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Looking forward to the investor meet next week and still hope they may have some news to drop before the meeting. Feeling positive still though, another week through trials and no bad news, would be great to hear an update on 737, something on what's been happening on 1802, RF will sold another tranche of stock and I rather hope that they may now have got to a point that they will now hold into a rise before selling more, the cash facility from them should give us a secure negotiating position in regards to 1801 and if we see a 737 deal that should finance 1802, furher strengthening us IMO we are significantly under valued. I am very tempted to buy more, but am resisting temptation as my holding here is already overweight. GLA
Earlier RNS than last year, meeting close to the release. I can't help myself in agreeing with the view that we will get some more news before the IM otherwise I think they would have delayed the sessions as there will undoubtedly be some pointed questions on the SP performance and lack of 737 news. If no news then a forward looking statement could also be interesting. GLA
In the Phase 1a dosing RNS it stated
Cambridge, UK, 4th September 2023 - Sareum Holdings plc (AIM: SAR), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing next generation kinase inhibitors for autoimmune disease and cancer, today announces the successful dosing of the first subjects in the multiple ascending dose part of its Phase 1a clinical trial for lead programme SDC-1801. Dosing has started at a specialist clinical unit in Melbourne, Australia, and subjects will receive SDC-1801 orally once daily for 10 days.
That 10 days referenced is I assume now over, so good news that there are no problem RNS's but will we get a note confirming that this is successful and sign posting the next events?
Yes very quiet, LTHs sitting on their hands waiting for material developments, will be a bit disappointing if the next RNS is full year results, I am personally always optimistic and feel we may get more substantive news first, GLA
If I were managing the SAR newsflow I would be trying to release some info nowish. The RF situation has stabilised (the death spiral has blown itself out, lol) price is stable and just something positive needed to kick off a move upwards. This would be great time to see a red dot appear, a little update perhaps that 737 is still the subject of interest? GLA
Well we seem stuck in this range, no sign of the death spiral and as others have said RF will have been selling, I would guess that they as a minimum over halfway through the first tranche. The market has absorbed them pretty well. So we need news in order to move, hopefully we will get something before the year end results. For me the ideal is 737 first, in my nirvana scenario its bought outright and as Potnak suggested before pays a special dividend, whilst extending the cash runway further and covering 1802 in clinic. Then in my best case scenario we get takenover. Lower return than licensing deals but removes all the complication of planning an exit strategy. GLA
At a risk of being repitious, we are another week into the trial with again no bad news or pausing in the plan. The RF funding is doing what it was meant to achieve bridging the cash runway until we get a deal agreed. The value of the deal or T/O continues to rise the deeper we go successfully in the trials, the steady progress slowly lowers risk on this investment. The SP moves currently are not something I dwell on in my thinking. This has been a long play for me and I am very comfortable that the stars appear to be aligning, the joker in the pack is 737 which could drop news at any moment. If that deal is material then the SP increase would give a great platform for 1801 news and would build market appetite. The shorters IMO are in a higher risk phase of the cycle than LTHs, either of the material news points supercharges this share. GLA
Cant personally see the cat as right, this news is the first step towards the end game T/O or deal which IMO will probably be on 1801 and 2. I do though think the founders will favour a TO, IMO this would suit them perfectly as I have said before I suspect they see these molecules as their life's work, once lincenced things are out of their hands, in a TO it would be highly likely they would be retained and could continue to be involved in future phases. So for me the TO gives them financial security and personal job satisfaction. Of course a deal maybe all that is on offer but I am convinced the end game is in play and that in the coming months we will know how this will finally play out. My own preference is a TO to avoid the need to build an exit strategy. GLA I will be ignoring the clearly increasingly worried shorters
In Sept and the last RNS tells us that Part 2 will commence in Q3. I am sure this will result in RNS confirming approval of the safety profile from the ethics committee. We are the in exciting times, the company strategy is clear they will be looking to cut a deal. I still choose to believe short term bridging funding was to allow closing a deal on the best terms and suspect movement on approval of Part 1 will trigger a deal announced. Exciting times GLA
Ahfam to extract from the trial submission.
Part 1, Single Ascending Dose of SDC-1801 in Healthy Adults
The planned dose escalation sequence for SDC-1801/placebo in Part 1 is shown below:
Cohort A: starting dose = 5 mg
Cohort B: a dose not to exceed 10 mg
Cohort C: a dose not to exceed 30 mg
Cohort D: a dose not to exceed 75 mg
Cohort E: a dose not to exceed 150 mg
Cohort F: a dose not to exceed 300 mg.
Part 2, Multiple Ascending Doses of SDC-1801 in Healthy Adults.
Part 2 will be randomised in a 3:1 ratio, double-blind design, and consist of at least 4 sequential, ascending dose of SDC-1801 or matching placebo cohorts (Cohorts A, B, C and D) administered as an oral capsule/s once daily (OD) or twice daily (BID) for 10 days.
The RNS used the specific language of Part 2 starting in Q3, that would mean Part 1 is complete across all cohorts. Do you read this in a different way? GLA
My opinion is that the BOD took out short term funding because deals are close and needed a better negotiating hand otherwise they would have raised. Could be 737, could be 1801, could be both, could be 1801 and 1802, could be a TO I have no idea which but also see this as why there are no Director buys. GLA
After holding for a number of years the risk of selling and buying back at a lower price would be untenable for me. News is incoming and could come literally at any time. I'm still happy with my investment here and will continue holding. GLA
Not worried by the current short attack, albeit that it is irritating, news will appear shortly and this will become a memory. The investor view is deep in trial with no issues, Part 2 expected to start in Q3, strategy is to licence, 737 still in play, 1802 similar safety profile as 1801, cash runway in place, patent protection is comprehensive, BOD experienced and not buying because they are highly likely to be in a closed period rather than lacking faith in the science. LTH ignore the shorters who seem to be making a concerted effort today to worry some holders. GLA
Completely agree Tim's quote could not have been clearer on expecting Part to start in Q3. He will have seen data from the trial to date and is clearly confidant. Q3 has only 5 weeks left and we know recruitment is ongoing, news on Part 1 will be out soon and irrespective of 737 (which I still believe will deliver a deal) they current SP will hopefully be forgotten. GLA