com/2022/02/learning-more-about-iog.html
There's a link in there to the page on IOG's website with the holdings of major holders 62% of the issued shares.
GLA and DYOR
agreed - the fundamentals are good.
Board say they're happy in many different scenarios
it's difficult to forecast GBP revenues with the gas price pinging all over the place, but looking in the rear view mirror we should have about 5 or 6p profit after all taxes (per share) for 2022. (we declared 2.2p per share in H1)
Production will then double (or more) all being well in 7 weeks time (hopefully just a matter of plumbing rather than drilling)
and then we'll sell some gas at a price to be determined each day (with historically some 8% hedged). Perhaps we'll increase that a bit going forward.
If you just bought at 8p and are sitting on a potentiall 37% profit, you might be tempted to cash that in, and I would never not congratulate someone for making a profit. That's why we're all here.
GLA and DYOR
it's amazing how the maths works at these low levels. I was able to bring my average down from 28p to 22p with a top up yesterday around 11p.
I just wish I hadn't had a massive top up at 29p a few weeks ago.
but then you've got to be in it to win it, and none of us have crystal balls
GLA
quick correction that's a hyphen not a minus :-)
2.2p per share profit after all taxes in H1
what's not to like
an annoying day yesterday; well oversold.
fundamentals sound.
Cash in the bank and growing
Check out h1 profit per share after all taxes paid - 2.2p
Expectations of more than that in H2 even after 4 week maintenance shut down (compare production and Volume Weighted price per thermador; that's a gas joke in case you're worried about me).
consider this: that during the shut down the bacton slug experts will be able to construct a bigger slug catcher
Agreed Mole that Southwark and increasing production figures from one month to another will both have a positive impact on sentiment.
What we shouldn't forget is that on current performance we're on a P/E of about 4, which is staggeringly cheap
anyone brave enough to swim against the tide that doesn't reckon they will get distressed into selling will likely get a good deal. (but I was a buyer in the 40's, high 30's, low 30's and many of the 20's - what do I know !)
GLA and DYOR
Hi Philsy,
thanks; I hadn't factored in the November shut down and got to £55m revenue in H2 up from £30.2m in H1. So I guess broadly similar to yours.
With profit after tax of 2.2p a share (£11m or so) in H1, I don't think we'll see an 82% rise in profits (like the revenue has done) Perhaps more like 50% given the higher Opex.
As such profit after tax for the whole year may be 2.5 x £11m = £27.5m
Not bad for a £100m marcap company :-)
If only we had some more fields we were planning to open and increase production..
GLA
thanks itsriskythat, figures for Mar-August are all there too
so (all figures MMscf/d)
average daily production for Blythe March-June was 13.8333
average daily production for Elgood March-June was 17.16667
Total = 31 per day
average daily production for Blythe July-Aug was 16
average daily production for Elgood July-Aug was 15
Total = 31 per day
In 4 months of H1 we made profit after tax of 2.2p per share
Same rate of production in H2 albeit with higher opex per therm
Once the water handling situ is resolved will be able to turn the taps up methinks
also looking forward to opening up new fields
I've noted down the day ahead price for each day available from here
https://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/prices/
Between 1 Aug and the latest available 7 Oct the average day ahead price is 303p
Not sure why it varies so much from the UK Gas price for example here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
But I believe it's the basis for our payments other than the part that we have hedged
Presumably if there's a large shipment of LNG unloading then gas is cheaper on the next day.
The consumer part of my brain wants one thing whilst the investor part wants another!
I expect we're all a bit like that
meanwhile back in the real world
My 2c on the wet salty gas situ; just turn it off and turn the other tap up full. those name badges on the platform look interchangable.
IOG is going to be a machine producing these fields over the next couple of years or more with government backing all the way. There are bound to be some issues along the way.
ker-ching
GLA and happy Friday
In case someone wants to run the numbers: we're set for H2 production as follows:
"revised our 2H 2022 guidance to a more conservative 30-50 mmscf/d"
Source RNS - 25th Aug - so quite a recent update
At these day ahead prices and this volume we're going to bring in much more profit than H1
IOG would update with an RNS if they weren't going to hit 30-50 for H2
Unfortunately we have a few de-rampers. Not sure what their agenda is