The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Approaching the end of month one in Q2. News incoming on at least two fronts shortly, my excitement levels are building and the waiting is agonising, however I do believe we will see positive news on both fronts. I see the 737 news as highly likely to create a long term positive rerate, 1801 into trials I expect to double the existing SP if that news drops first. But I still also think we will see a deal on 1801 before the trial ends. I wonder if we may see a deal but with the Pharma taking a stake in SAR rather than a straight licence. GLA
Have read through these all arep in line with my expectations, felt the responses to give some further comfort on things we may assume or have come to assume. It was pleasing that SAR have seen all returned 737 data and to get confirmation that any news on 1801 will be upon the point of HREC approval with no interim news on the CTN (I had assumed we would get an announcement after the CTN step so for me this was reassuring) also good to see confidence in the manufacturing processes. MHRA performance seems really shoddy and feels like no root cause at SAR for the delays. GLA
Well the wait continues, it will be interesting to see which news drops first, I personally think 737 first then trial but suspect both will be soon. Then once in trial I expect an 1801 deal before the completion of the trial but then expect some movement on 1802 with hopefully a cash runway then available to go deeper on 1802 than 1801. GLA
Yep some inputs are very predictable, me for example, I am nearly always positive (the historic Friday FLT3 RNS was for me very disappointing and spoilt my positivity) therefore I am looking for a red dot sometime soon, SAR like a Thursday RNS let's hope with some good news. GLA
Thanks HBD, on 737 I tend to think the majority of negotiation will have happened before the return from GSK with Heads of Terms agreed based on varying possible outcomes from the results, I personally think therefore this will get resolved at pace. Very positive on prospects here.
Nice movement in the new tax year but I don't find that surprising 737 news is coming and we should hear on the CTN imminently. The extract below is from the aus.gov site, even allowing for some beauracratic delay and payments to clear and be matched the decision for good or bad should be with us. If no news Tuesday I would think that could well be some speculative buying on the fact that the ctn outcome is literally about to drop
'The target time to process online CTNs is 5-7 working days; however we endeavour to process the notification as soon as possible. Please note that this timeframe does not include the time taken for TGA finance to match the payment (if required) to your submission.'
GLA
Yes new tax year, news due on two fronts that will move the price, then I then think a deal on 1801 during or at the end of the trial. Though lower payments at this point for me this is a sound strategy to allow sufficient funding without dilution to take 1802 to later stages before licensing, giving a greater long term return to shareholders. The unknown of course is 737 and what a new deal looks like as this could be the funding source allowing SAR to go deeper on 1801 before licensing. I do also wonder if SAR may spend sometime on FLT3 and resolving its solubility issues. Exciting days currently and very much on the cusp in my opinion of a material permanent rerate hopefully though up on good news. GLA
Potnak, there is though an online site of all approved trials in Aus/NZ, once approved our trial will be added, with the time difference this will probably be whilst our market is shut. They may well have material non public information policies but could equally take a view that its the responsibility of the applicant to manage any implications of news release. One of the earlier comments around an out of hours RNS seems to me to be the likely outcome as I would imagine the Aus authorities have not designed their processes for UK biotechs. Anyway in Q2 now so hopefully we find out one way or the other shortly. GLA
I have never before been invested in a share where there is a significant event that will move the SP being triggered by events in Australia. Does anyone have prior experience of this for example if the CTN is granted (or rejected) early on a Monday in Aus then our friends at SAR could be asleep and may not therefore be able to press the go button on an RNS before markets open. How does this play out is trading suspended until an RNS is released?
Will this be a news week, will FOMO start to come into play, the new tax year is coming and I suspect the MMs will want shares to meet demand once PIs can access a new annual allowance. Lots of reasons to be watching your investments. GLA
Looking forward to tomorrow, will be interesting to see if the BOD have managed to line up any other news that can be shared. Will join the investor meet with interest to hear the tone of the presentation and fingers crossed for some forward looking statements. GLA
Pleased to see clarification this morning on rhe direction for 1801. This gives a clear message on the way forward and gives me no concerns. As others have said 737 will be resolved shortly and the BOD have not been sitting on their hands with 1801. I'm happy with the pivot to an Australian plan, the pivot is not weakness or failure its good proactive management of events as they unfurl. GLA
Agreed, but I believe the waiting is coming to an end, in the coming months we either move forward into trails and deals are we fail to gain approval to go into trials and fail to sign deals one way or another we will know relatively soon GLA