George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Scheckler, I did mean a positive news drop rather than the negative, I'm always an optimist and it does feel like there has been long enough now for data reviews and offers to appear, but you never know as this is the high risk high reward sector, GLA
Well the AGM was a damp squib, but no bad news, I still believe 737 will drop, 1801 continues to push onwards, 1802 will look strong once 1801 trials conclude, plenty of IP protection, slow slip of SP on no news is normal but am looking forward to a much brighter 2024 performance, the end game gets ever closer GLA
I hold a reasonable size stake in SAR, I do not support BOD changes at this point in the process, we are a substantial way through Phase 1 and I am certain the BOD will have had discussions with interested parties. Any change will need a reset on any discussions, new relationships being established slowing down in my opinion the 'time to cash'. So for me despite disappointment on RF and the SP slide its just is not for me the time for changes. GLA
Thanks both, no news is also still good news, getting closet all the time to news and derisking by the day, as most excluding the shorters recognise the SP is out of sync with progress, perhaps we are starting though to see some green shoots on the SP moving upwards
Based on the time it took for SAD cohorts A-C to complete and be assessed by the ethics committee to allow the MAD phase to begin then I think we are due the committee signing off cohorts D-F, hopefully this will be RNS once complete, which I think could happen any day now. GLA
I will hold and not be tempted to sell despite the enthusiastic predictions of doom. Let's remember the positives:
- 737 could reach an agreement via CPF at anytime
- comprehensive patent protection for all molecules and growing
- two excellent scientists with great cv's
- 1801 now deep in trial, no issues therefore safety profile looking good
- 1801 capsule formulation giving significant advantage over legacy products
- as 1801 progresses 1802 derisks
- stated strategy to licence and clear commitment at last IM to licence by end of phase 1 for 1801
- SKIL platform
- FLT3 can still have its solubility issues resolved and could be progressed
- low MC makes TO a high probability IMO
Lots to like and is very high risk to trade if holding as news can make this reprice at pace.
GLA
Pleased to see as promised by the BOD that food studies have started. For me BOD removal would be unjustified and for me I'll judged. The SP has drifted down and with the Lens of hindsight it's easy to chart differing courses. The BOD make their decisions in real time and although not all the decisions have been ideal we do not know the detail, on RF perhaps a 737 deal was close and failed late in negotiation necessitating a quick requirement for funds, we will probably never know. However the science continues to move forward with no issues, the process is slow but at some point the SP must realign to our progress. GLA
Iam an optimist and doe not believe the tweet would have been sent if other meetings were not being held nor do I think they would make an uneeded trip for the Christmas Market. Sure they will be updating interested parties. Still no bad news and suspect the large sell is RF. GLA
Feel that we will imminently (or possibly already have) finished the second tranche of cohorts in the SAD element of the trial. Hopefully an RNS once the ethics committee have reviewed, then onwards with the food phase. Once the safety data is signed off I like to think pharmas will start to move to close out a deal. IMO both 737 and 1801 could see announcements over coming weeks, getting exciting now. GLA
A little bit of good news to start the day, Japan has some hefty pharmas, we know Takeda has a similar molecule already but there are other pharma bases from Japan. On the yesterday debate I see no issue with selling options that have vested and we're probably about to expire. Under that scenario sale would be allowed even if deals were being discussed, John and Tim may well have been in a use it or lose scenario. GLA
I have stated I have all I want but at this price I will add. The under valuation for me us massive, deep in trials no bad news RNS no resetting of 737 expectation, 1802 to come, at current prices absolutely nothing to dislike here IMO
Lots of comments trying to generate fear in weak holders, current SP is disappointing but will still wait for news. I trust that news will flow at unfortunately its own pace. When it does start to drop I am convinced we will see upwards movement, I expect this year an RNS telling us cohorts D- F have completed and that food testing has started, 737 will drop at some point and you can not discount a deal before phase 1 completes. Frustrating to continue waiting but one way or another a few more months will take us to a much clearer view. GLA
Agree that there is hopefully a low risk of failure of any of the SAD or MAD cohorts. I also fully agree with your 2nd generation comment IMO this is often overlooked and I feel will be highly relevant in any deal negotiations for 1801. Lots for Mt optimistic nature to be excited about, including 737 which will reach a conclusion at some point.
GLA
Not much news currently but the AGM in December sometime. By that time SAD should be over and the Ethics committee review might be done by late Nov. I am basing this on the Cohort A-C dosing and review taking circa 13 weeks, I suspect therefore that assuming D-F are progressing smoothly (and with no bad news RNS I think that's a fairly safe assumption) that we are probably in cohort E hopefully deeply at 150mg, slightly more time without bad news and we should get into Cohort F. In the full year results there was an expectation part 3, food's, would start this year. So hopefully positive topics to discuss at the AGM. GLA
IMO sflf is trying to turn a perfectly acceptable update that replays the expected timetable as new bad news in this respect ai think they are a disruptive actor. I agree though that the timetable is what it is but I also agree with a view that it can change, the ability to proceed concurrently in testing after Cohort C was analysis by the Ethics committee is a good example that time can be shaved off, the relatively IMO high probability of a deal at some point before 1b is also I think very real. I am happy enough with the RNS, would I like some blockbuster news, definately, am I dissatisfied with being told the current plan is all proceeding as expected no as it is all proceeding smoothly. SP for me is undervalued with lots of upside and still believe we will see movement upwards once the RF effect wears off and then some real growth as we get deeper in the trials with hopefully a turbo boost from one of the big news tranches. My only disappointment was not to get a bit more news on 1802 the holding statement there does not reveal much progress forward. GLA
Potnak, how about a VC rather than Pharma buyout after licence deals to hoover up potential future revenues as milestones are hit and eventually royalties start to flow, however I would prefer a Pharma TO in the short medium term rather than a licence deal. GLA