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For me personally I am pleased to see no Director buys, for me this is signal that they are in closed period. Aligning to my personal positive view that negotiations are ongoing and that PH were appointed to advise on negotiations rather than only consolidation.
Things have been very calm for a while now during this wait for news, I have taken to think of it as like the eye of a hurricane. We had the rapid increase and drama of rising from sub a penny to the highs of last year now we are sitting becalmed but knowing that at some point news will drop and we will have an exciting ride. Takeover or deal is all quess work, I would prefer a T/O if its a decent bid, but a deal would also be transformational. I personally think that GSK will take CHK1 forward, and think it is quite logical that they buy us out now in a pre revenue position avoiding royalties and getting 1801/1802, FLT3 , SKL platform and our two scientists in the deal. GLA
There was no bad news on this mornings call, although I accept little that would cause a new investor to jump off the fence, there were IMO definately references that were encouraging. With yesterday's Krone post and Tim's comments on 737 I am personally now convinced we will hear GSK planning to progress in their September pipeline refresh. It would have been nice to have a guesstimate of when CTA approval should be expected based on prior experience but it didn't happen. No bad news and I have bought some more in the dip. I for one am looking forward to the remaining months of this year and like Potnak feel we will see movement in this period. Was good to hear that we were unlikely to see options being sold this year! GLA
An RNS on Thursday before the investor meet session makes sense to me in an ideal world, exciting times, but experience does tell me that commercial negotiations always take longer than expected. Even after the headline terms are agreed its often the minor clauses that take time until attrition results in compromise. I therefore do not expect a deal but perhaps more detail in advance of it being shared in the session. GLA
Aber - I fully agree, I don't trade my portfolio is about investment, this is still in my high risk investments but for me the risk is steadily being reduced. I am extremely confident of medium term addiitional profit over and above the paper profit I already hold. No shares will be leaving my possession at current levels. GLA
A very encouraging note from Edison following the great RNS from yesterday. All is progressing well and every reason to be encouraged by this week. I suspect we will see a slow rise from here to further news during the coming months. Great to see no slippage on this phase and am personally convinced that negotiations will already be well underway. GLA
Well great posts on the board over the last few days and a strong rise today on reasonable volume against a weak overall market. Buyers here were not looking for a defensive stock today. I am sure we have LTH who are here for the benefits we can deliver to others. But many will be seeking a strong return whilst also hopefully helping mankind. I feel that tomorrow could be a pivotal day. Good research and positive market movement perhaps this Thursday is the day. GLA
News has been coming for sometime and though I am eager for it for drop I am equally patient if necessary. This does feel like a shakedown with shares being gathered ready for news. I will though be selling none of my holding at these levels. I average just above a penny in old money and see this still as a fantastic opportunity to further grow my return, I fully believe that we will pass previous highs during this year and if not bought out will achieve multiples of those levels in future years if we move successfully through phases and start to move additionally on 1802. A lot of frustration recently but investment is about research and then patience. GLA
So a day that finishes with a treeshake and the chance to lure some to sell. My view is still to sit tight and accumalate if you have funds. Plenty of news on the horizon, plenty of papers that support the value of our molecules, known positive tox results, known that CTA is committed too, known that GSK now own Seirra nothing for me to dislike here GLA
Start of another week, a week deeper into the year and possibly the time news starts to drop. I'm looking forward to when the RNS flow starts and news begins. I'm still entirely positive about the prospects for SAR and the returns we can enjoy, CTA, mid year, possible boost from GSK on 737, Agile update, licence deal or T/O. The silence has been deafening so for me some sort of transaction is being discussed, very little released no director share activity, no obvious reason for a short notice appointment of PH I feel the circumstantial evidence is compelling and could crystallise at anytime. GLA
I am an optimist, but in terms of 737 I think there are strong drivers for optimism. Based on my own experience of M&A you discount the value of what the target claims their lead asset(s) are worth and then add in what you can do over and above what they can achieve. We know from Sierras own statements that they had limited funds to invest in 737. This constraint does not limit GSK for me 737 is probably what let them make the offer they did for Sierra (it was certainly a premium over what the market thought Sierra were worth with momo). I believe GSK see the added value in 737, I expect them to progress, buyout the licence or buyout SAR. There will be a reason the BOD is so silent and time will tell, then there is also the rest of the portfolio, for me there is everything to like here with the story getting better as time progresses. GLA and always draw your own conclusions, I see only upside from the current SP in the short/medium and longer term
Yes silence is hopefully golden in this case, I will also be waiting for I think multiple red dots over the coming days. All possible outcomes are in play at this moment. The Sierra deal could be the trigger event for news flow if that silence has been driven by NDAs and if as I suspect PH have been advising since appointed on the terms of a Commercial arrangement.
Will or won't there be an RNS this week? Possibly yes or possibly no but we do know that news is due, it could be minor incremental or could be transformational. That's the calculated risk we take as PI's my view is still that this is a quality opportunity with 2nd generation molecules with great tox results and a company strategy to sell/licence. I personally like to think about motives and in my opinion there is a compelling argument for TO as with a buyout John and Tim could be retained and see their solutions reach full market deployment whilst still being key players. What better way to end a career than to make your fortune selling a company but still getting the pride and satisfaction of being able to get to market with the resources available to a large pharma. GLA
A number of posters have talked about CTA being priced in. I believe there is an element of CTA being priced in, however I think the current price represents some risk analysis around delay. Submission on time I think will boost the SP, I also think there is a decent opportunity to create media interest creating momentum. If you add to that news on other fronts then the picture coaleses into a great opportunity. All investments are a risk with my biotech investments definitely in the high risk category however I see steady derisking on this stock and I am more confident as time progresses. GLA
Why the Parker tweet of old info earlier this week. IMO to ensure we realise covid is still on the table and looking to progress. CTA plus Agile plus a 737 update perhaps a partnership/deal then leading into a statement of plans for 1802. Lots to hope for and all due in the coming months. We know the Tox report was good, no RNS of bad news therefore all that can be expected is continued steady progression. Frustrating though the time line maybe for us the better our final return may also be. We are all aware of the SAR game plan which is to on licence, that day will come. GLA
Getting very close now to the news we are all waiting for, I'm holding on tight to my shares and treeshake when the market is down in general does not worry me at all. News is coming and I am confident that it will be positive. GLA