The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Yes will be great to see a start to positive updates and news flowing, I rather hope that they have a plan for dropping news, does anyone know if they can deliberately slow the MAD phase by perhaps agreeing an agenda date at the ethics committee sometime after actual completion. This they may hope let's RF sell out and then maximises SP impact as news starts to be realised, potentially also allows discussions with interested parties in parallel and might lead to sequential news drops in quick succession. GLA
I do feel in a minority in still supporting the BOD, my view is that despite the commercial misjudgement that they are Pharma professionals, they have expertise on deal negotiation on the board and a strong understanding of the asset. With a favourable set of data from 1a I do trust that as a team that are well positioned to negotiate a good outcome. GLA
I agree a great opportunity to strike a deal after 1a complete and 737 news still to come. IMO this is still massively undervalued. Once the news flow starts this will.move at pace. GLA
I also agree a licensing deal is an ideal way forward, it aligns to strategy and as others have said can delivering the funding needed for stability and the development of 1802. Will also deliver some certainty. T/O offers at this point are likely to be low ball, unless MAD closure and something on 737 gives us a boost. Not sure why we would bring in a molecule though Potnak I would prefer us to try and solve the solubility issues on FLT3. GLA
Hoping to see an RNS this week confirming MAD is complete, must be due and then in my mind the real fun begins as the data allows us to progress with broader options. I still think that a deal from the 1a data is a highly probable outcome. GLA
I agree nice to see a rise and hopefully will be steady as we progress through the news, MAD should be announced if HBD estimate proves right (and his research on the Aus trials has been great so far), then 737 news and then announcements on 1801 licence or partner. I personally would not payoff RF until Aug 2025. Why give them the early cash flow after the damage done to the SP. GLA
I agree the finance situation has been abysmal but the science has been progressing, slower than ideal but we are very much on the cusp, I agree that the BOD were probably naively expecting 737 to deliver value earlier, but news should be coming on that front and MAD will finish shortly. As has been rightly said we are not a new molecule but we are 2nd generation with hopefully a significantly better safety profile, these results will be available this quarter and deal discussions can start. IMO this could result in a licence deal or TO. I feel the later is most likely given our low MCap, the open question in my mind is how much news we can release before that happens to drive the SP up and then achieve a decent multiple. Whether a TO or a licence we clearly though need multiple interested parties to get the best return, let's hope that there's 'a queue'. Anyway wishing SAR a far more positive new tax year than last. GLA
Feel the updates today were needed, after the disaster for the SP that was RF this IMO should mark the bottom and we can start to rebuild. Have purchased some more today to level down at these prices and will subscribe to the WRAP. Pleased to see the rapid timeframe as the new tax year and fairly imminent news gives an opportunity for some upwards momentum. Director salary deferment and participation in the rise I see as needed to show confidence. Also pleased with comments on the trials. I feel more certain than ever that they plan to licence before 1801. I do though feel that the last few months will have taken a toll on the BOD, I think that the chance that they will sell out has increased materially, They are scientists and reading the bulletin boards comments and suffering the stress of the SP decrease must make them think seriously about an exit. Hopefully though the data will be strong and there will be a number of suitors. GLA
I agree here silence is hopefully positive and I fully agree with you Potnak that Tim and John's own vested interest is to drive the SP back up. I personally always felt a deal between 1a and 1b was the most probable outcome but to achieve the best outcome we need good results from 1a on to keep our fingers crossed that there is more than 1 interested party in getting hold of 1801. GLA
Pleasing to see the RNS today, more protection adds value but as many have already said the language in quote is far more positive than often used. Let's hope the shock of RF and recent events has changed the approach to comes ongoing. GLA
I am also inclined to leave the BOD as is at this point in time. Changes now would not IMO create a greater chance of a successful negotiation of the current choppy waters. Always a high risk investment but I do admit I expected the rollercoaster from the science rather than the finances, live and learn I suppose. GLA
Potnak, I really do hope we see some more RNS releases in fairly short order, I am still of a mind that the BOD will be working non stop to find a way through to solve these problems, their own holdings and significant intellectual and I am sure emotional investment to get to this point will ensure they do all they can to restore the SP. Does though read from the tone of the RNS that deep cuts are needed with immediate effect to enable completion of 1a, I have my fingers crossed that there are multiple parties interested in 1801 to ensure that we get fair value from a deal. I fear that 1801 may have to licenced at less than fair value to keep the business going and deliver a platform for 1802 to be developed from. As I said earlier really do not want to see a sale if their stake in 737. GLA
Yes very trying news, worrying that this has been issued without details of alternate financing being included, really hope a raise or HNWI and not a firesale of 737. Salary deferment for shares would send a positive sign of BOD confidence. Further action by the BOD eg director buys would also be appropriate, very disappointing so close to 1a finishing. GLA
Would be fascinating to know the BODs strategy at this point. Clearly they will want to exit RF as quickly as possible and the end of phase 1a is imminent. I personally feel they will look for a deal on 1801 after 1a completes, for me this frees them from RF it removes the overhead of running 1b and then combined with 737 gives them the cash runway to move 1802 forward. For me this fits with their published strategy and although not delivering the TO many would like to see creates a clear way forward. I don't disagree that other options exist and need to be explored in my model to allow low ball offers to be rejected. For me this is why BOD change is not at all desirable in a period of pivotal negotiation for SAR experienced individuals who have worked together over time is vital to getting the best outcome. GLA