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I just thought I would take a look at the share prices of the top5 in this space and how they have performed over the last 6 months. S4 are possibly still on the naughty step after growing a bit too quickly and not being cautious. The question is how cautious do we want them to be; but I'll leave that for another day.
My 2c is focus on the ratios (e.g. pick 7 that are important) and grow the business as fast as its little legs can run. Perhaps with one caveat instead of no safety net, perhaps have a small one just to avoid a repeat of last year.
I'm pleased to see that debt will be towards the bottom end of guidance next week (that's from memory) and that the important ratios are going in the right direction so far.
My final point before the numbers is go easy on SMS; he does this (probably) because he gets a kick out of it. He doesn't need to. He probably won't still be doing this when he's 90; but I just read that Murdoch is still going strong at 92 so perhaps he will. If he doesn't then I'm quite confident that one of the other media monks will know what's needed to increase conversions, track attribution, enthuse whoppers to spend more and show added value. Afterall WPP is doing ok without SMS; aren't they.
In the last 6 months how have a few shares performed
Top 5 ad agencies
WPP up 23.89%
Omnicom up 40.18%
Publicis up 47.04%
The Interpublic Group up 34.77%
Dentsu up 10.96%
S4 up 7.92%
client side
Alphabet up 4.77%
Meta up 41.55%
DYOR, GLA and enjoy the ride
I'm very pleased the shorters, market makers and nervy PI's are keeping the price low for the great buy back. Week 1 in the big brother house; think of all that lovely value we're creating for anyone that will still be holding at the end of the buy back. Does 41 weeks take us beyond Christmas 2023?
couple of dividends on the way, with the first at the end of this month.
GLA and happy Friday
really interesting discussion. IMO sunak and hunt are quite capable of fine tuning the EPL. Thanks for whoever shared this earlier:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-announce-energy-security-measures-by-month-end-2023-03-15/
I may be reading too much into it, but I think it's government code for "ok we're listening, perhaps we were too hasty and need to fine tune the EPL"
whilst I won't hold my breath, I've been pleasantly suprised with the Sunak government's ability to find pragmatic solutions.
If correct, there's a self imposed deadline of end of March. although we'll no doubt be able to learn about it earlier thanks to nudge theory
Is it just me or can others start to see Sunak winning the next election.
(of course I realise that this is akin to a discussion about Christmas and you're all turkeys, so please don't shoot me)
I'm a turkey too.
DYOR and GLA etc
quick back of the *** packet stuff, and I have some predictions
- great to see the £800k a day buy back has re-commenced
- suggest any shorters consider this well, as their peak fear / peak profit may be about now
- whilst over taxed Harbour has good predictability of cash flow and has a large war chest to buy back shares and 10% here, 20% there of foreign operations
- $200m buy back is approx £166m
- £166m at £800k a day is 207.5 days of dipping into the market (at current rate)
- 207.5 days is 41.5 weeks
Quick summary: give it a few days to mop up the free float. Or perhaps it will take 2 weeks. But this firepower will be with us for 41 weeks. (er... that's my case)
GLA and chill
not a good day, but it's just occurred to me that if you're in here for the long term there is a silver lining. When the calvalry eventually come over the hill with their £800k a day of buy backs for cancellation, they'll have the purchasing power of £1m compared to a few days ago when the sp was closer to £3.
Very small consolation, and please don't shoot me. Just trying to cheer myself up.
I guess we all know that markets are driven by fear and greed. Fear has obviously got the upper hand this week.
let's remember that we don't own assets that have gone down in value like Credit Suisse have
Ours have gone up in value, and produce enough cash to pay off all our debt.
couple of weeks time there will be a nice dividend.
There will also be $200m of buybacks initiated one of these days.
GLA
no no, you're right Mike - thanks. The number of shares did indeed go up by 1.827m (multiplying the % holding by the total voting rights)
But I didn't observe the second column which was financial instruments that went down
and the net net as you say was a reduction of 0.03%
As such perhaps they've played their instruments and made 1.827m of shares
could do with one of those..
next event is ex divi at the end of the month 29th from memory for about a 3.33% yield + 9%, so what's that about 3.6%. not tooo shabby
oh yes then you get that again before Christmas + about 4 times that in they do 2 x $200m of buy backs
$600m ish in total. not bad for a year
and paying debt down too.
when the buy backs start we'll hear with an RNS by about 6.15pm on the day? whatever time they used to appear. Then they're pretty consistently going to buy £800k worth a day (previously £400k) at whatever price there is on the day.
Hope you day traders are making money. Consider sitting back and watching it trend towards £3.30
I think that's relatively predictable, and may take a few weeks or who knows could be days
Might even go higher as buy back is doubled
GLA
Interesting corporate presentation from 20 Feb with some updates. Also mentions the H2 drill (I think someone mentioned there should have been an RNS about this)
https://www.iog.co.uk/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/#currentPage=1
Good to see some positivity in the sp today. One of these days soon I think we'll turn a corner (from a seller perspective). At this point, hopefully most of the action will be onwards and upwards, no doubt with some quick profit taking for any savvy folks that bought in recently.
A profit is a profit afterall
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/wpp-lifts-dividend-as-profits-soar-and-shares-jump-after-ftse-100-ad-giant-ups-full-year-growth-expectations/ar-AA17Q5D6
I used to work in the digital world (not with ad agencies but related). when the tide is rising it floats all the boats higher. It's natural for some business to move from one agency to another. There's the human relationship element, consolidation and other reasons. Sounds like we still have the mondolez account for much of the work. I've no idea, but globally speaking it might even be possible to still be a whopper and spend $20m but not on content. (possibly not)
anyway, back to my previous point, SMS and team will deliver north of £120m operational ebitda for 2022 in the next 34 days and hopefully some other tasty gems and nuggets. Perhaps a drink to wash down the whoppers.
I believe this is all about the big picture, focus on the revenue increase, keep an eye on the improving margins, recommence the acquisition trail once a safety net in place and remember that big US digital customers routinely chop 10% of workforce as part of their normal work (boom/shallow recession/steep recession)
enjoy the ride
Agreed re: volume - take a look at the trend
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/IOG/historic-prices
My 2c is that we personal investors can make our own decisions about when to sell, but once a professional has decided the grass is greener elsewhere they will cut their nose off to spite their face - i.e. they keep selling their position down and are their own worst enemy. (that's not to say bad news wasn't present or the main driver from various operational updates)
So just looking at the historic volumes it looks like some of the pasture movers are nearly gone. Once they have gone I would say that there is no "problem with 6p" or "problem with 7p", there is just a clearer ability to think about the value of IOG when there isn't a large seller or three lurking in the background.
Of course there may be some investors that just want out, and we've all been there. Hopefully some continuous days of sp increase (should they come) help to calm those thoughts. We all had a reason to buy these in the first place.
One day in soon we'll get a look at profit for last year. We made a shed load in H1 from just three or so months of production. H2 with 5 or so months of production with a much higher NBP / day ahead price will be quite tasty.
I detected a slight shift in the tone of recent RNSs with some more strategy being discussed with our JV partner, and of course a move to the lower risk projects before the higher return projects (that might be riskier)
All in all we have some good infrastructure and are well placed to turn it into multiples of our current marcap and pay off the £90m -£100m debt in circa 18 months
146p in 2023 as per CSV download from here:
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/
All our original investment decisions based on 45p NBP/ day ahead price
Q4 22 - Average 174p
good points Kn0wles, that's why I'm holding; amazing potential here with the basics. Then if we can crack the more tricky problems a nice upside. If you take a 12 month view, I would guess that all the share price movement will happen on less than a dozen different days. as such you've got to be in it at 7am on one of those up days. it's all over by 8.01 am
Of course we might all wish we hadn't been in it on the down days, but thems the breaks as someone once said.
has it occured to anyone that would like to sell shares in Harbour, that if everyone stopped selling for just a few days, the price would go up as you've got a relatively guaranteed buyer for 400,000 shares ... every ... day..
however, as a current holder, I probably shouldn't say that.
and when this buy back is done; you've guessed it.. there will probably be another one annouced.
have a good weekend all
just an observation - that when a large holder wants out, they tend to be merciless and just keep selling. Once done though the SP can return to a more accurate level.
Now if we knew what that should be; we'd all be rich!
Broadly speaking we had a run rate of revenue just north of £10m a month in the 7 or so months that we were producing since April last year (there was a shut down for a few weeks)
Possibly not too suprising given the H2 focus on making the margins stronger. But still very nice to see. Here's a comparison of a couple of figures from the recent RNS + 2021 report and accounts
Operational EBITDA 2021 £101.0m
a like-for-like growth of +11.9% on 2020
Operational EBITDA 2022 at least £120m
as such at least an 18.8% improvement on last year (figures not available for how much like-for-like would be, but possibly in excess of the previous growth rate of 11.9%)
Net debt well towards the bottom of the guided range of £130-£170m